35854 replies to this topic

[bear catcher]

Hi Argento

Things looking red, is this the beginning of the down trend, or should we wait until 36200?

[jaDEB]

Nooooooooooooo...

 

J.P.Morgan Caznove’s Allan Cooke, Steve Shepherd and Abhishek Tiwari believe gold will average about $1,600 an ounce this year but should finish strong and trade near $1,700 by the end of year, where it will stay through 2014. Of course, that’s down from their previous forecast of $1,800 and ounce. In an environment where the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has dropped 13% during the past three months, that’s practically shouting from the rooftops.

“The gold price corrected sharply in April and is seen supported by retail and central bank demand, ongoing monetary stimulus in the US, Japan and Europe and ultra low interest rates in the developed world,” the three analysts write.

A gold recovery would surely boost gold miners, who have been hammered by worries that the price of gold would fall below their costs. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for instance, has dropped 38% this year.

But South African miners have their own issue, Cooke, Shepherd and Tiwari say:

We remain concerned SA gold share ratings may languish despite our undemanding valuations since catalysts appear negative to us in the near term. The local labour climate remains troubled with wage negotiations set to begin in June. They will be difficult given the unfortunate precedents set last year in the platinum industry and ongoing, bitter union rivalry. The pullback in the gold price hasn’t helped ratings and gold shares have, unsurprisingly, sold off sharply. This is an opportunity to buy selectively, in our view.

Their favorites include Gold Fields (GFI), which is the least exposed to South Africa, , and Sibanye Gold (SBGL), which has nothing but South Africa exposure yet has been beaten down enough to warrant an upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.

They also like Randgold Resources (GOLD) and Istanbul-listed Koza Gold. “These stocks are defensive by dint of their relatively high free cash flow margins and strong growth prospects, in our view,” Cooke, Shepherd and Tiwari say. “We expect our gold share picks to outperform gold/ETF (+15%) on a 12m view.”

Gold Fields has gained 1.2% to $6.81 today, after dropping 37% through May 7, while Randgold has risen 1.9% to $79.62 today, after dropping 21%. Sibanye, which was spun out of Gold Fields earlier this year, has surged 7.9% to $3.81 today, after plunging 36% during the past month.

[BBW]

I was being as sarcastic as possible... The markets are crazy. I cannot understand how the US can could keep climbing like today.

 

One trader likened it to someone drowning. If you are drowning, with your face just under the water, about to die. Someone throws a life jacket 5 meters from you. You have no way of reaching it but your hope soars non the less.... I think the markets are reacting like this. There is no fundamental reason for them to be this high, but a glimmer of good news slithers through and it overreacts to the upside. i.e. estimates are for -5%. The data comes in at -4%. It is still crap but it beats estimates so it is seen as good. That's crazy....

People living and investing in the US are saying that they are only STARTING to come out of a very long recession now...

[Beorn]

US economic data wont do anything significant to the market except up. Bernanke gave the market a good dose of heroin when he said he would continue with QE as needed, so worse jobs, more QE / better jobs, economy is recovering. So market goes up no mater what.

You can't fight central bankers. 

[Plasma]

Jobless claims Thursday. And with the records and such all free money goes into stocks. Red Asia? We shall see.... Trade what is happening, not what should be happening....

Hey Abs, am I colour blind?

 ImageUploadedBySharenet Sharechat1368080368.475357.jpg   80.62KB   9 downloads

My last cries as Dead Man Walking if we don't turn red today .....

[JBlack]

Jobless claims Thursday. And with the records and such all free money goes into stocks. Red Asia? We shall see.... Trade what is happening, not what should be happening....

[zoner]

Ah, Nikkei also nicely red. Gold must follow. .....

Nooooooooooooo...

[Plasma]

Okay, east is red, except Nikkei which is just up. ALSI take note, please ....

Ah, Nikkei also nicely red. Gold must follow. .....

[Plasma]

Okay, east is red, except Nikkei which is just up. ALSI take note, please ....

[Plasma]

Yes, plus Alaska is cutting their interest rate to zero ....

[JBlack]

just to add to hdb point, also Australian jobs data up 50100 forecast was 11000.

"The Australian economy also added 50,100 jobs - shattering forecasts for a gain of 11,000 jobs after losing 36,100 jobs in the previous month."

this should also add to the upside.

Yes just saw that! Plus rates were also cut in Korea I think. Here we climb again....

[saint1]

just to add to hdb point, also Australian jobs data up 50100 forecast was 11000.

 

"The Australian economy also added 50,100 jobs - shattering forecasts for a gain of 11,000 jobs after losing 36,100 jobs in the previous month."

 

this should also add to the upside.

[HDB]

another minimum 300 points up tomorrow...Resources ( mainly gold Shares) to lead the way!!

Edited by HDB, 08 May 2013 - 10:26 PM.

[JBlack]

And the US finish at record levels again. 5 days in a row.... This fall (when it comes) is going to be big.....

[Plasma]

Sorry for double post. You are right Lekkerry, my tirade is just of someone who again stepped outside of his trading plan and and one thing let to another. If I had no position, would still be wary of the market, but would go with the flow.

[Plasma]

Looking at IGM charts, that will make it a green candle for the 6th day in a row. This is crazy. If your prediction comes true, will have to start cutting the most expensive shorts. Suppose the saying is true of the markets that can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.

I was being as sarcastic as possible... The markets are crazy. I cannot understand how the US can could keep climbing like today.

One trader likened it to someone drowning. If you are drowning, with your face just under the water, about to die. Someone throws a life jacket 5 meters from you. You have no way of reaching it but your hope soars non the less.... I think the markets are reacting like this. There is no fundamental reason for them to be this high, but a glimmer of good news slithers through and it overreacts to the upside. i.e. estimates are for -5%. The data comes in at -4%. It is still crap but it beats estimates so it is seen as good. That's crazy....

Hope your sarcasm results in some red tomorrow .

[Lekkerry]

Gents, wake up and smell the QE! There is liquidity in the market and LOTS of it! I recall Jakes also mentioning this.

This is so against the norm (seasonal patterns) now, but having said this, it is becoming predictable, yet with plenty of volatility. The longer QE remains (and fights the seasonal trends) the more of these volatile swings might be seen. Trade safe and with care.

[Plasma]

Looking at IGM charts, that will make it a green candle for the 6th day in a row. This is crazy. If your prediction comes true, will have to start cutting the most expensive shorts. Suppose the saying is true of the markets that can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.

I was being as sarcastic as possible... The markets are crazy. I cannot understand how the US can could keep climbing like today.

One trader likened it to someone drowning. If you are drowning, with your face just under the water, about to die. Someone throws a life jacket 5 meters from you. You have no way of reaching it but your hope soars non the less.... I think the markets are reacting like this. There is no fundamental reason for them to be this high, but a glimmer of good news slithers through and it overreacts to the upside. i.e. estimates are for -5%. The data comes in at -4%. It is still crap but it beats estimates so it is seen as good. That's crazy....

Hope your sarcasm results in some red tomorrow .

[JBlack]

Looking at IGM charts, that will make it a green candle for the 6th day in a row. This is crazy. If your prediction comes true, will have to start cutting the most expensive shorts. Suppose the saying is true of the markets that can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.

I was being as sarcastic as possible... The markets are crazy. I cannot understand how the US can could keep climbing like today.

 

One trader likened it to someone drowning. If you are drowning, with your face just under the water, about to die. Someone throws a life jacket 5 meters from you. You have no way of reaching it but your hope soars non the less.... I think the markets are reacting like this. There is no fundamental reason for them to be this high, but a glimmer of good news slithers through and it overreacts to the upside. i.e. estimates are for -5%. The data comes in at -4%. It is still crap but it beats estimates so it is seen as good. That's crazy....

[Plasma]

Right based in the developments and indicators over the last 2 days, we should climb past 36250 tomorrow and probably add another 150-200 points once US opens....

Looking at IGM charts, that will make it a green candle for the 6th day in a row. This is crazy. If your prediction comes true, will have to start cutting the most expensive shorts. Suppose the saying is true of the markets that can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.