35854 replies to this topic

[Beorn]

Nice inverse head and shoulder formation on 90min chart, neck line already broken.

[Lekkerry]

Bear catcher (why a possible 1000+ points up), the attached image refers:

 

 

 

A: MACD has crossed over, BUT (big but) it is way-deep in negative territory (-400), ideally you want this to be positive.

B: Candle about to break-over the BBand MA (go bulls)

C: The expectation where the candle should reach up to into the future, before it either commences up or goes down again. This is where it gets more tricky, it need not touch the upper BBand band, but most of the time it does. This is where it becomes advantageous to use a second (or third) indicator to confirm the trend. If MACD stays positive (no cross-over of blue over red down, then ALSI heading up. As momentum decreases (or increases), the upper BBand might contract down, hence making the trading range narrower. 

 

As it stands, this is an early signal (candle MUST cross over BBand MA line to make good) so on the face of what I see, I will give it a 50% weighing, it could have been much better. Having said all this, seasonality might impact.

 

For intraday trading, the above works most of the time if you keep an eye and know your exit (and entry) points. No reason why it won't do the same on dailies, but as mentioned, the scope for movement is just that much greater when looking at dailies vs intraday.

 

Hope it helps.

 

Attached Files

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[Lekkerry]

Bc, don't fret too much (yet), with shorts.

[bear catcher]

Thanks lekkery only way to learn is to ask the guys that know.unfortunately I am still sitting with some shorts

[Lekkerry]

Bear catcher, actually, at this moment in time it is much more than 1000 points.

If one purely follow chart techs, MACD has crossed-over and to confirm, Bollinger Band has also crossed the MA line. Please note, this does not consider news and seasonality per say. The upper band for the Bollinger Band is atm the next probable turning point (1000+ points away) if MACD holds up (if it fails, then the upper BBand reach is not that certain).

Will post more later (on portable device now).

My only caution is the scope of movement when looking at dailies vs intraday (much bigger for dailies).

So, let's see...

[bear catcher]

Why will it go 1000+ lekkerry I cannot see it on dailies

[Lekkerry]

If the dailies are anything to go by, ALSI about to break into upside with an upside of 1000+ points as it currently stands. The thing I don't like about dailies, so much can happen between the one candle and the next. 

 

<scratch head> who to believe.. who to believe

[bear catcher]

Not yet please BC! Hopefully, another 190 or so points to the upside first.

Hi Short boy as Jakes said every rand you make is arand somebody else lost if you pay for the beer i will hope with you.

[Shortboy]

Not yet please BC! Hopefully, another 190 or so points to the upside first.

[bear catcher]

Around 34410ish (IG futures) you short the crab out of her, then sit tight!

 

Wait till the US opens, they will lift us and got a bit of upside left!

 

A

Hi A See that vix is allso rising quite sharply, waiting for the whack.

[Lekkerry]

I won't throw the kitchen sink at any thing (just yet).

 

Note to self: Look, come May, seasonality will force ALSI down (sell in May and go away). Other than that, any massive breakdown or uber cave-in is in the league of the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. It is there, at least in folk lore, but no-one has any clear direction. I am not saying we might not see some bearish down-push, but I am starting to agree with Jakes, QE is skewing any reasonable predictions one can deduce.

 

As usual, trade what the (intraday) charts say and you have a better success rate than chasing that uber fall. If you trade IGM (CFDs)... do not try and spot this one - my opinion that is.

[Argento]

Around 34410ish (IG futures) you short the crab out of her, then sit tight!

 

Wait till the US opens, they will lift us and got a bit of upside left!

 

A

Hi A What would be a good entry point for a short ,market seems like it cant break up 34200 at this stage and US jusst went red on s&p fut ?

[bear catcher]

Thanks H&R

 

She is busy building the top of the countertrend bounce and usually they make a high, dip just under the 1 hour 21 average and make another small high before turning down for the whack!

 

So looks like tomorrow we should start heading down in earnest!

 

A

Hi A What would be a good entry point for a short ,market seems like it cant break up 34200 at this stage and US jusst went red on s&p fut ?

[Argento]

Thanks H&R

 

She is busy building the top of the countertrend bounce and usually they make a high, dip just under the 1 hour 21 average and make another small high before turning down for the whack!

 

So looks like tomorrow we should start heading down in earnest!

 

A

A, good call where in the charts did you saw the turn around? 

[Plasma]

Plasma you may think that's funny but aint it true...Why do your guys want so much stress in your lives? Surely you have better odds at a casino??

HDB, you will be the stress consultant .....

[Hit & Run]

A, good call where in the charts did you saw the turn around? 

Now, backup for that tiny new high and then the big fall...

 

Sold some shorts, will get in higher later today

 

A

[HDB]

Plasma you may think that's funny but aint it true...Why do your guys want so much stress in your lives? Surely you have better odds at a casino??

 

I think we must sell the contents of the thread to a sitcom/ drama type tv production company. It has most of the elements in to make it a "must watch every night" program. All the anticipation, pain, elation etc ... all right here

[Plasma]

I think we must sell the contents of the thread to a sitcom/ drama type tv production company. It has most of the elements in to make it a "must watch every night" program. All the anticipation, pain, elation etc ... all right here

[Argento]

Now, backup for that tiny new high and then the big fall...

 

Sold some shorts, will get in higher later today

 

A

Wow, missed the downturn......

[Plasma]

Wow, missed the downturn......