35854 replies to this topic

[Lekkerry]

Argento, what if your opinion noted below has come 1 day earlier (yesterday) and +- 800 points off?

 

 

 

Ok, here is my play and reasons:

 

It is OPEX week in the US and normally the underlying trend persist until friday, so the downtrend will continue until then, the Russell is lagging the SPX bigtime and that means a big whack down in the states are upon us..!

 

On the TOP40 she is making a huge bearish engulfing candle today that should also lead to a big whack tomorrow into friday and confirm that impulsive move down to end the downphase, that target is 32670 (double top made).

 

From next week the bulltrend will resume and make new highs, as the resources and retailers will lead, financials was strong through-out this healthy correction saying no end to this bullmarket yet.(Q3 also still in the system)

 

Thus friday afternoon will be an excellent opportunity to go long and stay long!!!!!

 

I am now short into friday!

 

A

[pieterwessels]

would love to hear what all of you expect gold to do over the next few months?

[Plasma]

Darn, missed a beautiful, classical pin formation on 5 min chart.

[Plasma]

Hi Plasma what does this mean if there is going to be a fourth leg down it could go down even further?? Or is this just a attempt to break through the support?

High BC

On 5 min chart, during a strong bull or bear trend one normally sees 3 to 4 legs. In other words, a number of green candles, with a slight pause and retreat and then another number of green candles, etc (during a bull run). Thereafter a trend reversal can take place, or the market goes into a trading range to the right, and can break up or down etc. This description excludes the formation of triangles, wedges etc that can form during a ranging market.

For me, knowing the expected number of legs, helps with forecasting the kind of position to take, with a perceived level of certainty. It is easy to after the trading day to look at the chart and see all these things, but in the heat of things, not so easy. However, my level of confidence in terms of this increases as my ability to recognize what is happening increases - only through day to day experience and reading and re-reading my sources. And I still have FAR to go.

Having said the above, it does not mean it cannot go down another leg, but it gives an indication that the run might be ending and the market might start ranging to the right or reverse again.

Hope it helps

[Lekkerry]

Well done C-Orange (your 100 pointer is there)!

 

Goes to show, trade the charts, not the sentiment or expectation!

[ClockworkOrange]

Went long @33420, let's see if the triple bottom holds, tight stop at 33350

[OceanWalz]

Hi guys, have any of you found any  validity and probabilistic reliability using Fabionachi analysis? and I mean not just fitting the theory after the fact (all theories can be proven correct when cherry picking the facts and not the time frame). Problem is my fiancial education has been mostly classical stuff and NIL practical trading savvy!

[Lekkerry]

Maybe the spike down to 33100 this am at 08:30 paved today's low for us.

[bear catcher]

Third leg down on 5 min chart. Will there be a fourth?

Hi Plasma what does this mean if there is going to be a fourth leg down it could go down even further?? Or is this just a attempt to break through the support?

[Beorn]

Some strong support @ 33400

[Plasma]

Third leg down on 5 min chart. Will there be a fourth?

[Plasma]

Bagged 141 points on two shorts.

[Argento]

The 200 daily moving average should cap the upside for today, so possible she will consolidate today to head into the final low tomorrow!

 

VIX is high so don't be fooled by the volatility!

 

A

[Lekkerry]

Nope, not now. Bye short!

Short @ 33350 on J200.

[Lekkerry]

Short @ 33350 on J200.

[Hit & Run]

Like HDB said, resources holds the key. I would only consider a long when i am reasonably sure of a turnaround in AGL and BIL.

and then it will be a "long term" long  Currently i am short since 18 March when AGL and BIL broke below the 20EMA.

Thanks

[Mhlato]

Like HDB said, resources holds the key. I would only consider a long when i am reasonably sure of a turnaround in AGL and BIL.

and then it will be a "long term" long  Currently i am short since 18 March when AGL and BIL broke below the 20EMA.

 

Mhlato any insights?

[Lekkerry]

If ALSI J200 breaches 33470-90 (between now and 09:30), then this AM is possibly a green AM - my opinion.

 

Best will be to wait until 09:30 before you enter a position (in determining the direction). P.s. not everything showed short - all expectations were short, but there were some rosy colored fringes one had to consider.

 

 

As i learnt in this forum do not go against the trend. but everything showed short and know heading up. Will trend be up like tuesday and then a heavy pullback. Just some amateurish questions

[bear catcher]

As i learnt in this forum do not go against the trend. but everything showed short and know heading up. Will trend be up like tuesday and then a heavy pullback. Just some amateurish questions

[Lekkerry]

Yeah, panic. HEAD FOR THE HILLS! Winnie-the-pooh is upon us!

 

 

Just yanking your chain Jakes, you are still the uber Jakes-the-bear. Me thinks your earlier post is more at play. let's see.

 

 

Looks like we might open +- 200 points down.

Panic seems to be setting in.