35854 replies to this topic

[Hit & Run]

+-41 dividend points on SA40 Index if you long today at 16:50.

[Lekkerry]

33800 yes, but some 'obvious' support at 34000 (J200) first. As always... Let's see

[Plasma]

PipmanA long position in a Wave is a potential consideration, since it is down from yesterday. However, I am a bit hesitant to take a position now and to let it run over the weekend. I do not have Argento's longer term insight and do not want to trade the expectation too much with a wave over the weekend, though the risk is lower. If the belief in strong that we will see green on Monday etc, then it can be another good entry point. Going into meeting now at 1400. Will see thereafter.

See we have gone down more. I will wait .... Lekkerry spoke about 33 800 this morning .....

[Plasma]

Pipman

A long position in a Wave is a potential consideration, since it is down from yesterday. However, I am a bit hesitant to take a position now and to let it run over the weekend. I do not have Argento's longer term insight and do not want to trade the expectation too much with a wave over the weekend, though the risk is lower. If the belief in strong that we will see green on Monday etc, then it can be another good entry point. Going into meeting now at 1400. Will see thereafter.

[Pipman]

I hear you L.
Going to simmer, mull and stew over this for a while as suggested.
Thanks for your time.

[Lekkerry]

Pipman, each to their own. Actually no, not after the fact, if you look at a post I made yesterday at +- 16:00, I was rather clear, if ALSI couldn't muster some steam at day end yesterday, the next push would be down (today). My last reply to you is to show you how it transpired after that and all that, by reading the trending pattern (DHCP). If you have the deep pockets of some posters on here, then big swings are your friend, but if you can't ride 200 or 300 points against you, out, then intraday is your playing field. THAT, or you play 1.2 Micro contracts with an account in excess of R100k.

 

Many aspects to the above, but let it simmer for now (edit) - if you trade IGM CFDs.

Edited by Lekkerry, 12 April 2013 - 12:27 PM.

[Pipman]

Pipman, the 5 min chart is more volatile that the higher ones and one should take care in reading the signals. However, the pattern I saw forming was actually more of a triangle, leaning towards an ascending triangle in the end. The wedge has the lines running in the same direction but at different angels. The ascending triangle will in a bullish run normally break upwards, but it can breakout downwards. I felt that there is bearish sentiment which made a breakdown more likely, and so it happens. But I was ready to jump if it was a break to the top.Any critique welcomed.

Sorry P, I'm a hunt and peck typist so only saw your post after I'd sent my last.
Cool.
Just looking at the WAVes again. We know the down trend is established, so wouldn't it just make sense to take a Put position with a high barrier expiring in say Aug ?

[Pipman]

Fair enough, thanks for that input L. ( I'm here to learn ).
I don't want to be difficult, but the last two points you raise are after the fact ( broken support and if there's another 50 point drop by 14:00).
I expect that from Plasma's post that he had gone short way earlier ?
Factors such as the US futures being negative and the Eu and UK about to open in the red, expected poor US data this afternoon and AU Billies losing more ground probably added fuel to the short decision ?
Yes, prior to the break, Jakes had noticed a potential rising wedge on the 5min . From 8:50 to 10:50 we were getting lower highs and even higher lows which would probably justify his long.
Anyway, I'm beginning to think more and more that intraday is for the birds .... Lol ...and that the longer term trend play has just gained another point in my books.
Thanks again


@Plasma. Thanks a stack for the chart, patterns I really appreciate it.

[Lekkerry]

Critique... nope. Well charted Plasma!

 

Pipman, the 5 min chart is more volatile that the higher ones and one should take care in reading the signals. However, the pattern I saw forming was actually more of a triangle, leaning towards an ascending triangle in the end. The wedge has the lines running in the same direction but at different angels. The ascending triangle will in a bullish run normally break upwards, but it can breakout downwards. I felt that there is bearish sentiment which made a breakdown more likely, and so it happens. But I was ready to jump if it was a break to the top.

Any critique welcomed.

[Plasma]

Thanks L, I understood that much.What I was trying to ascertain, was how Plasma determined to go short ( for an intraday trade I presume ) at this time.Did he see something in the charts that the longs didn't ?

Pipman, the 5 min chart is more volatile that the higher ones and one should take care in reading the signals. However, the pattern I saw forming was actually more of a triangle, leaning towards an ascending triangle in the end. The wedge has the lines running in the same direction but at different angels. The ascending triangle will in a bullish run normally break upwards, but it can breakout downwards. I felt that there is bearish sentiment which made a breakdown more likely, and so it happens. But I was ready to jump if it was a break to the top.

Any critique welcomed.

[Lekkerry]

Just adding to this, if ALSI can drop another 50 points by 14:00 (when the next 4h chart candle is posted), chances are very good the next turn-around point is only at 33800 (J200).

[Lekkerry]

Pipman, FYI, my queue was a couple of things:

 

Look at ... say 15m chart since 08:30. As Jakes said, the bulls were getting nowhere after repeated attempts. But that in its own was not enough, revisiting the 1h chart, you see the mentioned pattern has just broken over into bear territory.

 

It was double confirmation - for me!

 

Thanks L, I understood that much.
What I was trying to ascertain, was how Plasma determined to go short ( for an intraday trade I presume ) at this time.
Did he see something in the charts that the longs didn't ?

Edited by Lekkerry, 12 April 2013 - 11:53 AM.

[Pipman]

Thanks L, I understood that much.
What I was trying to ascertain, was how Plasma determined to go short ( for an intraday trade I presume ) at this time.
Did he see something in the charts that the longs didn't ?

[Lekkerry]

Next stop, possibly 34000 and then 33800 (J200). The curve-ball is still earnings season in US. If commodities and resources post exceptional results, things might be volatile (whilst going down).

[Lekkerry]

Pipman, the below pattern is well in play (still) and will be for some time. It doesn't imply ALSI wont go up again (say next week), it will just post lower highs. But the trend is well entrenched for now. 

 

Trending.jpg

 

Sorry boys....
  
Interesting trend, the past couple of days and weeks, that I am noticing: after ALSI turned for the negative +- Feb / March 2013.
 
Background: Breaches of the MA (Bollinger Band) into positive (using 1 hour chart) alongside using a standard MACD as a confirmation (where MACD crossed into positive) – at that specific crossing points (since Feb / March) where both BBand and MACD gave a possible BUY signal, such signals were very short-lived, where ALSI gave at most 200 to 400 points gain, then came down for a substantial drop thereafter.
 
My point: Lower highs galore in play here.
 
My question and red flag: Will this pattern continue, be careful for going after big swings currently?

[Pipman]

Well done Plasma, sorry Jakes.
I see she broke the 450 support (fwd). Where to now ?
P would you care to explain the pattern that led you to go short ?
ta

[Plasma]

For once I got a pattern right ....

[Beorn]

Bam!!

[Plasma]

Potentially a rising wedge forming on 5 min chart.....

[Beorn]

Bulls just don't seem to get any traction today.

But I guess that's reversal Friday, LOL

 

BTW,

I swapped my short for a long @ 34534