35854 replies to this topic

[BlythZ]

thanks that helps. 

 

G

Does this help G?

Attached Files

•  Viewpoints_QE_oct2012_fig12.PNG   34.99KB   10 downloads

[grantmu]

Depends which market, e.g. Fed did not mess so much with this one, so is it a better barometer of real activity?...

 

QEvYield.png

thanks that helps. 

 

G

[Vertebrae]

QE1 started and pushed the market up.

QE2 only pushed half as MUCH AS QE1

QE3 also only achieved half as much as QE2.

 

Depends which market, e.g. Fed did not mess so much with this one, so is it a better barometer of real activity?...

 

[grantmu]

Been trying to work out the effects of QE historically so that I can work out what it will do in the future, but I found something interesting and need one of the boffins in the group to confirm or deny what I found. 

Dealing with FED QE

QE1 started and pushed the market up.

QE2 only pushed half as MUCH AS QE1

QE3 also only achieved half as much as QE2. 

 

Some of the figures I used are subjective but it looks like there was a diminishing return on each successive release of QE funds, I also used a couple of numbers of one of a couple of web sites that are not so lekker, so the question is is that correct?

 

Grant 

[Vertebrae]

Elliott rationale gives corrective 2^nd and 4^th within a typical higher order impulsive 3^rd as typically similar in magnitude but typically with alternation where 2^nd is typically sharp and 4^th is typically complex. In addition the 4^th typically corrects close to the 4^th of one lower order.

Wowser, we have 2^nd at circa 1000 pips and lower order 4^th at just below 46000 futures (by my fallible deduction).  We just bounced a bikkie by +47000 futures.

Are you with me ?

What more you want here other than complex correctives are the one thing that Elliott followers shun to trade, because they are so wild and unpredictable with unexpected twists and turns that will drive you insane. So, do not even think of marriage.

That’s one reason why I need a therapist although others have also accumulated.

[Ninja]

Who knows, maybe the drop will only be over when most of us become so bearish that we see no hope for upside?

[Beorn]

Mthfkr.

 

Now we prob going to keep rallying.

 

Lots of dumping here, the drop is not over

[grantmu]

If that was it for the drop then not a single divergence was cleared on anything other than the stuff bellow the 30 min charts, the rest are all still in play for later this week. 

 

G

[Beorn]

Closed all longs, not trusting this, will give it a bit longer before opening new longs, I have a feeling we should have a lot better entry in a couple of days

 

Mthfkr.

 

Now we prob going to keep rallying.

[grantmu]

The Greek game of brinkmanship may have a flaw in the system, I think the Greeks have been drinking their own cool aid and actually believe the BS they are spewing. I think they need to talk to Beorn, "You cant fight central bankers" is the phrase they need to learn. Make the deal and get it over with. 

 

G

 

 

[Beorn]

I'm adding long again here.

May have some more saber rattling from Greece/Germany, but it will all be sorted.

Any hint of a resolution will shoot us up.

 

Oil is the bugger in this story 

 

Closed all longs, not trusting this, will give it a bit longer before opening new longs, I have a feeling we should have a lot better entry in a couple of days

[Argento]

The 1H negative divergence has caused me to miss a lot of upside so ignoring that for now!

 

This 5000 pointer stellar run should end in style (blow off move) IMO so waiting for that....currently busy with a flattish structure that I doubt is the top...but will see!

 

A

Well well, this surely looks like a valid reversal, could this be the start of a H&S...stay tuned!

 

Next support 46100ish and should bounce there for the right shoulder, hello return move!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 18 February 2015 - 04:05 PM.

[gannet]

I'm adding long again here.

May have some more saber rattling from Greece/Germany, but it will all be sorted.

Any hint of a resolution will shoot us up.

 

Oil is the bugger in this story 

 

Strong support here.

 

But if/when it breaks the move could be sharp

 

Well ... I'm away ... taking my toaster, kitchen sink and mincer with me so as not to irritate. 

 

Beware the Ides Of March

 

I might make a turn then

[Beorn]

I'm adding long again here.

May have some more saber rattling from Greece/Germany, but it will all be sorted.

Any hint of a resolution will shoot us up.

 

Oil is the bugger in this story 

[gannet]

My logic sometimes loses me. I want to know "what kind of an investor wakes up in the morning to sell a share at less than what it closed at the day before?"... It does not make any sense to me....

 

Beats me too ... but there's always a charlie who buys at the top and one who sells at the bottom

[@sirgrantfleming]

Greed will make humans do strange things

Same for fear

[grantmu]

and only on news of a change in divi policy... sell the news buy the real?

Greed will make humans do strange things

[@sirgrantfleming]

SASOL getting beaten up badly.

and only on news of a change in divi policy... sell the news buy the real?

[grantmu]

SASOL getting beaten up badly.

[Argento]

I agree ... the top isn't in ... but a good pull back is close 

Good long opportunity this for the final run up!

 

A