35854 replies to this topic

[Motion Picture]

Yes Reckless, thought it was me and my internet explorer.

 

IG charts just acting up!

[reckless]

Anyone else having trouble opening IG charts?

[@sirgrantfleming]

The more the bears fight this the more they pay can not understand why you want to fight the qe guys.As Beorn said the Greece story just a good chance to go long as allways it will just be resolved and disappear and up we go.Sometime in the future there will be a drop but for now with Qe only fools short. But thanks to all BEARS my account is bursting.Thanx to A with your Bullshit of a drop next week just added more longs this am to pocket a collective 2ooo points on 4 positions today. Nice 100 k banked.Good luck bear suckers

Oh man bc - gloating almost always ends up in tears! Always remember there are many perspectives and reasons for people going long and short - I reiterate the world was screaming sell when Beorn was screaming buy, back in Jan. Let's applaud when doing well, and commiserate when doing badly, because it will switch around.

[Argento]

The more the bears fight this the more they pay can not understand why you want to fight the qe guys.As Beorn said the Greece story just a good chance to go long as allways it will just be resolved and disappear and up we go.Sometime in the future there will be a drop but for now with Qe only fools short. But thanks to all BEARS my account is bursting.Thanx to A with your Bullshit of a drop next week just added more longs this am to pocket a collective 2ooo points on 4 positions today. Nice 100 k banked.Good luck bear suckers

Hi bc,

 

My latest post on friday said we going back up to complete this top formation...while you scroll back to see please post again your entry level for the magical bullsh@t 100k trade as I can't find it?Guess you caught that 1000 point drop last week perfectly too...

 

Be sure to post as you are long now when you loose it this week with the drop!

 

A

[Vertebrae]

And when all and else fails rem:

Global population growth is still riding the exponential, like it has been through all the naysaying.

Time for change being spent interalia methinks, and what better reason that mega mass starvation.

And yet it is not over until the fat dikfobrains advisor to Bill Clinton sings...

Long term target for this bull market: SPX 2530 to SPX 2630 by Q1/Q2 2016.

With which I choose to concur until it is proven otherwise early, albeit that a correction in the interim is totally ineviatable.

A world of mega plonking selfishness is unsustainable - ref: Vertebrae 2002...2015...

[Plasma]

Thanks for the perspective G

[grantmu]

Have often looked back at the daily chart and contemplated why I did not take the low risk opportunity at the retest or double bottom at that stage. Also, I contemplate whether I would ever have the courage to stay with a long even during a 2000 pip retrace. So a 6000 pip long opportunity in perfect hindsight. Just 6000 pips short of Chubby's 12 000 pips dream.

image.jpg

Can I offer a way around it and this could be happening right now if the daily completes the turn this week, using the STD MACD setting that are ideally suited for the daily sets the direction. so in the case of now you are going to be getting in and out of trades as the market dictates until the turn is completed or failed, if the turn completes your strategy needs to be STFR, that strategy needs to remain in place until the next turn of the daily MACD. If you want the really long runs then set your stops about 500 off the current level, that is assuming you will be watching closely until the market moves out away from the buy point to 500 points, no all that is needed is to monitor the trade and continue with STFR or BTFD, as you see the stock turning on the one day you may want to bring all the stops of all the contracts up to the point that the market starts to make the turn, i suggest about 4 to 500 points bellow the trade of the day, If the market bolts in the wrong direction you will loose only 500 points, any contracts that have not achieved the 500 point space from the buy point I suggest setting the stop at around 100 points or anything that shows profit, 5 points will do rather than a loss. During the turn like right now there is plenty of in and out until there is a direction.

 

Something else to look at is the angle of the run, if the angle is steep then the run will normally be straight up and straight down, if on the other hand the angle is shallow the run will normally be more of up a bit then down half, up a bit then down half, much better for longer money but you need to time the buy at the bottom og the dip and not the dip of every day. 

 

it is difficult to get the first trade sorted and settled, but once you get it sorted every 200 points you make on the first trade, covers the cost of the trade and lets you add the next trade without digging into the bank, if you run the trade long enough and time the dips well you could end up with 15 contracts towards the end of the run. 

 

The trick is the first trade and watching for direction changes on the macd and the RSI. If you check history Bear trades are short term, Bulls can be long of very long depending on the market. if you check having 15 to 30 day BULL trades happens about 18 times a year, (last year was a bit of mess) But it all boils down to the first trade. if you are late it is going to be difficult and you may have to tolerate going from 700 in the green to 300 in the red before the market moves off in the UP direction and does not come back.

 

When I am trying to start a run I set the stop at just above the buy line and leave it till the market moves at least 500 away, then I add the next one and do the same, it is difficult until you can move the first contract stop to the second buy point and so on till I see the market turning on the MACD and RSI, then i shortened everything on the stops to about 500 of the trade, sometimes shorter if I think it is going to reverse faster.  Difficult to set up but once it is moving the trades are easy, just ask B that is exactly what he did for this run.  

 

G

[Plasma]

Have often looked back at the daily chart and contemplated why I did not take the low risk opportunity at the retest or double bottom at that stage. Also, I contemplate whether I would ever have the courage to stay with a long even during a 2000 pip retrace. So a 6000 pip long opportunity in perfect hindsight. Just 6000 pips short of Chubby's 12 000 pips dream.

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Edited by Plasma, 21 February 2015 - 03:39 PM.

[Ninja]

Charts certainly not screaming buy... They screaming a loud SELL... Good that u were tactful enough to book nice profits but any inexperienced new money entering a long at this level got a better chance losing their money than making profit... But like I say... A profit is a profit and greed is difficult to ration with

[bear catcher]

The more the bears fight this the more they pay can not understand why you want to fight the qe guys.As Beorn said the Greece story just a good chance to go long as allways it will just be resolved and disappear and up we go.Sometime in the future there will be a drop but for now with Qe only fools short. But thanks to all BEARS my account is bursting.Thanx to A with your Bullshit of a drop next week just added more longs this am to pocket a collective 2ooo points on 4 positions today. Nice 100 k banked.Good luck bear suckers

[Vertebrae]

Ooooh, it tingles...

 

[grantmu]

check DAX, seems they heard something about the talks based on the jump and fall back

[grantmu]

Return move can be around 2900 points so you might have it spot on...but they happen quick and fast!

 

That other analysis of yours regarding the high of the daily macd and 3 months later we had the start of a new bearmarket could very well be true as well looking at the monthly chart.....monthly macd has dropped quite a bit and a new high will certainly cause negative divergence...the kind we saw before the 2008 drop!But the euphoria phase buying still needs to happen and will kick off once next week's low is in IMO......!

 

Still maintain my EW count of us being in Primary V, with Major 1 in its topping process!2015 marks the top of the 7 year cycle....

 

A

the upside of this is that for the next 2 or 3 months this thing is going to go up and make plenty money, so get in while the getting is good. 

 

G 

[grantmu]

20000? Central Banks won't allow it, once she hits that 49800 triangular target back to 38000 very likely and end of the cycle 2 phase, then up for the next 7 years!

 

A

What is the definition of insanity? Trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Traders need to hear this and take it in. 

 

G

[Argento]

If there is a failure of Primary 5th then a drop of 20000 can be expected.

Just building that wall, its only one brick at a time

20000? Central Banks won't allow it, once she hits that 49800 triangular target back to 38000 very likely and end of the cycle 2 phase, then up for the next 7 years!

 

A

[Vertebrae]

If there is a failure of Primary 5th then a drop of 20000 can be expected.

Just building that wall, its only one brick at a time

[Argento]

Sitting on the side today, so was looking left. 

 

2013 mid April, JSE started a 29 day 3600 point bull run, followed by a reversal of 28 days and a drop of 3000 points

2014 mid October JSE started a 30 day 4700 point bull run followed by a reversal of 27 days and a drop of 4000 points

2015 mid January JSE started a 29 day  4711 point bull run followed by ????????? 

 

so in 2013 the run up was 10.93 percent, down was 8.09

in 2014 the run up was 10.43 percent and down was 9.07

in 2015 the run up was 9.81 percent so far. So the drop  could be 8.2 percent and 3000 points if history holds true.

 

These were chosen because in all cases the daily MACD was well bellow the zero line at the start of the run and ended up below the zero line a the end of the run. the angle of the bull ran was also a contributing factor to choosing these as examples.

 

Any comments on analogy. 

 

G

Return move can be around 2900 points so you might have it spot on...but they happen quick and fast!

 

That other analysis of yours regarding the high of the daily macd and 3 months later we had the start of a new bearmarket could very well be true as well looking at the monthly chart.....monthly macd has dropped quite a bit and a new high will certainly cause negative divergence...the kind we saw before the 2008 drop!But the euphoria phase buying still needs to happen and will kick off once next week's low is in IMO......!

 

Still maintain my EW count of us being in Primary V, with Major 1 in its topping process!2015 marks the top of the 7 year cycle....

 

A

[grantmu]

Sitting on the side today, so was looking left. 

 

2013 mid April, JSE started a 29 day 3600 point bull run, followed by a reversal of 28 days and a drop of 3000 points

2014 mid October JSE started a 30 day 4700 point bull run followed by a reversal of 27 days and a drop of 4000 points

2015 mid January JSE started a 29 day  4711 point bull run followed by ????????? 

 

so in 2013 the run up was 10.93 percent, down was 8.09

in 2014 the run up was 10.43 percent and down was 9.07

in 2015 the run up was 9.81 percent so far. So the drop  could be 8.2 percent and 3000 points if history holds true.

 

These were chosen because in all cases the daily MACD was well bellow the zero line at the start of the run and ended up below the zero line a the end of the run. the angle of the bull ran was also a contributing factor to choosing these as examples.

 

Any comments on analogy. 

 

G

 

  

 

[Argento]

I agree with A...possible double top at 47000-ish.

 

If that pans out, enter die bears!

But back up first again before she starts her decent....

 

A

[Vertebrae]

Some say that the final countdown climbs a wall of constant worry...