35854 replies to this topic

[Vertebrae]

Put the kettle on

[Motion Picture]

 and getting my head scrambled by V's posts.

 

   

[K~~]

Ditto!

 

But see us starting to rally again from tomorrow...

 

a

 

 

Yea...nice call there K!

 

 

Very good trade

Thanks B/J, MP and A!

 

Since I've joined this forum as a newbie ALSI trader, my fortunes have turned around in a spectacular way. From being 60% down on my account in the early days, I've made that back and then some, and I'm now consistently making green. A lot of this is due to the invaluable advice, trades copied and strategies being shared by the members here. 

 

Sadly, I will have to scale down my activities on this forum. My day job is taking up more and more of my time, and as I've said before my focus over the past months have been to develop an automated strategy to keep things going while I'm occupied elsewhere. 

 

As a result I shall not be making regular posts any more, but I'll check in from time to time to see who won the golf game, and getting my head scrambled by V's posts.

 

As always, I wish you

 

Prosperous Trading!

 

K

[Beorn]

Ditto!

 

But see us starting to rally again from tomorrow...

 

a

 

I have to say, I see tomorrow as very crimson deep red.

Not to just contradict you.

 

Open interest dropped hard in the last hour of trading and lots of sell orders coming up on the board.

 

But hey, lets see.

[Argento]

Yea...nice call there K!

Ditto!

 

But see us starting to rally again from tomorrow...

 

a

[Motion Picture]

I'm anticipating a correction. RSI overbought and daily MACD histogram turning down. 12% up from recent lows without pullback..

 

Started building shorts. 1st in at 47244.

 

If short squeeze happens through 47300 I'll add...

 

K

 

Yea...nice call there K!

[Beorn]

I'm anticipating a correction. RSI overbought and daily MACD histogram turning down. 12% up from recent lows without pullback..

 

Started building shorts. 1st in at 47244.

 

If short squeeze happens through 47300 I'll add...

 

K

 

Very good trade

[Motion Picture]

strong long at 47014 (IG). Will add if we get to 46800-ish.

[Motion Picture]

Itching for a long...nice dip this 

[Vertebrae]

On the 3rd opening gap closing it will be precisely tea time and 30 seconds

[Argento]

She needs to drop under 47100 for an attempt at 46800. She might blow off, but I'll just be waiting with more shorts!

 

K

Awesome!

 

A

[K~~]

IMHO to early, 48000 next week...haven't seen that impulsive final blow off phase!Seasonals still up first week of March.....

 

A

She needs to drop under 47100 for an attempt at 46800. She might blow off, but I'll just be waiting with more shorts!

 

K

[Motion Picture]

Looks like she's winding up for the squeeze!

 

...slowly 

[Argento]

I'm anticipating a correction. RSI overbought and daily MACD histogram turning down. 12% up from recent lows without pullback..

 

Started building shorts. 1st in at 47244.

 

If short squeeze happens through 47300 I'll add...

 

K

 

I'm anticipating a correction. RSI overbought and daily MACD histogram turning down. 12% up from recent lows without pullback..

 

Started building shorts. 1st in at 47244.

 

If short squeeze happens through 47300 I'll add...

 

K

IMHO to early, 48000 next week...haven't seen that impulsive final blow off phase!Seasonals still up first week of March.....

 

A

[K~~]

I'm anticipating a correction. RSI overbought and daily MACD histogram turning down. 12% up from recent lows without pullback..

 

Started building shorts. 1st in at 47244.

 

If short squeeze happens through 47300 I'll add...

 

K

Looks like she's winding up for the squeeze!

[K~~]

I'm anticipating a correction. RSI overbought and daily MACD histogram turning down. 12% up from recent lows without pullback..

 

Started building shorts. 1st in at 47244.

 

If short squeeze happens through 47300 I'll add...

 

K

[Vertebrae]

Target practice...

 

[grantmu]

I presume everyone is looking at the same chart (see chart 1)....

Top end of this channel which formed from the bottom of (most likely Primary IV) comes in at around 47600-ish. That also coincides with a c. 13.5% rally from the bottom at 41900-42000.

 

As a side note - I did some analysis plotting the US 10Y treasury yield against the FINI P/E. I didn't use the ALSI since I didn't want the RESI counters to distort the picture. From the chart (chart 2) one can see how things got distorted after QE was introduced.  There were a positive correlation between US 10Y treasury yields and our market (FINI) P/E for the years leading up the start of QE.  After QE was introduced it became a strong negative correlation, which makes sense. As the demand for bonds increased and rates came down, free money was pumped into the system (through QE) as “substitute”. This is what fuelled the “risk-on” environment we’ve been experiencing during the current bull market.

 

When the US eventually starts to hike rates, the effect on earnings yield and subsequent earnings multiples and therefore valuations will not be linear. It will have an exponential type effect.

 

We've just substituted one (mortgage) bubble with another (asset prices/valuations).

 

Who knows, 10 years from now we'll look back at this chart and maybe see this massive divergence being closed?

 

ALSI_1H_Feb_15.jpg

 

US10YandFINI.png

I don't know when this bubble will bust but I do know one thing, as soon as the free money dries up the traders are going to drive the price down, after so many years of artificial support the traders, hedges, the big boys in general are not going to see the sudden loss of that support as a good thing, they have also been taught that if you drive the market down they will restart QE.

 

Now that you have more than one central bank playing the game it is only going to take one to stop the process and the house of cards will all fall together, my guess just wait for the first interest rate hike in the US, equities will suddenly loose that good flavor they have now. 7 year cycle ending this year, gods calendar ends in September, and the last 2 crashes happened at the end of gods calendar. this year is going to be FUN, hold your finger on the mouse.

 

G

[AJS]

Also - the S&P IMO still has some room to the upside.  Upper end of this channel / broadening formation around 2150. Strong negative divergence on the dailies should act as caution. Again - as a short term trader you still make money by being long, not proclaiming that short is the way to go, merely pointing out signs that warrants caution.

 

 SP500_feb15.jpg   109.27KB   31 downloads

[AJS]

I presume everyone is looking at the same chart (see chart 1)....

Top end of this channel which formed from the bottom of (most likely Primary IV) comes in at around 47600-ish. That also coincides with a c. 13.5% rally from the bottom at 41900-42000.

 

As a side note - I did some analysis plotting the US 10Y treasury yield against the FINI P/E. I didn't use the ALSI since I didn't want the RESI counters to distort the picture. From the chart (chart 2) one can see how things got distorted after QE was introduced.  There were a positive correlation between US 10Y treasury yields and our market (FINI) P/E for the years leading up the start of QE.  After QE was introduced it became a strong negative correlation, which makes sense. As the demand for bonds increased and rates came down, free money was pumped into the system (through QE) as “substitute”. This is what fuelled the “risk-on” environment we’ve been experiencing during the current bull market.

 

When the US eventually starts to hike rates, the effect on earnings yield and subsequent earnings multiples and therefore valuations will not be linear. It will have an exponential type effect.

 

We've just substituted one (mortgage) bubble with another (asset prices/valuations).

 

Who knows, 10 years from now we'll look back at this chart and maybe see this massive divergence being closed?

 

 ALSI_1H_Feb_15.jpg   85.39KB   46 downloads

 

 US10YandFINI.png   72.33KB   48 downloads