35854 replies to this topic

[Ninja]

Been an impressive 5300 odd point rally since January lows about 6weeks back.... Nothing short of breathtaking

[grantmu]

Got a bigger IHS at play too with a projection towards 48000, crazy I know but believe this is euphoria buying, even daily negative divergence means nothing!Don't fight the trend I guess.....

 

Looks like bc is in the money, given now that he said he was long!

 

A

Personally I think we are well into euphoria in fact the 5th of feb looks like the start, check the charts and you will see that the angle suddenly went steeper up at that point, the records are continually broken in this game but at the moment i don't  think divergence has anything to do with it anymore, that would indicate a controlled turn, and at the moment I think we are well beyond control. 

 

Not to say I am not doing OK trading daily, in fact I am doing better than buy and hold so I am not complaining to much. problem is it is hard work. I still think we are destined for a correction and I think it will be soon, looking at how there is a refusal to go down may also indicate the market is going to be held until the contract close outs, the last one may have hurt a few people and they are trying to get a bit of recovery of lost money.

 

It will be interesting to see if "B's" target of 47600 is the final turning point, it may well get there at this rate. Still think we are the end of a very good run. down is the only option short term.  

[Argento]

There is an IHS in the making that projects up to 47420-ish.. This bull knows no end...

Got a bigger IHS at play too with a projection towards 48000, crazy I know but believe this is euphoria buying, even daily negative divergence means nothing!Don't fight the trend I guess.....

 

Looks like bc is in the money, given now that he said he was long!

 

A

[grantmu]

you are right it is a very strong bull. 

 

The more I look the more I get concerned. I love to use history as a reference, I found another reference that is not mentioned anywhere, the VIX usually has a sudden jump followed by a protracted wind down after an event, just before the 2009 event the VIX did something interesting, the lines grew up in slow steady steps and not the jump, well it seems to be doing that again. 

Attached Files

•  US SPX VIX Futures(Monthly)20150224143513.png   42.47KB   22 downloads

[K~~]

There is an IHS in the making that projects up to 47420-ish.. This bull knows no end...

[Vertebrae]

If doom & gloom gets boring try the antidote...

 

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

[Argento]

I have been looking at the same thing, i am still playing scalping, the reason is the daily MACD has not shown any sign of pulling up in fact it is still showing a turn in the process. I also looked at the reason why this turn is so slow and it looks like the difference between the USA and the EU, so the EU is dragging us down in the morning and slowly pulling to level during the day followed by the pull up as the US opens. I will still wait for the daily MACD to show if it is a failed turn or just a slow one, If the MACD stays at around this level and pushes the market up it would be the first time this has happened in as far back as my history goes. this level is not normally the place the market starts a slow climb.

 

IMO there needs to be some drop, may not be much but in order to get the MACD off the all time high we need some form of drop, the FED is being asked to answer questions today, that is going to push this higher or drop off depending on the testimony, the fact that questions are being asked shows that congress is starting to say why is the interest rate not already implemented, that to me is concerning and may signify that the trust of the numbers may be in question, just look at the fact that the FED is claiming all systems go, but the jobs numbers are a bit low for all systems go, also the jobs numbers are mostly half day and temporary work and not long term employment.

 

I hope the FED answers well or there will be problems, some of the FED BS may be finally getting out into the main stream. Just this year if you look at all the numbers issued as results in the announcements it is claiming that the US is all systems go, but its main partner the EU is almost at a dead stop, so how is the USA growing with no customers, if this is simply local consumption then we are not talking growth at all. Add to that the second largest trading partner China is also slowing down fast.

 

Oil is dropping and will stay well bellow 100 a barrel for some time, that in itself should be showing up in the numbers by now but it is not, we are talking all the oil companies in the US with less than half the normal income, so how on earth is such a large sector of the US economy not showing up in the numbers, I smell something funny here.

 

The market seems to be reacting to the fed and ignoring the rest of the numbers, but the data does not fully support the feds outlook, some numbers are higher but some show a divergence especially jobs, BUT then again you have to not look at the total number but the kind of JOB to see the problem. 

 

The US IMO is at a critical stage, start interest rates or this house of cards is going to fall, here is the kicker, if they start interest rates the market IMO is going to come down for a while, if the don't start interest rates right now then confidence in the all the BS is going to be questioned, just one slip up and this thing will go south. 

 

Now add the EU that have driven their markets up to very high points and not a single cent has been spent, and all based on the premise that it worked for the US, if the US cant restart the normal process soon, like very soon then QE will become the norm and that is going to be a serious problem to FIAT currency all over the world. 

 

I would wait for the testimony, if you are already short i would cut half out.

 

The big difference between this and all other bubbles is that other bubbles required a single company in a sector to blow up. in this bubble it is a single company the FED that is holding it all together, BUT at some point the money will win, with the amount of debt the FED has issued it is an unrecoverable equation, even if the US was king of the world for the next 100 years there is no way the fed can recover even half of what the have issued, even if the US economy grows at 10 percent, money is going to win on this one it is just a question of when.

 

still playing the daily game until this ting decides.

 

G   

Luckily got out of with this dip with not too much damage!

 

She is possibly going for the daily upper bollingerband so could see sideways action for the rest of the day and the break out up...again tomorrow!

 

March is seasonally bearish, first half that is so should see a decent pullback then...I'm starting to sound like Roffey I know!

 

But must give it to the bulls, they very strong, typical of a primary 5 impulsive wave!

 

A

[grantmu]

Gonna bail out if she closes the gap near 47000 this morning, this higher highs not bearish and that pullback might only happen in March, looks like this was again consolidation to only push higher!Grrrrr

 

A

I have been looking at the same thing, i am still playing scalping, the reason is the daily MACD has not shown any sign of pulling up in fact it is still showing a turn in the process. I also looked at the reason why this turn is so slow and it looks like the difference between the USA and the EU, so the EU is dragging us down in the morning and slowly pulling to level during the day followed by the pull up as the US opens. I will still wait for the daily MACD to show if it is a failed turn or just a slow one, If the MACD stays at around this level and pushes the market up it would be the first time this has happened in as far back as my history goes. this level is not normally the place the market starts a slow climb.

 

IMO there needs to be some drop, may not be much but in order to get the MACD off the all time high we need some form of drop, the FED is being asked to answer questions today, that is going to push this higher or drop off depending on the testimony, the fact that questions are being asked shows that congress is starting to say why is the interest rate not already implemented, that to me is concerning and may signify that the trust of the numbers may be in question, just look at the fact that the FED is claiming all systems go, but the jobs numbers are a bit low for all systems go, also the jobs numbers are mostly half day and temporary work and not long term employment.

 

I hope the FED answers well or there will be problems, some of the FED BS may be finally getting out into the main stream. Just this year if you look at all the numbers issued as results in the announcements it is claiming that the US is all systems go, but its main partner the EU is almost at a dead stop, so how is the USA growing with no customers, if this is simply local consumption then we are not talking growth at all. Add to that the second largest trading partner China is also slowing down fast.

 

Oil is dropping and will stay well bellow 100 a barrel for some time, that in itself should be showing up in the numbers by now but it is not, we are talking all the oil companies in the US with less than half the normal income, so how on earth is such a large sector of the US economy not showing up in the numbers, I smell something funny here.

 

The market seems to be reacting to the fed and ignoring the rest of the numbers, but the data does not fully support the feds outlook, some numbers are higher but some show a divergence especially jobs, BUT then again you have to not look at the total number but the kind of JOB to see the problem. 

 

The US IMO is at a critical stage, start interest rates or this house of cards is going to fall, here is the kicker, if they start interest rates the market IMO is going to come down for a while, if the don't start interest rates right now then confidence in the all the BS is going to be questioned, just one slip up and this thing will go south. 

 

Now add the EU that have driven their markets up to very high points and not a single cent has been spent, and all based on the premise that it worked for the US, if the US cant restart the normal process soon, like very soon then QE will become the norm and that is going to be a serious problem to FIAT currency all over the world. 

 

I would wait for the testimony, if you are already short i would cut half out.

 

The big difference between this and all other bubbles is that other bubbles required a single company in a sector to blow up. in this bubble it is a single company the FED that is holding it all together, BUT at some point the money will win, with the amount of debt the FED has issued it is an unrecoverable equation, even if the US was king of the world for the next 100 years there is no way the fed can recover even half of what the have issued, even if the US economy grows at 10 percent, money is going to win on this one it is just a question of when.

 

still playing the daily game until this ting decides.

 

G   

[Argento]

Gonna bail out if she closes the gap near 47000 this morning, this higher highs not bearish and that pullback might only happen in March, looks like this was again consolidation to only push higher!Grrrrr

 

A

[Vertebrae]

Could I have one of those ATH things on the rocks? Make it a double

[Argento]

hey A...thank you. Hadn't seen this one. Now I see it clearly!

 

Will stay out of Napsers for now...you saved me some possible heartache there

Cheers!

 

A

[Motion Picture]

hey A...thank you. Hadn't seen this one. Now I see it clearly!

 

Will stay out of Napsers for now...you saved me some possible heartache there

[Argento]

Well done!

 

On the dailies but check out the weekly negative divergence!!Resources already turned for their mini correction so once this baby joins we will head south!

 

A

Attached Files

•  NaspersH&S.jpg   179.33KB   24 downloads

Edited by Argento, 23 February 2015 - 04:24 PM.

[Beorn]

Oh man bc - gloating almost always ends up in tears! Always remember there are many perspectives and reasons for people going long and short - I reiterate the world was screaming sell when Beorn was screaming buy, back in Jan. Let's applaud when doing well, and commiserate when doing badly, because it will switch around.

 

Well thank you sir.

 

My view is still that we go higher, but I closed all longs, and we will rally without me for now.

The whole Greek issue could give a very good buying opportunity imo. The sh*t just has to hit the fan.

And I must just not be to fast on the trigger.

 

That's my trade.

 

Besides, I need to practice my golf game.   

[Argento]

Hi A...on which timeframe is the Naspers H&S?

 

Just closed 90% of my Naspers and SABs of last week for a healthy profit...but was considering re-entering.

Well done!

 

On the dailies but check out the weekly negative divergence!!Resources already turned for their mini correction so once this baby joins we will head south!

 

A

[Motion Picture]

My  target of 47150 reached. Closing earlier long of 46940 for 210 pips.

 

I'm satisfied for the day.

[Motion Picture]

Hi A...on which timeframe is the Naspers H&S?

 

Just closed 90% of my Naspers and SABs of last week for a healthy profit...but was considering re-entering.

[Vertebrae]

What a day for a daydream...

[Argento]

Naspers busy with a very dangerous H&S..if that breaks down the bear armies should arrive at last...quick and lethal!!

 

A

[Motion Picture]

Long 46940 (IG). Morning gap closed. I think we're going back up.

 

Target 47150. Scalp trade basically.