35854 replies to this topic

[Beorn]

I see the negative divergence you mention on the 60min and it is concerning....I also looked now and can spot 'n H&S pattern for an exactly 1500 point drop back to the 43950 line, thus a perfect return move!

 

Mistake I tend to make is having a plan on what she is going to do and ignoring the chart...Europe charts also screaming top, so changing here to par...think Monday we will know her colours and trade accordingly!

 

A

 

Pissie!

 

Just kidding.

 

I'm holding my longs.

 

Funny money will make me right

Edited by Beorn, 06 February 2015 - 02:42 PM.

[grantmu]

I see the negative divergence you mention on the 60min and it is concerning....I also looked now and can spot 'n H&S position for a exactly 1500 point drop back to the 43950 line, thus a perfect return move!

 

Mistake I tend to make is having a plan on what she is going to do and ignoring the chart...Europe charts also screaming top, so changing here to par...think Monday we will know her colours and trade accordingly!

 

A

I make exactly the same mistake, always get involved with what I want to happen and ignore reality. 

 

check out sasol

[Argento]

The one that worries me is check for the divergence on macd on the 1 hour, from the 27th till now, that normaly spells trouble according to me (long slow down, then a dip, but the dip does not seem to be done), it broke down bellow the 0 on 5th and did not recover, if it bounces of the 0 then I get back in, but I think it is going to drop bellow the zero, come back up hit 0 (Monday) and turn around, if NFP is expectational then I think the trend may reverse.

 

Just my view, may be horribly wrong. 

 

G

I see the negative divergence you mention on the 60min and it is concerning....I also looked now and can spot 'n H&S pattern for an exactly 1500 point drop back to the 43950 line, thus a perfect return move!

 

Mistake I tend to make is having a plan on what she is going to do and ignoring the chart...Europe charts also screaming top, so changing here to par...think Monday we will know her colours and trade accordingly!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 06 February 2015 - 02:40 PM.

[grantmu]

The bull will bust out just now

you and the bull may be right, we will have let the day play out. 

 

G   

[Beorn]

man this thing barely has a hart beat today

 

The bull will bust out just now

[grantmu]

man this thing barely has a hart beat today

[Beorn]

I'm still holding longs and going strong!

Will not cut my longs before we hit 46600ish.

a Target I have had since about a month ago. (as posted then)

 

IMO, any weakness is to be bought

Edited by Beorn, 06 February 2015 - 01:31 PM.

[grantmu]

Thing is when she enters a strong uptrend typically what happens is the market runs hard, then stops and goes sideways to down (middle bollingerbands) to bring down the macd's...actually a very bullish signal. Then one can interpret it wrongly on a huge drop coming while she is making ready to go higher.....made the same mistake the other day!

 

The daily macd is only starting to turn so no negative divergence yet, so once we reach near the top IMO (46500-800?) she should do the same and go sideways to bring down the macd, but that would be the distribution for the return move coming end of month!

 

Fits in with the seasonal pattern of February too!

 

But....never forget the bigger picture and Farouk is right with a lot of big up and down moves coming, but I believe we are entering the euphoria phase of this bullmarket that normally precedes the end. I got this big correction that started in September as Primary IV with Primary V that kicked off now with a end target of 49800ish futures...(bullish triangular projection)!

 

A

agreed. taken the longs off and money in the bank, if I need to get back in for a sudden last gasp for a day or 2 or the start of a new run then still safe, if on the other hand it drops, money safe in the bank. 

 

G

[Argento]

The one that worries me is check for the divergence on macd on the 1 hour, from the 27th till now, that normaly spells trouble according to me (long slow down, then a dip, but the dip does not seem to be done), it broke down bellow the 0 on 5th and did not recover, if it bounces of the 0 then I get back in, but I think it is going to drop bellow the zero, come back up hit 0 (Monday) and turn around, if NFP is expectational then I think the trend may reverse.

 

Just my view, may be horribly wrong. 

 

G

Thing is when she enters a strong uptrend typically what happens is the market runs hard, then stops and goes sideways to down (middle bollingerbands) to bring down the macd's...actually a very bullish signal. Then one can interpret it wrongly on a huge drop coming while she is making ready to go higher.....made the same mistake the other day!

 

The daily macd is only starting to turn so no negative divergence yet, so once we reach near the top IMO (46500-800?) she should do the same and go sideways to bring down the macd, but that would be the distribution for the return move coming end of month!

 

Fits in with the seasonal pattern of February too!

 

But....never forget the bigger picture and Farouk is right with a lot of big up and down moves coming, but I believe we are entering the euphoria phase of this bullmarket that normally precedes the end. I got this big correction that started in September as Primary IV with Primary V that kicked off now with a end target of 49800ish futures...(bullish triangular projection)!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 06 February 2015 - 12:16 PM.

[BlythZ]

No top formation in place for a bigger drop, the mini correction that bottomed yesterday was due to a double top, but let's see what she does....!Got bulllish crosses around and the 5min 89 up through the 200 just confirmed....

 

US should also keep their upside momentum going!

 

A

Thanks A, 

 

Will hold onto my longs. 

[Argento]

I went back into longs earlier but after looking at the hourly chart i tend to agree with Grantmu at the moment, europe is in the red and seems like we are going down with them

No top formation in place for a bigger drop, the mini correction that bottomed yesterday was due to a double top, but let's see what she does....!Got bulllish crosses around and the 5min 89 up through the 200 just confirmed....

 

US should also keep their upside momentum going!

 

A

[grantmu]

Believe she is in for a last push up near the highs before we see that distribution to start and drop into end Feb (return move)...but can be wrong!

 

Need to look at the charts in front of you and not think what she is doing to do....so you are right!

 

QE only hits the market in March but guess the thought of it also makes her run!

 

BHP and AGL uber bullish and busy breaking out to the upside!

 

A

The one that worries me is check for the divergence on macd on the 1 hour, from the 27th till now, that normaly spells trouble according to me (long slow down, then a dip, but the dip does not seem to be done), it broke down bellow the 0 on 5th and did not recover, if it bounces of the 0 then I get back in, but I think it is going to drop bellow the zero, come back up hit 0 (Monday) and turn around, if NFP is expectational then I think the trend may reverse.

 

Just my view, may be horribly wrong. 

 

G

[BlythZ]

Finger on the button, I just have more bear signals than bull at the moment, and they are starting to say 1500 drop and not 500, But QE may well prove me wrong. I have to operate within the rules I set for myself and at the moment they say the bear is near/ 

 

G

I went back into longs earlier but after looking at the hourly chart i tend to agree with Grantmu at the moment, europe is in the red and seems like we are going down with them

[Argento]

Finger on the button, I just have more bear signals than bull at the moment, and they are starting to say 1500 drop and not 500, But QE may well prove me wrong. I have to operate within the rules I set for myself and at the moment they say the bear is near/ 

 

G

Believe she is in for a last push up near the highs before we see that distribution to start and drop into end Feb (return move)...but can be wrong!

 

Need to look at the charts in front of you and not think what she is doing to do....so you are right!

 

QE only hits the market in March but guess the thought of it also makes her run!

 

BHP and AGL uber bullish and busy breaking out to the upside!

 

A

[grantmu]

The move up will be quick and hard..don't miss it!

 

A

Finger on the button, I just have more bear signals than bull at the moment, and they are starting to say 1500 drop and not 500, But QE may well prove me wrong. I have to operate within the rules I set for myself and at the moment they say the bear is near/ 

 

G

Edited by grantmu, 06 February 2015 - 11:47 AM.

[Argento]

Dumped all the longs, sitting on the side. 

 

Not to be a half empty person but I have this thing pointed south, on the 10 min , the 1 hour, the 4 hour, The one day has a possible bounce and the weekly also shows possible reversal but is south at the moment. 

 

My view. Possible bounce up on Monday or possibly this afternoon with NFP and FED. If the news is not brilliant I Dont see this thing restarting the BULL, but I think we may see a higher high before the drop back. I get the impression this thing is wanting to go but a bit out of breath. 

 

We also seem to be a bit disconnected at the moment, I am not sure if we are leading the world or just dragging behind. 

 

will play Monday as it comes and watch this afternoon for a jump. 

 

G

The move up will be quick and hard..don't miss it!

 

A

[grantmu]

Dumped all the longs, sitting on the side. 

 

Not to be a half empty person but I have this thing pointed south, on the 10 min , the 1 hour, the 4 hour, The one day has a possible bounce and the weekly also shows possible reversal but is south at the moment. 

 

My view. Possible bounce up on Monday or possibly this afternoon with NFP and FED. If the news is not brilliant I Dont see this thing restarting the BULL, but I think we may see a higher high before the drop back. I get the impression this thing is wanting to go but a bit out of breath. 

 

We also seem to be a bit disconnected at the moment, I am not sure if we are leading the world or just dragging behind. 

 

will play Monday as it comes and watch this afternoon for a jump. 

 

G

[Vertebrae]

Give me a wish to build a dream on...

 

[Argento]

Mr bull...come out come out where ever you are....

 

A

[Vertebrae]

Exposing those shorts at the 61.8% futures retrace.

Should be better luck this time if R/$ allowed to influence.

However, more R/$ weakness is embedded in the weekly chart.