35854 replies to this topic

[Beorn]

O yes sir....don't say I warned you all, presume once the big bear comes all the longs will go silent again....

 

A

 

I might be willing to take a side bet with you if you are interested.

What time frame are you looking at for the drop? And when do you expect it to start?

[Argento]

You still holding your shorts A?

Might get painful 

O yes sir....don't say I warned you all, presume once the big bear comes all the longs will go silent again....

 

A

[REDorBLACK]

Got my popcorn ready for the 2:45 show....there's going to be only one winner in this.

[Beorn]

This is truly amazing bc given that you don't really trade charts, do you mind forwarding the posts where you got in and entry levels?

 

Cheers

 

A

 

You still holding your shorts A?

Might get painful 

[Argento]

That G is presisely why so many short guys loose money when there is QE no true fundamentals at work just false money ruling the market.The guys with their techs and waves etc are actually right But QE rules something I learnt the hard way more times that I can count Dec I had a 2000 point short trade no QE currently I booked a long of 1200 and another long sitting at a 1000 points that I am holding till new highs reached

This is truly amazing bc given that you don't really trade charts, do you mind forwarding the posts where you got in and entry levels?

 

Cheers

 

A

[Kallie]

Yip Beorn you are right about QE and markets reaction to it so lets see how it plays out.  We have never seen the markets reaction to a Draghi helicopter, this will be first.. weak euro, stronger $, weak commodities ?? Rand nowhere

[Beorn]

The chicken will come home to roost.....maybe this afternoon

 

Nope, not yet.

We need a blackswan event, of the sort that makes QE not enough, or that QE is not occurring. and there is no chance that Draghi will disappoint, he knows what will happen to markets if he disappoints.

IMO 

[Kallie]

The chicken will come home to roost.....maybe this afternoon

[Beorn]

Added more longs @ 44150

 

Added one more naughty long @ 44200.

[grantmu]

That G is presisely why so many short guys loose money when there is QE no true fundamentals at work just false money ruling the market.The guys with their techs and waves etc are actually right But QE rules something I learnt the hard way more times that I can count Dec I had a 2000 point short trade no QE currently I booked a long of 1200 and another long sitting at a 1000 points that I am holding till new highs reached

I have those same burns, and I also agree the QE does take over from sanity, in the USA you need to convince 20 people to support QE, in Europe you need to convince 20 countries to support it. That in my view will fail every time. also holding one long at 1250, and a second at 900, so going with the flow for now. 

 

G

 

G

[K~~]

If she stays above this downtrend line, it's tickets for the bears..

 

K

 

 

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[grantmu]

So is now the hour to define what is and what is not good with this?

Better get started then...

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-30895025

exactly, to many questions, to many points of failure. I just don't see the Germans folding after a 5 year fight. the ECB may go round it by stipulating national bank buy outs but that would in my view be suicide.  

[bear catcher]

I get that, if this was the fed making the announcement I would fully understand, but this is not the fed, and there is a long history of the ECB making a big mess out of any form of stimulation, the Germans don't want this and they have to foot the bill, so I think this announcement will be constrained and very limited. It has taken 5 years for the ECB to even conciser this, I don't think they are going to start with a bang, more like a whimper. If however the announcement is good I will add more long to the equation.

Until yesterday all the signs were that we had reached the end of a 2000 point run, not going to change my mind on a one day change of direction. This just feels a bit like more hope than fact, and those type of reversals usually hit hard and fast.

this all feels a bit unsupported to me.

G

That G is presisely why so many short guys loose money when there is QE no true fundamentals at work just false money ruling the market.The guys with their techs and waves etc are actually right But QE rules something I learnt the hard way more times that I can count Dec I had a 2000 point short trade no QE currently I booked a long of 1200 and another long sitting at a 1000 points that I am holding till new highs reached

[Vertebrae]

I get that, if this was the fed making the announcement I would fully understand, but this is not the fed, and there is a long history of the ECB making a big mess out of any form of stimulation, the Germans don't want this and they have to foot the bill, so I think this announcement will be constrained and very limited. It has taken 5 years for the ECB to even conciser this, I don't think they are going to start with a bang, more like a whimper. If however the announcement is good I will add more long to the equation.

 

Until yesterday all the signs were that we had reached the end of a 2000 point run, not going to change my mind on a one day change of direction. This just feels a bit like more hope than fact, and those type of reversals usually hit hard and fast.

 

this all feels a bit unsupported to me.

 

G 

 

So is now the hour to define what is and what is not good with this?

Better get started then...

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-30895025

[Argento]

I get that, if this was the fed making the announcement I would fully understand, but this is not the fed, and there is a long history of the ECB making a big mess out of any form of stimulation, the Germans don't want this and they have to foot the bill, so I think this announcement will be constrained and very limited. It has taken 5 years for the ECB to even conciser this, I don't think they are going to start with a bang, more like a whimper. If however the announcement is good I will add more long to the equation.

 

Until yesterday all the signs were that we had reached the end of a 2000 point run, not going to change my mind on a one day change of direction. This just feels a bit like more hope than fact, and those type of reversals usually hit hard and fast.

 

this all feels a bit unsupported to me.

 

G 

Fully agree, this is not the FED and the money will only get in they system starting March eitherway, so with the tape looking as it is longs will learn the hard way here!Normally after the squeeze reality sets in....

 

A

[grantmu]

Have a look at EM performance compared to US and Ftse, we have been under performing since the end of US QE.
Funny money leaving our shores.
Now we know the printing will continue, so everyone that jumped out, are scrambling to get back in.
That is why I said we will keep outperforming leading markets from now

I get that, if this was the fed making the announcement I would fully understand, but this is not the fed, and there is a long history of the ECB making a big mess out of any form of stimulation, the Germans don't want this and they have to foot the bill, so I think this announcement will be constrained and very limited. It has taken 5 years for the ECB to even conciser this, I don't think they are going to start with a bang, more like a whimper. If however the announcement is good I will add more long to the equation.

 

Until yesterday all the signs were that we had reached the end of a 2000 point run, not going to change my mind on a one day change of direction. This just feels a bit like more hope than fact, and those type of reversals usually hit hard and fast.

 

this all feels a bit unsupported to me.

 

G 

[Beorn]

I see everyone is on the long train, the only markets doing well today are third world countries, the rest are up but not making steam. I am long but not fully committed, we may run out of coal, if this was such a good thing I would expect the FTSe to be running up, currently at .30.

This may be the last of the steam.

G

Have a look at EM performance compared to US and Ftse, we have been under performing since the end of US QE.
Funny money leaving our shores.
Now we know the printing will continue, so everyone that jumped out, are scrambling to get back in.
That is why I said we will keep outperforming leading markets from now

[strydomk]

And all this before the announcement has actually been made.

[Vertebrae]

Leave the bear alone, he's trying his best...

 

[grantmu]

I see everyone is on the long train, the only markets doing well today are third world countries, the rest are up but not making steam. I am long but not fully committed, we may run out of coal, if this was such a good thing I would expect the FTSe to be running up, currently at .30.

 

This may be the last of the steam.

 

G