35854 replies to this topic

[Motion Picture]

I'm always long...so I think you know which side I wish for on this bet

[OceanWalz]

My call is long all the way, new highs, how fast, I'm not certain.

But we wont go below 43800 at the worst before we reach new highs.

Thats my call.

Well said B, that is the about the high on Jan 8 on Futures - presume bet is on Futures?

 

Now we have, A's and B's position, two bold and well motivated and clear, but opposite views, for this bet with minimum chance of a draw! good luck to your both gentlemen!

[Beorn]

Bullish or bearish...you decide how you view the lower low macd's!

 

A

From my view, it looks like it's just giving itself some room to run

[Argento]

Bullish or bearish...you decide how you view the lower low macd's!

 

A

Attached Files

•  SPX (Negative Divergence).jpg   108.29KB   5 downloads

[@sirgrantfleming]

Just to make it clear, not a new low Monday already but starting the downtrend, but guess if we hit new highs then Beorn wins, if new lows me win and off to the golf course we go...any takers for drinks?

 

On da house!

 

A

Just my 2c - you need a timeline - new high, XXX, or above, before this date and Beorn wins, new low, YYY, or lower, before this date and Argento wins. Then agree on that and let's see...?

[Beorn]

Ok, I'm all in with my last long @ 44195, exposed to the hilt on this.

I have some stops on a big part of my longs, so not to bust my account if we turn down. 

 

Very low volumes so far today, so any buying should light the rocket.

Edited by Beorn, 22 January 2015 - 02:19 PM.

[Argento]

My call is long all the way, new highs, how fast, I'm not certain.

But we wont go below 43800 at the worst before we reach new highs.

Thats my call.

Just to make it clear, not a new low Monday already but starting the downtrend, but guess if we hit new highs then Beorn wins, if new lows me win and off to the golf course we go...any takers for drinks?

 

On da house!

 

A

[Beorn]

Hi B , I understand this bet you and A have - watched by all ! many unknown variables involved - will Drahgi put the  EC economic train back on the track with a respectable load of coal, enough to push uphill the whole of EC  and other wagons attached to it , and thus world exchanges , especially an EM country called SA? 

 

However the bet seems skewed - it is just if Argento is wrong/ correct - what are you laying down as the stuff crystall balls are made out of ? - give us some concrete -like all time highs next week?  and continuation? Argento could be wrong and you too with a another period of sideways twaddle on the market (for example consolidation over time?) - No I am not taking part in this bet - cant afford both of you for a golf weekend at Sun city all expenses !!

 

My call is long all the way, new highs, how fast, I'm not certain.

But we wont go below 43800 at the worst before we reach new highs.

Thats my call.

[K~~]

This is going exponential soon!

If she bursts through 44300 (futures) there is the potential for a massive short squeeze... That's where I think all the stops for the shorts are..

[OceanWalz]

This is going exponential soon!

Hi B , I understand this bet you and A have - watched by all ! many unknown variables involved - will Drahgi put the  EC economic train back on the track with a respectable load of coal, enough to push uphill the whole of EC  and other wagons attached to it , and thus world exchanges , especially an EM country called SA? 

 

However the bet seems skewed - it is just if Argento is wrong/ correct - what are you laying down as the stuff crystall balls are made out of ? - give us some concrete -like all time highs next week?  and continuation? Argento could be wrong and you too with a another period of sideways twaddle on the market (for example consolidation over time?) - No I am not taking part in this bet - cant afford both of you for a golf weekend at Sun city all expenses !!

Edited by OceanWalz, 22 January 2015 - 01:58 PM.

[Beorn]

If QE is announced at 50bil go long and if QE is less than 50bil go short?Is this right?

 

It depends on the total size of the QE package. 50bil a month for a year, I will sell all my longs.

60bil a month for a year, I will still sell.

>50bil for 2 years or more I will hold longs and smile.

Total package should be 1tril or more.

When the minutes come out, look to see how many people didn't agree, if everyone agreed, the package might be smaller than market might like. If there are people that said no, the package could be large. (Ze Germans wont like to agree with a large package)

IMO

[Beorn]

Added again at 44130

 

This is going exponential soon!

[vuilhond]

If QE is announced at 50bil go long and if QE is less than 50bil go short?Is this right?

[Vertebrae]

exactly, to many questions, to many points of failure. I just don't see the Germans folding after a 5 year fight. the ECB may go round it by stipulating national bank buy outs but that would in my view be suicide.  

 

Having taken the "free" illusion out of the markets the CB cartel be the naked front row masters of the show.

I would liketo know who owns the copyright, but no law for that one. 

[Beorn]

Watch her run now.

I am going to look at closing some of my longs just after the announcement, and then adding back after a bit of a pullback.

(I will only close a small part of my long)

[Argento]

a golf game at one of the top 10 courses, depending on where you are situated.

If you are correct (New lows starting latest Monday), I will pay all you costs to come play here where I stay (food, travel, golf, etc), you could leave your money at home.

If I am correct, it's the inverse?

Got a deal!!

 

A

[Beorn]

Added one more naughty long @ 44200.

 

Added again at 44130

[Beorn]

Weeklies look bad and expect her to start going down from Monday, but mr bear could launch a attack anytime now!As I said before ECB meeting dates come a with a top event in most cases....

 

Downtrend line still in play as attached on the daily...careful K, if that is IG cash it is wrong and she hasn't broken it yet!

 

Monthly macd also pointing down so medium term trend still down and new lows coming...IMO!

 

So what's the bet?

 

A

 

a golf game at one of the top 10 courses, depending on where you are situated.

If you are correct (New lows starting latest Monday), I will pay all you costs to come play here where I stay (food, travel, golf, etc), you could leave your money at home.

If I am correct, it's the inverse?

[K~~]

Weeklies look bad and expect her to start going down from Monday, but mr bear could launch a attack anytime now!As I said before ECB meeting dates come a with a top event in most cases....

 

Downtrend line still in play as attached on the daily...careful K, if that is IG cash it is wrong and she hasn't broken it yet!

 

Monthly macd also pointing down so medium term trend still down and new lows coming...IMO!

 

So what's the bet?

 

A

It is Cash indeed, because Futures charts on IG does not go back far enough to draw in nice trendlines...

 

I see a little wick on that candle now, but I'll sit on hands and be patient and wait for a proper reversal before I commit to the dark side!!!

 

Plenty of time to get in if the bear starts to bite! I'll rather wait for confirmation and then commit, rather than be a pig and get slaughtered! 

 

K

[Argento]

I might be willing to take a side bet with you if you are interested.

What time frame are you looking at for the drop? And when do you expect it to start?

Weeklies look bad and expect her to start going down from Monday, but mr bear could launch a attack anytime now!As I said before ECB meeting dates come a with a top event in most cases....

 

Downtrend line still in play as attached on the daily...careful K, if that is IG cash it is wrong and she hasn't broken it yet!

 

Monthly macd also pointing down so medium term trend still down and new lows coming...IMO!

 

So what's the bet?

 

A

Attached Files

•  TOP40 (Downtrend line).jpg   189.31KB   2 downloads