+ the data...
great thanks David!
31 votes
ALSI Trades
Started by
Plasma
, Apr 03 2013 09:05 PM
35854 replies to this topic
#11921
warnerbroers
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 07:34 PM
#11922
Daytrade
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 07:09 PM
Something interesting to note (graph attached), look at how once a top formation breaks down (impulsive) she goes back to the top distribution line, so in this case being the 44000 level, but it will just be an oversold bounce within the 5th wave down, see we had one in the 3rd wave as well!
So the brave could take a long here with a tight stop as this zig zag is consolidation for probably a bigger move that kicked off!
But she should continue the downtrend thereafter!
A
Argento, whats your value on the bottom of the SPX channel that needs to get taken out, to end the long term bullish channel please? Thanks
#11923
davidp13
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Little Master
Posted 06 January 2015 - 06:35 PM
This might help paint the picture...
+ the data...
Attached Files
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SeasonalityData.xlsx 26.79KB
18 downloads
I find trading like body surfing, catch the right one and you will make it all the way to the beach.
#11924
davidp13
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Little Master
Posted 06 January 2015 - 06:24 PM
Learning the hard way by trading against it through the years, but mostly from UBS and their cycles!
Best is to go back and study historical charts (don't always follow the same pattern but more or less), other key factors includes earnings season months, ECB meeting dates, futures close-out, Santa rallies (triple witching), seasonal bearish/bullish months etc
Jan - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
Feb - Bullish but if Jan bullish followed by an uptrend then could be a top month (refer to previous years)
March - Bearish first half but futures close-out month so rally latter part
April - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
May - Tricky, sometimes bullish sometimes bearish but known as a very zig zag month
June - Mostly bearish but futures close-out month, after it is bullish...
July - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
August - Depend on bullmarket or bearmarket, if bull then bullish, if bear then bearish
September - Futures close-out month, first half bullish, second bearish
October - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish), also called month of bottoms
November - Bearish
December - First half bearish, latter bullish (Santa rally)
BUT...all of this must fit in with the tape, pattern and trend it is busy with!
Again, not set in stone but a good overall guideline!
A
This might help paint the picture...
Attached Files
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J200_SeasonalityChart.png 409.11KB
20 downloads
I find trading like body surfing, catch the right one and you will make it all the way to the beach.
#11925
@sirgrantfleming
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- Senior Member
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jedi
Posted 06 January 2015 - 05:32 PM
Something interesting to note (graph attached), look at how once a top formation breaks down (impulsive) she goes back to the top distribution line, so in this case being the 44000 level, but it will just be an oversold bounce within the 5th wave down, see we had one in the 3rd wave as well!
So the brave could take a long here with a tight stop as this zig zag is consolidation for probably a bigger move that kicked off!
But she should continue the downtrend thereafter!
A
The brave have been rewarded!
Twitter: @sirgrantfleming
#11926
Argento
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 03:08 PM
Could go back to 44000 futures, ECB meetings could signal a top as well, UBS calling for a zig zag rally into end Jan before the final nasty downleg happens, they could be right!
2019 very strong support on the SPX!
A
Something interesting to note (graph attached), look at how once a top formation breaks down (impulsive) she goes back to the top distribution line, so in this case being the 44000 level, but it will just be an oversold bounce within the 5th wave down, see we had one in the 3rd wave as well!
So the brave could take a long here with a tight stop as this zig zag is consolidation for probably a bigger move that kicked off!
But she should continue the downtrend thereafter!
A
Attached Files
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TOP40 (Pattern).jpg 164.38KB
21 downloads
Edited by Argento, 06 January 2015 - 03:09 PM.
"Never never never give up!"
#11927
gannet
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Little Master
Posted 06 January 2015 - 01:20 PM
Captain ... my Captain ... guide us safely away from the rocky shores! 
#11928
Vertebrae
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Pachycephalosaurus
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 01:04 PM
This is the Captain of your ship...
Africa will never be regarded as adult until all of its organisations stop admiring and protecting criminal dictators.
MSM et al presents (sponsored) opinion as fact and seeks to indoctrinate. Journalists without ethics proliferate in a swamp of filthy lucre (BBC inclusive).
In response to decades of racism by fearful minority whites called apartheid there will be an eternity of racism by revengeful majority blacks called all kinds of excuses.
Corruption is not yet compulsory but it may as well be - Aggressive africanization uses the racist Employment Equity Act as a club.
Too many humans are too busy copulating to bother about the irresponsible, unsustainable and progressively catastrophic population explosion.
Whilst humanity prevails so will evil. Evil will survive and thrive through sophisticated indoctrination and other conscience-suppressing disguises.
Desmond Tutu has been praying for the downfall of the ANC since 2011. Clearly he needs some assistance with such a difficult and worthy task..
Cockroaches still lurk on sharechat because it is prime real estate for their con artistry, duping and grand theft.
#11929
Argento
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The Artist
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 10:35 AM
was that the bounce
Could go back to 44000 futures, ECB meetings could signal a top as well, UBS calling for a zig zag rally into end Jan before the final nasty downleg happens, they could be right!
2019 very strong support on the SPX!
A
"Never never never give up!"
#11930
REDorBLACK
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 10:27 AM
See we have gone outside the 5H bollingerband and come back (usually signals a short term low) and her macd is very oversold, so could see a bit of a larger bounce for a few days before the final whack down!
A
was that the bounce 
#11931
Argento
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 10:09 AM
Just sell any rally, trend is now down!
See we have an ECB meeting on the 22nd January and might be a catalyst for that bottom or the day before, believe the Greece elections will also conclude over that time!
Buckle up!
A
See we have gone outside the 5H bollingerband and come back (usually signals a short term low) and her macd is very oversold, so could see a bit of a larger bounce for a few days before the final whack down!
A
Edited by Argento, 06 January 2015 - 10:10 AM.
"Never never never give up!"
#11932
Argento
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Posted 06 January 2015 - 09:14 AM
Just sell any rally, trend is now down!
See we have an ECB meeting on the 22nd January and might be a catalyst for that bottom or the day before, believe the Greece elections will also conclude over that time!
Buckle up!
A
Edited by Argento, 06 January 2015 - 09:17 AM.
"Never never never give up!"
#11933
Motion Picture
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Little Master
Posted 06 January 2015 - 07:47 AM
Hello Argento.
Thank you for the breakdown guidelines. I also don't see the "Like" button, but thumbs-up on this post of yours.
Hey Lekkerry...welcome back! great to hear from you again!!!
You better know when to hold on, know when to walk away and know when to run!
#11934
Vertebrae
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Pachycephalosaurus
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Posted 05 January 2015 - 10:50 PM
Yo Ho Ho
Africa will never be regarded as adult until all of its organisations stop admiring and protecting criminal dictators.
MSM et al presents (sponsored) opinion as fact and seeks to indoctrinate. Journalists without ethics proliferate in a swamp of filthy lucre (BBC inclusive).
In response to decades of racism by fearful minority whites called apartheid there will be an eternity of racism by revengeful majority blacks called all kinds of excuses.
Corruption is not yet compulsory but it may as well be - Aggressive africanization uses the racist Employment Equity Act as a club.
Too many humans are too busy copulating to bother about the irresponsible, unsustainable and progressively catastrophic population explosion.
Whilst humanity prevails so will evil. Evil will survive and thrive through sophisticated indoctrination and other conscience-suppressing disguises.
Desmond Tutu has been praying for the downfall of the ANC since 2011. Clearly he needs some assistance with such a difficult and worthy task..
Cockroaches still lurk on sharechat because it is prime real estate for their con artistry, duping and grand theft.
#11935
Lekkerry
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Sage
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Posted 05 January 2015 - 07:36 PM
Hello Argento.
Thank you for the breakdown guidelines. I also don't see the "Like" button, but thumbs-up on this post of yours.
...
Jan - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
Feb - Bullish but if Jan bullish followed by an uptrend then could be a top month (refer to previous years)
March - Bearish first half but futures close-out month so rally latter part
April - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
May - Tricky, sometimes bullish sometimes bearish but known as a very zig zag month
June - Mostly bearish but futures close-out month, after it is bullish...
July - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
August - Depend on bullmarket or bearmarket, if bull then bullish, if bear then bearish
September - Futures close-out month, first half bullish, second bearish
October - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish), also called month of bottoms
November - Bearish
December - First half bearish, latter bullish (Santa rally)
BUT...all of this must fit in with the tape, pattern and trend it is busy with!
Again, not set in stone but a good overall guideline!
A
From your perspective, Lekkerry is faceless and to a degree nameless, so any opinions expressed are just that, opinions from someone on the Internet 
#11936
delta66
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"Veni, vidi, vici"
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Posted 05 January 2015 - 07:02 PM
Learning the hard way by trading against it through the years, but mostly from UBS and their cycles!
Best is to go back and study historical charts (don't always follow the same pattern but more or less), other key factors includes earnings season months, ECB meeting dates, futures close-out, Santa rallies (triple witching), seasonal bearish/bullish months etc
Jan - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
Feb - Bullish but if Jan bullish followed by an uptrend then could be a top month (refer to previous years)
March - Bearish first half but futures close-out month so rally latter part
April - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
May - Tricky, sometimes bullish sometimes bearish but known as a very zig zag month
June - Mostly bearish but futures close-out month, after it is bullish...
July - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish)
August - Depend on bullmarket or bearmarket, if bull then bullish, if bear then bearish
September - Futures close-out month, first half bullish, second bearish
October - Earning season month (first half bearish..second bullish), also called month of bottoms
November - Bearish
December - First half bearish, latter bullish (Santa rally)
BUT...all of this must fit in with the tape, pattern and trend it is busy with!
Again, not set in stone but a good overall guideline!
A
good break-down analogy on market A...cant click the "like" button on your post unfortunately
“melior diabolus quem scies”
#11937
Argento
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The Artist
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Posted 05 January 2015 - 06:04 PM
Change is very good S&P targeting the bullish uptrend channel line around 1890ish....!
A
Attached Files
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SPX (Weekly).jpg 168.07KB
14 downloads
"Never never never give up!"
#11938
AJS
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Posted 05 January 2015 - 05:32 PM
Can't believe that guy is still on TV!!
A
I wonder if he EVER looked at a Dollar Index chart whilst making his "buy gold" calls over the past few months! It should be logic... 
"Trade what you see, not what you think"
#11939
Argento
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The Artist
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Posted 05 January 2015 - 05:18 PM
Now you guys must watch the first roffey review of 2015... Who said he's wrong... He got it right 6 years later... Lol
Can't believe that guy is still on TV!!
A
"Never never never give up!"
#11940
Ninja
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Sage
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Posted 05 January 2015 - 05:10 PM
Now you guys must watch the first roffey review of 2015... Who said he's wrong... He got it right 6 years later... Lol
