35854 replies to this topic

[Vertebrae]

Something else to ponder on....Caldaro mentions that the Primary waves 2 and 4's are mostly the same in size, now Primary II in 2011 was 5000 points and given that the wave we just saw was already 6000 points my take to see a C wave much lower doesn't fit!If she makes new highs running towards 48000 and pulls back to 41000 again that might fit the Primary IV scenario better....!

 

But let's see how it goes and if that inverted H&S confirms!Maybe we see a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow....

 

A

 

The 60min charts and the (USD index * USD crude) give comfort to at least 38.2% methinks. 

No bet on crude going bullish despite use of microscope.

USD/ZAR on track to 10.80 (buy down to 10.78) 

[Argento]

Failing to make a 38.2% retrace on the 1st wave is seen with wave 2 behaviour, which associates with extended 3rds.

This would imply a 5 wave pattern overall and a more significant major B retrace.

Any case I don't go with that until it happens.

Something else to ponder on....Caldaro mentions that the Primary waves 2 and 4's are mostly the same in size, now Primary II in 2011 was 5000 points and given that the wave we just saw was already 6000 points my take to see a C wave much lower doesn't fit!If she makes new highs running towards 48000 and pulls back to 41000 again that might fit the Primary IV scenario better....!

 

But let's see how it goes and if that inverted H&S confirms!Maybe we see a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow....

 

A

[Vertebrae]

Failing to make a 38.2% retrace on the 1st wave is seen with wave 2 behaviour, which associates with extended 3rds.

This would imply a 5 wave pattern overall and a more significant major B retrace.

Any case I don't go with that until it happens.

 

[Argento]

Hope it is A's counter trend Monday, the weekly reversal was strong on Thurs and Fri, looking for a green weekly.

Very good dip to buy although me thinks there is bit more downside in store..!

 

But that weekly reversal is now confirmed so bulls in charge!

 

Very big inverted H&S busy being born but early days....will point it out once confirmed and if this stellar run will only then begin!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 20 October 2014 - 01:08 PM.

[chnkaw001]

Hope it is A's counter trend Monday, the weekly reversal was strong on Thurs and Fri, looking for a green weekly.

[Vertebrae]

Sure looks like the major B of P4. And sure looks like major C not going to be less than major A with potential for that 36000 target. And sure looks like P5 gonna be new highs, as it should be. But if P5 fails that would be a mega worry into the future (what future)

And this major B sure looks to have completed its a-leg up. Could be a bull friend c-leg, but my internal organs are playing a sombre melody. 

 

Big Fibs & Elliott waves quick take review (safex):

b-leg of major B down to 61.8% retrace of a-leg circa 42000 (thats different)

c-leg of major B up to 161.8% of a-leg circa 45300 (check me please)

major C of Primary IV down to 161.8% of major A circa 36000

P5 = P1 would up circa 14000 to 50000

 

disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my mind because it can happen

[Motion Picture]

1st long 42737. Looking to add if she goes below 42500.

 

profits taken at 42845 for 108 pips. She looks lazy today. A tiny piece left to run.

[Vertebrae]

Two ways you can read this chart....one it being primary IV as you are saying and with no new highs to come (B leg)...second we are in the first leg down like in August 2007 with new highs to come...no negative divergence on the montly macd yet and we saw a very big reversal last week...choices choices!

 

My take new highs into December!

 

A

 

Sure looks like the major B of P4. And sure looks like major C not going to be less than major A with potential for that 36000 target. And sure looks like P5 gonna be new highs, as it should be. But if P5 fails that would be a mega worry into the future (what future)

And this major B sure looks to have completed its a-leg up. Could be a bull friend c-leg, but my internal organs are playing a sombre melody. 

[Motion Picture]

Two ways you can read this chart....one it being primary IV as you are saying and with no new highs to come (B leg)...second we are in the first leg down like in August 2007 with new highs to come...no negative divergence on the montly macd yet and we saw a very big reversal last week...choices choices!

 

My take new highs into December!

 

A

 

To new highs...cheers

[Argento]

For egg heads...

 

T40 Futures(Monthly)egg.png

Two ways you can read this chart....one it being primary IV as you are saying and with no new highs to come (B leg)...second we are in the first leg down like in August 2007 with new highs to come...no negative divergence on the montly macd yet and we saw a very big reversal last week...choices choices!

 

My take new highs into December!

 

A

[Motion Picture]

Nice chart V!

 

And just to put it into context...it looks like we have a couple of months for the bull, before the bear returns in earnest (if history will rhyme)

 

So for now, buy the dips I say!

 

1st long 42737. Looking to add if she goes below 42500.

[Motion Picture]

For egg heads...

 

T40 Futures(Monthly)egg.png

 

Nice chart V!

 

And just to put it into context...it looks like we have a couple of months for the bull, before the bear returns in earnest (if history will rhyme)

 

So for now, buy the dips I say!

[Vertebrae]

For egg heads...

 

[RusQ]

 

EIJING - China's central bank is set to inject about 200 billion yuan ($32.66 billion) worth of three-month loans into five or six listed banks to keep liquidity ample and support the slowing Chinese economy, four sources with knowledge of the matter said on Friday.

The injection follows signs that Chinese investors are beginning to bet that the PBOC is going to reduce the official deposit rate, now fixed at 3 percent.

And it came after a 500 billion-yuan injection the People's Bank of China (PBOC) made into China's top banks last month via its standard lending facility (SLF) in the form of three-month loans.

"Banks got the notice this afternoon but perhaps will only receive the funds next week. This injection focuses on listed joint-stock banks," one source said.

Analysts also suspect that recent moves to guide traded short-term rates by lowering the guidance rates for repo contracts (CNREPO=CFXS) may be buttressed by cuts in nominal lending rates (PBOCC). The aim would be to encourage state-owned banks to lower the cost of credit for productive investments.

Central bank officials whom Reuters contacted couldn't immediately confirm the injection plan.

 

32b$ is a pittance? to keep banks liquid?? yeah right, lettuce rise a bit more!

[Plasma]

Monday we will rally like a rocket is strapped to this thing.
There is a rumor that China is going to pump $33 bil into its banks.

 

EIJING - China's central bank is set to inject about 200 billion yuan ($32.66 billion) worth of three-month loans into five or six listed banks to keep liquidity ample and support the slowing Chinese economy, four sources with knowledge of the matter said on Friday.

The injection follows signs that Chinese investors are beginning to bet that the PBOC is going to reduce the official deposit rate, now fixed at 3 percent.

And it came after a 500 billion-yuan injection the People's Bank of China (PBOC) made into China's top banks last month via its standard lending facility (SLF) in the form of three-month loans.

"Banks got the notice this afternoon but perhaps will only receive the funds next week. This injection focuses on listed joint-stock banks," one source said.

Analysts also suspect that recent moves to guide traded short-term rates by lowering the guidance rates for repo contracts (CNREPO=CFXS) may be buttressed by cuts in nominal lending rates (PBOCC). The aim would be to encourage state-owned banks to lower the cost of credit for productive investments.

Central bank officials whom Reuters contacted couldn't immediately confirm the injection plan.

[Beorn]

So down we go?

In consultation with a long lost relative of Mr Elliott it would seem that this is an upleg to be followed by a bigger downleg.
How big each leg can vary, but most likely is the 38.2% retrace of that downleg in an abc pattern.
So this upleg still a bit short of what is expected but can go just about all the way back to the starting point.
So we can see as it goes. And the size of the first leg tells a story of how big further legs likely to be.
And so we go. And all is well until the unexpected drops a 14 pound hammer.
I expect this leg is done, next is down. It feels like not more than 50% but whatever. It will be small.
After that must be up to make 3 legs. That is the dangerous one, can go from smallest to being way way the largest.
Anyway it feels like the whole 3 legs up thing is constrained by massive technical damage and so
I go for the short 38.2% retrace followed by an almighty downleg that will make you dance

Monday we will rally like a rocket is strapped to this thing.
There is a rumor that China is going to pump $33 bil into its banks.

[Vertebrae]

So down we go?

 

In consultation with a long lost relative of Mr Elliott it would seem that this is an upleg to be followed by a bigger downleg.

How big each leg can vary, but most likely is the 38.2% retrace of that downleg in an abc pattern.

So this upleg  still a bit short of what is expected but can go just about all the way back to the starting point.

So we can see as it goes. And the size of the first leg tells a story of how big further legs likely to be.

And so we go. And all is well until the unexpected drops a 14 pound hammer.

I expect this leg is done, next is down. It feels like not more than 50% but whatever. It will be small.

After that must be up to make 3 legs. That is the dangerous one, can go from smallest to being way way the largest.

Anyway it feels like the whole 3 legs up thing is constrained by massive technical damage and so

I go for the short 38.2% retrace followed by an almighty downleg that will make you dance

[bear catcher]

And with less than a minute to go that futures gap closer just touched home.
That poor little wave is totally exhausted.

So down we go?

[Vertebrae]

And with less than a minute to go that futures gap closer just touched home.

That poor little wave is totally exhausted.

 

 

[bear catcher]

As Alsi climbs more guys post but when we drop it gets quite well I think it is gonna get quite very soon again,QE is gonna be brutal this is just a chance to get out of long positions imo and start building a short