35854 replies to this topic

[ALSI77]

hmmm... that is assuming, 1. That margin calls have to be paid by 12 - not in my case, and 2. more importantly, that the little retail investor getting margin calls moves the market and 3. that there are no other markets or other news going up or down affecting our market. I would lean more toward news coming out in the UK and Europe hitting us around midday... but that assumes markets move because of "news".

 

It is just ups and downs, the past is no indicator of the future - oh man technicals are going to shoot me for that - sorry chaps! No trolling!

 

Too many factors, I agree on that point for sure. It just looks like buyers falling over themselves thats all... find a reason for that!

[grantmu]

Imo the reason why the market is selling off like this, is because there are many trapped longs trying to buy this market up. Like the accumulation yesterday at 800, followed by aggressive liquidation.

 

Another factor is the fact that many of these longs have massive capital loss, leading to bigger over-leveraged trading, so margin calls usually have to be paid at 12pm. Failing a higher move, they sell.

Although we see the SA40 as a big part of your world, the truth is we are a very small part of the world economy. In order for someone to move the market to take out a couple of longs would cost more than the result would be worth. 

 

No matter what we are a resource economy and right now resources suck, we have also had a 50 tonne block of concrete on the gas peddle for some time. This correction is very very overdue. 

 

blaming the MM is fun but actually not very practical. the MM may be able to move the market by a couple of points say 100 or 150 but that is it, if it is more there are plenty of people watching (all of us included) that would see more separation from reality and scream blue murder, this all has a name and it is the free market, the free markets biggest rule is you cant win all the time, if you could we would all have retied long ago and never have to work for the next 500 years.

 

just a down cycle.

 

G 

[Argento]

She is closing in on her daily 200 moving day average,  my take is the 44050ish futures level could be the low of this move (is also on the lower weekly bollingerband), big cycle low date next week around the 08th Oct!

 

In my books this is still part of Intermediate IV of Major 5 of Primary III.

 

A

Make that more 44150ish!

 

A

[@sirgrantfleming]

Imo the reason why the market is selling off like this, is because there are many trapped longs trying to buy this market up. Like the accumulation yesterday at 800, followed by aggressive liquidation.

 

Another factor is the fact that many of these longs have massive capital loss, leading to bigger over-leveraged trading, so margin calls usually have to be paid at 12pm. Failing a higher move, they sell.

hmmm... that is assuming, 1. That margin calls have to be paid by 12 - not in my case, and 2. more importantly, that the little retail investor getting margin calls moves the market and 3. that there are no other markets or other news going up or down affecting our market. I would lean more toward news coming out in the UK and Europe hitting us around midday... but that assumes markets move because of "news".

 

It is just ups and downs, the past is no indicator of the future - oh man technicals are going to shoot me for that - sorry chaps! No trolling!

[Argento]

She is closing in on her daily 200 moving day average,  my take is the 44050ish futures level could be the low of this move (is also on the lower weekly bollingerband), big cycle low date next week around the 08th Oct!

 

In my books this is still part of Intermediate IV of Major 5 of Primary III.

 

A

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[ALSI77]

Imo the reason why the market is selling off like this, is because there are many trapped longs trying to buy this market up. Like the accumulation yesterday at 800, followed by aggressive liquidation.

 

Another factor is the fact that many of these longs have massive capital loss, leading to bigger over-leveraged trading, so margin calls usually have to be paid at 12pm. Failing a higher move, they sell.

 

[Vertebrae]

thanks, any idea why it seems to kick start the moves and seems to continue till 4 30, the could all be a coincidence and have no meaning at all, I just find it interesting. 

 

G 

 

Could it be a related stop hunt cascade? Don't know. 

[Plasma]

Baie gepas! Vorige een was autocorrected

[Plasma]

Baie gehad!

[grantmu]

Nifty closing  12h00 through 12h30

thanks, any idea why it seems to kick start the moves and seems to continue till 4 30, the could all be a coincidence and have no meaning at all, I just find it interesting. 

 

G 

[Vertebrae]

interesting, the drops that come daily seem to all start at 12, does anyone have any idea why, i would expect this to happen at 10 and be from the FTSE. i have gone back 10 days or so and every time we see 12 there is the start of whatever correction s going to happen for the day. 

 

G

 

Nifty closing  12h00 through 12h30

[grantmu]

interesting, the drops that come daily seem to all start at 12, does anyone have any idea why, i would expect this to happen at 10 and be from the FTSE. i have gone back 10 days or so and every time we see 12 there is the start of whatever correction s going to happen for the day. 

 

G

[Vertebrae]

Dumped shorts at 2nd test, although the exhaustion and breakaway gaps preside here. Divergence wants a b-wave. Thursday looks good for next D-day (Draghi). Although it can go either way I expect disappointment to bring on the c-wave, but short term only until adequate confidence rekindles.

[@sirgrantfleming]

I think we are approaching the bottom of this thing, using the MACD  on daily we are currently at the level the market normally turns except for one that goes deeper in august 2011. We seem to be loosing momentum and I don't think the bigger institutional selling has started yet. The only thing that has not happened is that normally the end of a drop is accompanied by a 1 percent or more drop to end off the down leg, that seems to be missing.

 

So the way I see it, if we drop into the end stretch and there is no institutional selling we are done for this down turn, if on the other hand that drop triggers a bigger sell-off then this will go much further down.

 

I hate protracted down runs. just cant play the bear for profit very well.  

 

Yeah the next set of psychological levels are teetering - some great long-term opportunities though! A great line from an institutional guy yesterday "bottom pickers get stinky fingers".
 

[grantmu]

I think we are approaching the bottom of this thing, using the MACD  on daily we are currently at the level the market normally turns except for one that goes deeper in august 2011. We seem to be loosing momentum and I don't think the bigger institutional selling has started yet. The only thing that has not happened is that normally the end of a drop is accompanied by a 1 percent or more drop to end off the down leg, that seems to be missing.

 

So the way I see it, if we drop into the end stretch and there is no institutional selling we are done for this down turn, if on the other hand that drop triggers a bigger sell-off then this will go much further down.

 

I hate protracted down runs. just cant play the bear for profit very well.  

Edited by grantmu, 30 September 2014 - 09:39 AM.

[Vertebrae]

Caldaro now favouring the Primary IV scenario 65%-35%

 

 

[TellyTubby]

[Vertebrae]

Cynical is always negative, is the market being cynical?

 

[Ninja]

Naspers holding up rather well at R1255 ish and mr price also still strong and green

[grantmu]

Vix over 16 and going up