35854 replies to this topic

[sequoia]

still holding, sign of a bull market that we ignore bad news, pretty tame sell off so far

Edited by sequoia, 21 July 2014 - 04:33 PM.

[Argento]

IMO...(chart)!

 

Tomorrow quite an important day, Monday's are known for being opposite of the trend so if proven bulls should start rocking from tomorrow!

 

Strong positive divergence on the 60min timeframe!

 

A

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[Motion Picture]

I THINK we're in for a lekker see-saw ride with European markets (and our OWN) taking us down in the am's and the US taking us up in the pm's?

Yea, i tell you, we'll have sea sickness very soon!

[BBW]

I am not so sure the bear is here, I get the impression that nothing has actually happened but the market is jittery, Gasa is already no longer the lead story, and the issues of the Ukraine are a little over cooked in my view, the news feeds are all harping on Russia but at the end of the day I don't think anyone is going to step out in front of this and say Russia was a bad boy, As soon as the world sees that this is just one of those things that happens just like what happened when the Chinese shot down the Korean 747.

 

This thing could still do a  u turn and go back to business as usual, my shorts have fairly tight stops just in case the market changes its mind. 

I THINK we're in for a lekker see-saw ride with European markets (and our OWN) taking us down in the am's and the US taking us up in the pm's?

[grantmu]

Thanks for commenting grantmu.

 

I hear you loud and clear. This bull-phase is not letting go easily.

I posted a week-and-a-bit ago that the 34EMA is proving strong support since way-back March 2014 for any possible downturning. This is purely subjective (and me wanting a lekker short now skewing my view), but between the 34EMA retests since March, there were +- 20+ days inbetween tests, but now that pattern is broken. Shows me the market is either nervous (jittery as you state) or the highs are in for now. 

 

Based on IG charts, we are +- 150 points from another retest of the 34EMA since late last week. If breached again, it will make for interesting decisions to be had to surrender longs (if holding) and entering short (if waiting). 

Spent the weekend looking at this, if we go back up and don't exceed the 47000 mark then I think we would be in a downturn. If on the other hand we blow straight through the 37 mark that will confirm the bull is still in play and we may see higher highs, the current dip may also be just a re test of the 36000 mark. This morning I thought that this drop was going to be quite dramatic, but there does not seem to be any driving force to take this thing down. 

 

G

[Lekkerry]

Thanks for commenting grantmu.

 

I hear you loud and clear. This bull-phase is not letting go easily.

I posted a week-and-a-bit ago that the 34EMA is proving strong support since way-back March 2014 for any possible downturning. This is purely subjective (and me wanting a lekker short now skewing my view), but between the 34EMA retests since March, there were +- 20+ days inbetween tests, but now that pattern is broken. Shows me the market is either nervous (jittery as you state) or the highs are in for now. 

 

Based on IG charts, we are +- 150 points from another retest of the 34EMA since late last week. If breached again, it will make for interesting decisions to be had to surrender longs (if holding) and entering short (if waiting). 

 

I am not so sure the bear is here, I get the impression that nothing has actually happened but the market is jittery, Gasa is already no longer the lead story, and the issues of the Ukraine are a little over cooked in my view, the news feeds are all harping on Russia but at the end of the day I don't think anyone is going to step out in front of this and say Russia was a bad boy, As soon as the world sees that this is just one of those things that happens just like what happened when the Chinese shot down the Korean 747.

 

This thing could still do a  u turn and go back to business as usual, my shorts have fairly tight stops just in case the market changes its mind. 

Edited by Lekkerry, 21 July 2014 - 02:26 PM.

[grantmu]

Starting to see red bear signs!

1d, 4h, (1h a bit saturated unfortunately) and still some on 15m and 5m.

I am not so sure the bear is here, I get the impression that nothing has actually happened but the market is jittery, Gasa is already no longer the lead story, and the issues of the Ukraine are a little over cooked in my view, the news feeds are all harping on Russia but at the end of the day I don't think anyone is going to step out in front of this and say Russia was a bad boy, As soon as the world sees that this is just one of those things that happens just like what happened when the Chinese shot down the Korean 747.

 

This thing could still do a  u turn and go back to business as usual, my shorts have fairly tight stops just in case the market changes its mind. 

[Lekkerry]

Starting to see red bear signs!

1d, 4h, (1h a bit saturated unfortunately) and still some on 15m and 5m.

[RBM]

45600ish would be nice too

possibly

[warnerbroers]

yes..maybe to 45800

45600ish would be nice too

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[RBM]

at least you are honest!!

and yes we are going down for a bit more...maybe 45900ish

yes..maybe to 45800

[davidp13]

yeah that was hope...

at least you are honest!!

and yes we are going down for a bit more...maybe 45900ish

[RBM]

did you not say 45600 by Friday morning already...hmmm

yeah that was hope...

[davidp13]

46100 by end of day

did you not say 45600 by Friday morning already...hmmm

[RBM]

46100 by end of day

[Casenova]

I love this: " A stock operator has to fight a lot of expensive enemies within himself" ~ Livingstone

[grantmu]

Can also be used to estimate what a drop or sideways move would look like. Allows you to time entry and exit during sideways or slow tick downward moves. still would allow you to estimate the waves of the market. 

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[BlythZ]

pic

Thanks Grantmu and Motion Picture

[BlythZ]

Hi David and BlythZ,

 

To figure these waves out my take is to firstly spot the size and then use in conjunction with the macd to determine are we in consolidation (bullish) or distribution (bearish) mode!?

 

Now using Caldaro's terminology (Primary, Major, Intermediate,minor, minutes, micro) what do we see on the chart:

 

Major 4 of primary III ended 13 Dec 2013....then major 5 kicked off!(Also confirmed by Caldaro)

 

But major 5 breaking up into 5 intermediate waves!

 

Intermediate 1 topped in January and intermediate 2 bottomed early Feb, so since then intermediate 3 has been underway (breaking up into minor and minute waves too)!

 

Now the macd (daily + weekly) shows you the current up and down moves since end June has been distribution and not consolidation, and given the size of Int 1, 2 and 3 we have not seen Int 4 yet!

 

Short term I'm still bullish and expect new highs into beginning August (no negative divergence on the weeklies yet for the Int 4 to kick off), although currently down!

 

Seasonally August has been known as a strong month, either bullish or bearish, last year it was bullish...IMO going to be bearish this year (nasty)!

 

Although some earnings might be weak still expect it to keep her up till beginning Aug!

 

A

Thanks Argento

[grantmu]

pic

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