35854 replies to this topic

[grantmu]

Hi Motion Picture, 

 

How do you map out channels? 

Channels will give you broad information, I have added a bit for you. The 3 limes that make up the channel show the bottom, generally the trend line, breaking of this line will indicate that the move is more than just a correction,

 

The middle line will tell you if you are above the line there is a strong move to increase the price, below the middle is usually a slower more steady climb, less chance of a pull back.

 

The upper line is generally a heavily oversold condition and would indicate that a pull-back may be on the cards.

 

Te lines across show support lines, old resistance becomes new support, the old resistance lines help to work out the channel, if you look at the top 2 support lines, the top one shows that the meeting point between the support line and the trend line is closing, the previous one shows the trend line is opening.

 

The lines will generally move to a point ahead of the market, the more of a point you are in the more you need to be aware that a break out to the upside or downside is going to happen soon.

 

Generally done on daily or weekly charts, daily for the next week, weekly to show a direction change, if the weekly moves you are generally changing direction for a sustained period of time, a couple of weeks or months, if the move shows on the daily and not weekly then you will be in for a smaller move, or be waiting for the confirmation of the weekly to change direction.

 

this is not exact but give you a good indication of when a drop or bull run will run out of steam.

 

will post pic in next post

 

G

[davidp13]

Hi David and BlythZ,

 

To figure these waves out my take is to firstly spot the size and then use in conjunction with the macd to determine are we in consolidation (bullish) or distribution (bearish) mode!?

 

Now using Caldaro's terminology (Primary, Major, Intermediate,minor, minutes, micro) what do we see on the chart:

 

Major 4 of primary III ended 13 Dec 2013....then major 5 kicked off!(Also confirmed by Caldaro)

 

But major 5 breaking up into 5 intermediate waves!

 

Intermediate 1 topped in January and intermediate 2 bottomed early Feb, so since then intermediate 3 has been underway (breaking up into minor and minute waves too)!

 

Now the macd (daily + weekly) shows you the current up and down moves since end June has been distribution and not consolidation, and given the size of Int 1, 2 and 3 we have not seen Int 4 yet!

 

Short term I'm still bullish and expect new highs into beginning August (no negative divergence on the weeklies yet for the Int 4 to kick off), although currently down!

 

Seasonally August has been known as a strong month, either bullish or bearish, last year it was bullish...IMO going to be bearish this year (nasty)!

 

Although some earnings might be weak still expect it to keep her up till beginning Aug!

 

A

Thanks A

[Motion Picture]

Hi Motion Picture, 

 

How do you map out channels? 

Hi Blythz

 

I use a drawing/mapping similar to the one Grantmu posted 4 posts below (sorry I'm not able to post charts etc...some bug in my system I think). The one line (bottom) is the trend line, the other is the "roof". It just helps give an idea of what MIGHT happen.

 

*NB - I'm still relatively new to the game. The pros may have better advice. I'm actually intending taking some readings on Fibs, Elliot Waves etc, to boost my knowledge....so please take my advice with loads of salt

[BlythZ]

Hey delta..my rationale is slightly unothordox. Been accumulating longs on the way down (to me uptrend is still intact until broken)...but this one was especially attractive being at the bottom of the channel...plus with all those oversold indicators on the 1H and below, the moment became too juicy to resist

Hi Motion Picture, 

 

How do you map out channels? 

[Motion Picture]

good call..what was basis for your long..oversold on 5/10/15min window? just interested

Hey delta..my rationale is slightly unothordox. Been accumulating longs on the way down (to me uptrend is still intact until broken)...but this one was especially attractive being at the bottom of the channel...plus with all those oversold indicators on the 1H and below, the moment became too juicy to resist

[delta66]

Couldn't resist....another long at 46353 (IG). Vivre le bull

good call..what was basis for your long..oversold on 5/10/15min window? just interested

[Motion Picture]

Couldn't resist....another long at 46353 (IG). Vivre le bull

[Argento]

Argento

Quick question pls. Why is the high of end Feb seen as the end of wave 1 and not the high of early Mar? Or that is at least how I understand some people to see the formation. If this is true than more than likely wave 3 completed 03/07 and because wave 2 was so complex wave 4 was not and we are already busy with wave 5, which will consist of 5 smaller waves. This will then mean we are about on our way to 49000ish. Looking at future and not J200

Hi David and BlythZ,

 

To figure these waves out my take is to firstly spot the size and then use in conjunction with the macd to determine are we in consolidation (bullish) or distribution (bearish) mode!?

 

Now using Caldaro's terminology (Primary, Major, Intermediate,minor, minutes, micro) what do we see on the chart:

 

Major 4 of primary III ended 13 Dec 2013....then major 5 kicked off!(Also confirmed by Caldaro)

 

But major 5 breaking up into 5 intermediate waves!

 

Intermediate 1 topped in January and intermediate 2 bottomed early Feb, so since then intermediate 3 has been underway (breaking up into minor and minute waves too)!

 

Now the macd (daily + weekly) shows you the current up and down moves since end June has been distribution and not consolidation, and given the size of Int 1, 2 and 3 we have not seen Int 4 yet!

 

Short term I'm still bullish and expect new highs into beginning August (no negative divergence on the weeklies yet for the Int 4 to kick off), although currently down!

 

Seasonally August has been known as a strong month, either bullish or bearish, last year it was bullish...IMO going to be bearish this year (nasty)!

 

Although some earnings might be weak still expect it to keep her up till beginning Aug!

 

A

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•  TOP40 (Overall view).jpg   150.16KB   6 downloads

[grantmu]

We may be approaching decision time, at about 46000 we are right on the bottom limit of the channel, if that channel support does not hold we are in new territory. For the past 6 months that support has held, the VIX is ticking up but I don't see this as enough to go through the support level.

 

If this is going to go through the support level I would say it would need someone in the political arena to do something stupid.

 

Tuesday is a meeting between UK and Russia and more sanctions may come out of that, that may add pressure down depending on how wide the sanctions are.

 

Lonmin to give results this week and word is they will probably be bad as they are carrying lots of debt.

 

If the world starts to get nervous the one thing that is guaranteed is that gold price will go up so the gold sector will improve, depending on how much this move is may will send us back up as the index is so heavenly mining stocks.

 

All of this is just my interpretation. 

 

G

 

 

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•  droptest.jpg   103.71KB   10 downloads

[grantmu]

Looks like the opportunity is coming up to get those shorts in the money.

200 to go to collect my shorts

[Wingnut]

Still in long but now I am dragging a short around that I will have to buy my way out of, may just leave the short right here and pick it up on the next drop. The VIX is calming down again so I see the effects of all the political stuff being deferd until further information is found. 

Looks like the opportunity is coming up to get those shorts in the money.

[grantmu]

Targets for this drop? 45400??

may just be a drop in anticipation of bad news, and not be a big drop

[grantmu]

Targets for this drop? 45400??

plenty of support at 46000. if it goes through then will look for next level

[bear catcher]

Targets for this drop? 45400??

[BBW]

I know it's a bit late, but is that a Head & Shoulders on the SA40 or a Double Top, or...?

[BlythZ]

My strategy consists of the following before I trade:

 

E - Elliot waves

S - Signal (Candle, macd, bollingerbands, moving averages)

S - Seasonals

C - Channel

 

It took me years to get to this but it works, and took me the longest to grasp the most important one...Elliot waves, have to know where you are otherwise the other signals will work but can still let you down!

 

Best way is to go back and try mapping the waves, like I said using Caldaro's terminology helps, cause once you master that you will be scared by just how much your account grows...knowing and not guessing, let's you sleep like a baby at night!

 

Go Bulls!(Not the blue ones)

 

A

Good morning All, 

 

Argento, you mentioned that we should have the red hanger sale soon or you are expecting a corrective wave soon, which wave is it if i may ask? 

 

I was reading about the Elliot Waves over the weekend and am yet to identify the waves quite clearly but at least i have a clue now. 

 

Thanks in advance

[Plasma]

Improving your trading performance will not come from some indicator that better predicts the market. It comes from learning the art of trading and understanding how to create a trading system that fits your wants, needs, desires and lifestyle. - Dr. Van K. Tharp

[grantmu]

those bears may not be quite done with us yet, I have shortened my stops, if we continue to climb I have a feeling it will be very short run followed by a sudden reversal. Company news this week is not going to be good at all, may not be able to hold the market up. FTSE looks be turning down, JSE has some big down signs in my view.

 

I am going to be cautious this week, currently still holding longs.

 

G 

[davidp13]

Argento

Quick question pls. Why is the high of end Feb seen as the end of wave 1 and not the high of early Mar? Or that is at least how I understand some people to see the formation. If this is true than more than likely wave 3 completed 03/07 and because wave 2 was so complex wave 4 was not and we are already busy with wave 5, which will consist of 5 smaller waves. This will then mean we are about on our way to 49000ish. Looking at future and not J200

[Vertebrae]

Hi Vertebrae, 

 

I won't block you, i value your input. So what strategy do you use, if you don't mind sharing? 

 

Starts with an edge...

 

http://www.wavetimes...ve-traders-win/