35854 replies to this topic

[Vertebrae]

Looking for the top (end of Primary III)

by price target

Deciphered for earthlings...

 

 

[Vertebrae]

T40 Futures - Wave 5  End Point from Elliott Guidelines

 

 = wave 1

of 1 to 3 inclusive

 

Add to end of 4

From origin

multiplier

1

0.382

0.618

1.618

Top

48053

47314

48523

49761

 

↑

↑

 

Normal pattern

If wave 5 is extended 

 

(Weekly flag pattern for TOPI targets 49,190 on that index)

[grantmu]

With all this talk of waves (very appreciated), my old way of looking at the market is ringing alarm bells that we are going to turn. In some form or another we are supposed to be connected to the FTSE, although we seem to be able to ignore most of the directions of the parent, the parent seems to be turning into a downward cycle. Will we be able to ignore these and keep going up. I also see plenty of doji dotted around on the 10 and 30 min charts, usually a sign of some mind changing going on.

 

Also the fact that on days we move more than 200 points seem to be pitched up at a very step angle, we are currently quite a distance from the median line (ma10) and the general rule is if you move to far from this line the market will come back to that line, in a sideways consolidation or a drop. Looking back in history most of the time when we are this far from the middle of the channel it comes back with a drop and not sideways. As far as I can find the drop is about 1000 points, having said that after the drop it is in the past business as usual and continue on the bull.

 

Are we not getting all caught up in the waves thing and ignoring the fact that after every rally there is a correction. To me we are due a correction back to the median or a sideways to hold at the this level. and just to add to the problem I don't think that kind of correction (1000 P ) would constitute a wave end point. so the wavers could be right and there is more coming. 

 

I just get the impression we are due for a bounce from the last 6 days of bull.

 

any comments

 

G 

[Plasma]

Extension repeats at either same or one lower order Sorry about answering for A, Its the 1st so today be my mistake day.

V is human after all! A

No A....V is an alien but slowly learning to express himself in English!

[Argento]

Hi A, just to recap...i'm still v slow at this...so you are saying we are in major 5 - INT 3 - top of minutes 5 - and now we could be on our way down to INT 4? thanks!

This is Caldaro's view:

 

"Currently Primary III is in its fifth wave, Major wave 5, from the October 2011 low. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in late-2011, and Major waves 3 and 4 completed in early-2014. Major wave 5, however, is subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in April, and Intermediate iii has been underway since that low. When this Int. iii uptrend ends we should see a small correction for Int. iv. Then another uptrend to new highs to end Major 5 and Primary III. We have been expecting a June high, July low, August high. But the current uptrend may stretch into July."

 

If applied and valid to TOP40 we are still in intermediate 3, minor 5 of minute 4 down that kicked off today...so minute 5 up should conclude minor 5 and end intermediate 3, then intermediate 4 down to follow that should be quite large in size...maybe latter July!?

 

So the post futures close-out drop were actually minor 4 (minor 3 sub-divided) from intermediate 3!

 

But taking this beast day by day...just need to protect ones capital with her!

 

A

[warnerbroers]

Extension repeats at either same or one lower order

Sorry about answering for A, Its the 1st so today be my mistake day.

[Argento]

Extension repeats at either same or one lower order

Sorry about answering for A, Its the 1st so today be my mistake day.

V is human after all!

 

A

[Vertebrae]

Sorry V...not sure what you mean by extension replication? thx.

 

Extension repeats at either same or one lower order

Sorry about answering for A, Its the 1st so today be my mistake day.

[warnerbroers]

Different terminology but looks like 3rd of this active wave topped on the spike and expect this is 4th with b happening and c likely for 46650 

ok great so then after 46650 ish we should be heading back up for new highs before the big drop to intermediate 4?

[Vertebrae]

Hi A, just to recap...i'm still v slow at this...so you are saying we are in major 5 - INT 3 - top of minutes 5 - and now we could be on our way down to INT 4? thanks!

 

Different terminology but looks like 3rd of this active wave topped on the spike and expect this is 4th with b happening and c likely for 46650 

[warnerbroers]

Hey V,

 

See Caldaro says the SPX is only in it's minor 5 now and still sees an intermediate 4 down and 5 up....makes me think this could still be part of intermediate 3 this being minor 5 too...so could see a bigger move down (intermediate 4) into next week from here?

 

Last time I saw this type of strength was in January and she became very volatile...last weeks weakness was too little for an intermediate wave of this major 5.....

 

Thanks

 

A

Hi A, just to recap...i'm still v slow at this...so you are saying we are in major 5 - INT 3 - top of minutes 5 - and now we could be on our way down to INT 4? thanks!

[warnerbroers]

Taking Caldaro as correct and even with differences between T40 and SPX we will be in need of a retake, Yes.

It may well be as you suggest. We may have been in an extended third or the extension can either split or extend yet again.

However, the behaviour of T40 has been spot on, so I would lean towards extension replication (assuming Caldaro does not recount)

Sorry V...not sure what you mean by extension replication? thx.

[Vertebrae]

Hey V,

 

See Caldaro says the SPX is only in it's minor 5 now and still sees an intermediate 4 down and 5 up....makes me think this could still be part of intermediate 3 this being minor 5 too...so could see a bigger move down (intermediate 4) into next week from here?

 

 

A

 

Taking Caldaro as correct and even with differences between T40 and SPX we will be in need of a retake, Yes.

It may well be as you suggest. We may have been in an extended third or the extension can either split or extend yet again.

However, the behaviour of T40 has been spot on, so I would lean towards extension replication (assuming Caldaro does not recount)

[Vertebrae]

V

Any reason why you using 31.8% for retracements.and not 38.2%.

 

Thanks F., so its more like 46600 then.  (reason could be to encourage others to check me)

[grantmu]

This may be thinking of heading south for a couple of days, the MA's seem to be turning, not committed yet, market could be just taking a breath to make the final run for the summit. 

[farouk]

If wave (iii) of wave (v) top is 47170 then 31.8% pullback for (iv) = 46699, so tightening stops

 

Caldaro gives highest of 3 options for wave III @ 2019 (probably between 47700 - 48200 T40 Futures)

V

Any reason why you using 31.8% for retracements.and not 38.2%.

[Vertebrae]

Hey V,

 

See Caldaro says the SPX is only in it's minor 5 now and still sees an intermediate 4 down and 5 up....makes me think this could still be part of intermediate 3 this being minor 5 too...so could see a bigger move down (intermediate 4) into next week from here?

 

Last time I saw this type of strength was in January and she became very volatile...last weeks weakness was too little for an intermediate wave of this major 5.....

 

Thanks

 

A

 

My take is T40 wave 5 of Primary III extended following a completed diagonal triangle. The extension has subdivided into 5 waves. We are in 5th subdivision. Now looking for top of the elongated 3rd within the 5th subdivision. (final 4th and 5th here can also be relatively short)

(but suspect it will take more than a brick wall to bring this baby to a standstill)

[Argento]

Minor counts negated.

Upper tramline containing the exuberance so long.

If 3rd wave top is 47000 then 31.8% pullback gives 46581 (Futures)

(A flood of good data can fuel the guideline for the extended 5th wave, which would imply SPX to circa 2200)

Hey V,

 

See Caldaro says the SPX is only in it's minor 5 now and still sees an intermediate 4 down and 5 up....makes me think this could still be part of intermediate 3 this being minor 5 too...so could see a bigger move down (intermediate 4) into next week from here?

 

Last time I saw this type of strength was in January and she became very volatile...last weeks weakness was too little for an intermediate wave of this major 5.....

 

Thanks

 

A

[Vertebrae]

If wave (iii) of wave (v) top is 47170 then 31.8% pullback for (iv) = 46699, so tightening stops

 

Caldaro gives highest of 3 options for wave III @ 2019 (probably between 47700 - 48200 T40 Futures)

 

 

[CPvanWyk]

They use bloomberg or other. Ig is not the same