35854 replies to this topic

[grantmu]

that's a clear wedged apex formation(tip of the spear) all point to a break out..up/down is the ?..stay nimble

for now I have cashed out of everything except the sa40

[delta66]

that's a clear wedged apex formation(tip of the spear) all point to a break out..up/down is the ?..stay nimble

[grantmu]

Decided to picture of the narrowing of the channel we are trading in and overlay the possible change within that channel over the past couple of months. there are possible points move and percentage within the channel and shows the decline and constants we have been operating in.

Attached Files

•  channel.jpg   98.51KB   32 downloads

[grantmu]

FTSE, JSE and the USA are all in sync for a change, all the markets look the same from a graph point of view, we have not been in sync for quite a while, those bears may be organizing the legions. I see momentum slowing, I think that cliff is getting closer. if you check the weekly MACD the JSE is right at the top of the measurement scale. The rest of the markets are mid to low scale, I think the effect of this is the JSE will see exaggerated moves when the down turn comes. The last time the MACD on the weekly was this high was in mid 2007 and we are higher than that point at the moment. as far as I can tell using a 10 moving average this market has never ever been this far from the median line. The indication is we are so far into overbought at the moment that the correction is going to be exceptionally fast.

 

as a reference the weekly MACD of the FTSE is currently 263 now and was 371 before the crash

the JSE is currently at  3577 and at the time of the crash it was 3251.

 

I have not worked out what the effect of this is going to be but it looks to me like the JSE is overvalued by a substantial value point, the JSE has somehow been able to avoid the corrections that have happened in the developed countries, this may be because we have a smaller economy and have been able to counter one problem index with another to hold the market at an inflated value, over time I think this may backfire on us. 

 

Some time ago there was a substantial outflow of money from the country, this at the time was attributed to a risk off attitude, I am begging to think that was not the case and was just the smart money making a quiet exit. There is no reason at the moment for our economy to be at the level it is at the moment, deficit sucks, labour relations are bad, we are not growing at all, and we export far less than we did 5 years ago. some of this could be attributed to the rand dollar thing but that does not account for an  up curve like the one we are on at the moment.

 

At the lowest point after the last crash the top 40 was at 15852, we are now at 46259 more than double the value in a time that the country exports have been in a very steady decline, this is not sustainable.

 

if there is anyone in the group that has ideas of how this can possibly go on in the same up trend please add a comment.

 

G  

[Plasma]

46400 looks like the top after 4 good knocks on the door

Yip...took a short there.....closed it...ending the week in the GREEN!!!!

[Hedge]

i think he meant 46387

Yes, that makes sense. Should have seen that. Thanks anyway.

[grantmu]

46400 looks like the top after 4 good knocks on the door

[Qbre77]

Sorry for my ignorance but what are you trading at 43687??

i think he meant 46387

[Hedge]

closed out 43687 for 187p...good weekend everyone, see monday!

Sorry for my ignorance but what are you trading at 43687??

[delta66]

closed out 43687 for 187p...good weekend everyone, see monday!

[Plasma]

win some/lose some Jakes ..next week you'll take some back +more

Jakes???

[Vertebrae]

Vix took a tablet, gonna sleep it off.

Someone big over there about to hurl.

This bug not very contagious.

 

 

[grantmu]

I think the morning was about taking profits, I see Monday as a down day so I would say the rest of the afternoon well be setting up for the drop on Monday, 

[Plasma]

A frustrating morning...2 longs before 0900 and place stop just below pivot and mr market said that is a nice target and gobbled it up...leaving my remaining long turning nicely green, but had a limit due not being able to monitor PA....so ended still in red ....and then another long later..some green, so now green for the day, but far away from what it could have been....cannot settle down....best then not to trade....

[delta66]

win some/lose some Jakes ..next week you'll take some back +more   

[grantmu]

Scalping today, 30 or 40 points at a time. 

[Beorn]

I've tossed the sink at a short on Sept Alsi @ 46478


No real reason, just looks like it was an over reaction today and I'm looking to close when we come close to a support line

Closed @ 46500
Went short @ 46578 not 478 sorry.
Some green, but this thing I dont trust, and in my experience we normally dont see big moves after 12. So I'm done for the week.

[delta66]

Can anyone spell bear trap?

yes!

[Beorn]

Can anyone spell bear trap?

[Argento]

Just something interesting to note, markets never end significant uptrends with a high momentum top, meaning before a large move down distribution needs to take place together with negative divergence on the indicators!

 

She is against her monthly and weekly bollingerbands and with the weekly RSI over 70 the air is getting thin, if I have my Elliot wave ducks in a row we should soon see a minute 4 wave down commence (once minute 3 tops soon) before the final minute 5 wave up to end major wave 5 of primary III.

 

With earning season in July it could fit in with the wave structure and create that volatility, but these tops normally takes time!

 

A

Attached Files

•  TOP40 Distribution.jpg   174.22KB   14 downloads