35854 replies to this topic

[Mostlya]

Ten Cents getting hammered

Perhaps 48200 was the top...

I wish. Naspers is unbreakable. Either Tencent is up or the Rand is weak. Its just too easy to blow the bubble.

 

Terrorist attacks are good for stocks. US will use this as a reason to go to fresh ATH and we should put for ours now. 

 

Meanwhile the biggest asset funds are starting to crash...Commodities, real estate etc. It's only the earningless tech companies that continue higher. Market breadth is a joke especially in Hong Kong. As far as I can tell Tencent is the only share that matters in Asia anymore. This concentration risk is global and integrated.

[Halfday]

Ten Cents getting hammered

Perhaps 48200 was the top...

[Halfday]

Thanks... the bar graph /chart that David Shapiro from Sasfin produced today was interesting in that our TOP40 is totally dominated by Naspers as everyone keeps saying..

Basically as David's charts show nothing else matters hardly even the currency moves,,,

 

Today was interesting because we look at mainly ! hour time frame and we had a nice long run of red candles which we haven't seen for a very long time...

It does look very overbought on higher time frames...

 

In the afternoon and aftermarket the S+P500 moves seem to be highly correlated to our TOP40...

 

Sweated out that 200 point move against us over the weekend after thinking  that was the top..

It was like this "" Cant go higher than that surely,,,

Short it now!!!!!

OK cool got  the top @48047 !!!

Oh yeah arent we so clever... Look at this we're in the money!!!

OMG its going higher!!!!

OMF now what????

Too late now!!!

 

Risk management went out the window but survived till monday and  made a few points ...

Lesson: cant short tjhis market yet!!! Far too soon!!! 

[Mostlya]

What do you think about the weakening USD index..

Surely this is significant....

YTD it has been getting weaker....

This will be good for commodities and therefore our mining stocks but the Randhedges better watch out IMO...

Maybe this will take our top40 down with all its foreign currency exposure...

I think if the participants in the market we actually using valuation metrics to buy it might be significant. The last 2 months have shown me that none of the drivers which underlie stocks matter anymore. When the dollar was stronger this was the trump trade and everything was amazing. Not that's its weakening the mainstream media has simply started saying this is good for trade in the US and that will drive it higher.

 

The randhedges will simply go up because the stronger the Rand gets the better the opportunity there is to get in before it finally hits 20. It just makes them more attractive. The commodity share will also be bought ignoring the fact that they report in Rands.

 

Essentially we're in a sentiment only market now in which asset correlations have broken down significantly. Perhaps intra day you can see some correlation still there but if you step back and take a good look at the JSE relative to those drivers you'll see it doesn't matter anymore.

 

The US is just buying now regardless of movements. The mainstream media needs a story so they'll say Wall street up because of Energy or Financials or Healthcare or Relief from something that was never priced in. The narrative is gone and the true narrative could never be written about because Journalists are too scared to be wrong. The truth is equities are in a terrible and mind-blowing bubble that will need a trigger to pop it. That's all that matters now.

 

I wish I could take this advice but watching this thing move day to day is a total waste of time. The strength of the bias in these markets is astounding however so if you can find a way to be liquid here there's a massive opportunity that the JSE is offering up. Not sure I can though.  
 

[Halfday]

We won't. This time it's different and the market will reach a plateau and remain there forever.

What do you think about the weakening USD index..

Surely this is significant....

YTD it has been getting weaker....

This will be good for commodities and therefore our mining stocks but the Randhedges better watch out IMO...

Maybe this will take our top40 down with all its foreign currency exposure...

[Mostlya]

Trump bump to slump back to hump,,,

When will we get the Trump dump???

We won't. This time it's different and the market will reach a plateau and remain there forever.

[Halfday]

Trump bump to slump back to hump,,,

When will we get the Trump dump???

[bullsnbears44]

I would love to actually meet somebody who is buying it. I wonder if it isn't driven by the passive ETF funds who are forced to buy it to re-weight. The larger it is the more they have to buy.

 

Looks like we're looking for an ATH now. Don't really see anything stopping ALSI getting that 50K. Had a good run at this at least.

Definitely the funds pushing it up. Because of the ridiculous index weighting they have to keep buying it thereby pushing it up even more. The market is completely distorted. ATH definitely look on the cards.

[Mostlya]

P/E of 100. Dividend yield of 0.16% Yet more proof that people never learn. Bubbles and euphoria will be there as long as humans are around.

I would love to actually meet somebody who is buying it. I wonder if it isn't driven by the passive ETF funds who are forced to buy it to re-weight. The larger it is the more they have to buy.

 

Looks like we're looking for an ATH now. Don't really see anything stopping ALSI getting that 50K. Had a good run at this at least.

[bullsnbears44]

I think you might be misunderstanding. I believe what they're saying is to re-allocate resources towards Naspers with a target of R5 000. It's unstoppable  

P/E of 100. Dividend yield of 0.16% Yet more proof that people never learn. Bubbles and euphoria will be there as long as humans are around.

[Mostlya]

Had a call from head office.. directing us to lighten up on naspers to buy back at more reasonable levels

I think you might be misunderstanding. I believe what they're saying is to re-allocate resources towards Naspers with a target of R5 000. It's unstoppable  

[Ninja]

Had a call from head office.. directing us to lighten up on naspers to buy back at more reasonable levels

[Ninja]

Sellers may come in late today... still stuck in traffic on the killarney bends roadworks... they will come

[Mostlya]

Is that a queue of sellers I see around the corner?

There still seems to be absolutely no selling pressure. Bulls paradise

[Ninja]

Is that a queue of sellers I see around the corner?

[Mostlya]

NPN will once again push us up. This is not a market anymore. It's Naspers and the rest.

I guess every bubble needs a narrative. The JSE narrative couldn't be more clear

[bullsnbears44]

Top? I joke

NPN will once again push us up. This is not a market anymore. It's Naspers and the rest.

[Mostlya]

Top? I joke

[Halfday]

My guess.. more and more shorts losing hope and closing out by end of each week

Thanks ... that must be about right...

I want to see the Bulls selling each Friday  when we go Bearish....

 

Suprised at how little the influence of the ZAR strengthening on the TOP40 ...

The Big Boys  were just grabbing Steinhoff and BHP all day...

[Ninja]

My guess.. more and more shorts losing hope and closing out by end of each week