7058 replies to this topic

[Zero Hedge]

See your point zero. That was the point of my initial poll, to see what the guys were thinking will be the shares that are effected most by a market correction. Do have any shares you think will be most hit by a big correction?

I understood what you were after...think most of the Retailers are vulnerable at current levels...add to that shares like SLM,INL,REM and even something like LHC (a favourite of the foreign investors). CFR could also suffer if the ZAR doesn't blow.

[Godfather]

See your point zero. That was the point of my initial poll, to see what the guys were thinking will be the shares that are effected most by a market correction. Do have any shares you think will be most hit by a big correction?

[Zero Hedge]

Thanks zero hedge. My thoughts are that when this correction takes place the PE of the market will drop, thereby making the share look more expensive on a PE basis as well.

Is this flawed thinking?

Your thinking is not flawed but remember in a general market sell-off FSR will not be spared...it will also come under pressure and PE will also come down thereby retaining it's relative PE attractiveness to rest of market. This means that at some level local long LO's will step in and rather Buy FSR than rest of market because FSR PE is in line with its long term average whilst market as whole is above it's long term average. So I would expect FSR to hold out better in market sell-off as a result...which is why I am saying that FSR is may be not that great a short. Just my five cents...perhaps it is my thinking that is flawed? Guess the difference between your thinking and mine is that you look at it on an absolute basis whilst I am looking at it from a relative basis. I am just saying that in general market sell-off there are expensive shares that will most fall harder than what FSR does.

[Godfather]

Thanks zero hedge. My thoughts are that when this correction takes place the PE of the market will drop, thereby making the share look more expensive on a PE basis as well.

Is this flawed thinking?

[Zero Hedge]

Crikey FNB does look overvalued.
Havent looked at this share for a while.

FSR only looks expensive on price to book basis...looks fair on PE basis relative to market and rest of sector. So not sure it is such a slam dunk short.

[Godfather]

With regards to the list of most overpriced.. I was thinking of a watchlist of these shares and then get an entry point for a short on some of them and wait for the correction.

Instead of trying to time the Top40 with a short. For me less risky yet you can still benefit from correction.

 

Any thoughts?

[Dust]

Firstrand

I'm looking at Brait (BAT) as well... it's been traded up quite a bit the last 2 months... results due soon

[Godfather]

Crikey FNB does look overvalued.

Havent looked at this share for a while.

[Dust]

Hi All

 

A little pop around poll to see who the most overvalued share is at moment?

i.e Most ripe shares for a short when the market turns.

 

 

1. Shoprite

2.

3.

Firstrand

[bear catcher]

Neg div starting to set in. Resistance above, maybe push to R37 but will apply caution for now.

Thanx AJS

[carlosthejackal]

Hi All

 

A little pop around poll to see who the most overvalued share is at moment?

i.e Most ripe shares for a short when the market turns.

 

 

1. Shoprite

2.

3.

NPN

[Godfather]

Hi All

 

A little pop around poll to see who the most overvalued share is at moment?

i.e Most ripe shares for a short when the market turns.

 

 

1. Shoprite

2.

3.

 

[AJS]

What is the take on old mutual, been long but starting to think it has reached is top for now, maybe a short from R36???? Any help or input would be appreciated.

 

Neg div starting to set in. Resistance above, maybe push to R37 but will apply caution for now.

[Hooligan]

Long CFR @104.30 for a scalp to 107 later this week.

 

 

[bear catcher]

What is the take on old mutual, been long but starting to think it has reached is top for now, maybe a short from R36???? Any help or input would be appreciated.

[Zero Hedge]

And now? African Bank? -13%

ABL shareholders should know by now...May always bad for the stock. Today was like de ja vu...2 May 2013 all over again...if memory serves me right ABL ended that day down almost 25%.

[Godfather]

Hey duster

Yip I actually shorted prematurely but when I re looked at chart I see exactly that trend line you are talking about.
Also all the indicators are indicating a short. RSI, BB band, CCI.

[duster.382]

Anyone else seeing a great short opportunity for Shoprite?

Absolutely - on 2/3 year chart; touching nicely on upper resistance-level (January/Nov 13 trendline).

Also very close to Fib786 from prev wave...

Plus a short just the better/safer direction right now, or what are we talking about..?

[Hooligan]

Adding to FSR short at 39.30.

 

Closed WHL long at 72.30 from 68.

 

 

[Rookie16]

Went in at 999 short on NPN. Is there more downside to this stock or should I quit while I am not so ahead?