7058 replies to this topic

[delta66]

Went long off APN @ R253, stoploss at R248.. Hopefully is it gets back up to R260 soon.

view on this trade is medium term..think ZH is correct in that it'll trade sideways to a channel for some time, top side being the 260-265 area. risk is still on for 240.00 level but kept initial entry small so can average out should there be further downside

[Trader007]

Went long off APN @ R253, stoploss at R248.. Hopefully is it gets back up to R260 soon.

[AJS]

260 (which was like, last week or something) seems so far away!!!

 

 

What looks nasty today may be golden tomorrow...

 

 

Nasty indeed!
What a day. My GFI and DRD took big hiding today too

 

I am (luckily) not long this counter.  There are surely stronger counters in this sector. BIL by far I think!

[Zero Hedge]

APN had a tremendous run since Jun 2011 and needs to rest now...it must grow into its rating.

[Zero Hedge]

Guys you need hearing me clearly on APN...I am not saying the fundamentals changed due to GSK disposal...all that I am saying is that APN is trading at a massive premium to global peers (21x FPE vs 15x for the no 2) in part due to an implied GSK bid premium. Clearly that is no longer valid as GSK is now a seller rather than a buyer of APN shares...which means the GSK bid premium needs to unwind. On top of that the rest of the GSK stake which will come on to the market at same stage will be an overhang. Stock should bounce back to 260 level but I can't see it much higher than that until well into 2014.

[HendrikB]

gold stocks suck you in because they look cheap.  Trade with caution.

[zoner]

260 (which was like, last week or something) seems so far away!!!

 

What looks nasty today may be golden tomorrow...

[@sirgrantfleming]

AGL is looking nasty! 

260 (which was like, last week or something) seems so far away!!!

[Queen B]

AGL is looking nasty! 

Nasty indeed!
What a day. My GFI and DRD took big hiding today too

[AJS]

AGL is looking nasty! 

[delta66]

adding to SBK 121.45

[delta66]

small buy(third of total position size) on APN 253.15/adding to SGL order at 12.70

[UpAnDdOwN]

the fundementals on APN don't change. imo..basically all that GSK has done was take profit and re-weight their investment(think they retain 13% stake)

Exactly! GSk held their investment since 2008 (APN +-R37)....not a bad profit for them at R250

Edited by UpAnDdOwN, 21 November 2013 - 09:45 AM.

[delta66]

the fundementals on APN don't change. imo..basically all that GSK has done was take profit and re-weight their investment(think they retain 13% stake)

[Moonraker]

GSK is big deal for following reasons...there was the expectation that they will eventually make offer to APN minorities. Look less likely now and in fact rest of GSK stake is now overhang. The fact that GSk is selling also signals to me an end to all the deals between the two and remember these deals were very favourable for APN as each and every one of them were earnings accretive from day 1. Could never understand why GSK was so wiling to sell products to APN on the cheap but now I know why...in GSK those products attracted a 8 multiple whilst in APN they attracted a 20 multiple...nice way to exit off patent product! I agree APN can do deals with other multinationals but the terms will be less favourable than what we got used to plus balance sheet is very stretched after the series of deals this year. I expect APN to trend sideways and the 260 level to be resistance for the foreseeable future.

I can't see the the disposal 'drawing a line to end all deals between the two' if one reads the statements by Redfern and Attridge of GSK.
 
 

 
GSK said the sale of the shares would not affect its relationship with Aspen. "GSK has a long and successful partnership with Aspen — and our investment in the company has grown in value significantly over time. Having assessed this investment we have now decided to realise some of this value without altering the basis of the partnership," GSK chief strategy officer David Redfern said.

"We remain committed to working closely with Aspen as shown by our remaining stake in the company and our board seat," he said in a statement.

GSK acquired a stake in Aspen in 2009 when the two drug makers entered into two collaborations in sub-Saharan Africa. Aspen has since acquired a number of over-the-counter and prescription brands from GSK which the UK company considered to be noncore. Aspen recently bought GSK’s thrombosis products Arixtra and Fraxiparine and their associated manufacturing site for £800m. The transaction was approved by Aspen shareholders on November 8 and is expected to close at the end of the year, according to GSK.

Aspen deputy group CE Gus Attridge said: "Aspen’s relationship with GSK remains strong. They continue to serve on our board and both Aspen and GSK believe our relationship will continue to be mutually beneficial."

Africfocus analyst Alec Abraham said that he believed the market’s response to GSK’s sale of part of its stake in Aspen was overblown as Aspen’s business remained unchanged.

GSK said the R7.059bn raised by the share sale would be used for "general corporate purposes".

[Zero Hedge]

GSK is big deal for following reasons...there was the expectation that they will eventually make offer to APN minorities. Look less likely now and in fact rest of GSK stake is now overhang. The fact that GSk is selling also signals to me an end to all the deals between the two and remember these deals were very favourable for APN as each and every one of them were earnings accretive from day 1. Could never understand why GSK was so wiling to sell products to APN on the cheap but now I know why...in GSK those products attracted a 8 multiple whilst in APN they attracted a 20 multiple...nice way to exit off patent product! I agree APN can do deals with other multinationals but the terms will be less favourable than what we got used to plus balance sheet is very stretched after the series of deals this year. I expect APN to trend sideways and the 260 level to be resistance for the foreseeable future.

[gamma]

trading both..but no position as yet on ALSI  WHL have been in for some time, still have open positions(all long) on TFG/TRU/TKG/SGL/ARI/MND/FSR/SBK/DTC would of added APN as well had i gotten my price today.

 

yep, APN looks a good buy on this dip. GSK relationship is irrelevant. They can partner with anyone they choose

[delta66]

just logged on..

what happened? back so soon from the ALSI? 

trading both..but no position as yet on ALSI  WHL have been in for some time, still have open positions(all long) on TFG/TRU/TKG/SGL/ARI/MND/FSR/SBK/DTC would of added APN as well had i gotten my price today.

[gamma]

OK!!..great day on woolies, setting a trailing sell order(triggered sell)(74.00) will be following and adjusting closely, hoping for 77.00+ in the near future

 

giving APN another crack tomorrow was to greedy on that 255.00-255.50 bid, with some luck might get it cheaper tomorrow

 

just logged on..

what happened? back so soon from the ALSI?