7058 replies to this topic

[AJS]

difficult one.  (1) sometimes it pays to jump in during opening auction.depends on how high it opens. if it opens a lot higher2-4% higher chances are there could be a pullback during the day.sometimes during a strong rally there is very seldom a pullback.(2)often there is a pullback intra-day 11-12 o'clock we see a pull back and hence a good entry.

 

Thanks bulls...

 

Now pondering between HAR and NPN 

[delta66]

My question is just: Not having a long over night, do I jump now in auction or rather wait...  I'm a bit torn.
 
*edit* thinking of going long HAR, SOL and NPN

Will also be bidding on HAR this morning auction. Huge short squeeze rebound anticipated.

[bulls]

My question is just: Not having a long over night, do I jump now in auction or rather wait...  I'm a bit torn.

 

*edit* thinking of going long HAR, SOL and NPN

difficult one.  (1) sometimes it pays to jump in during opening auction.depends on how high it opens. if it opens a lot higher2-4% higher chances are there could be a pullback during the day.sometimes during a strong rally there is very seldom a pullback.(2)often there is a pullback intra-day 11-12 o'clock we see a pull back and hence a good entry.

[Zero Hedge]

I still maintain APN had is irrational uptick and needs to rest now...

[gamma]

Re APN and NPN...I am not saying they won't go higher as I am accutely aware that a rising tide raises all boats. I am just saying I would expect them to underperform today. Tencent up 2.4% in HK as I type but after adjusting for stronger ZAR it's actually down 1.4% in ZAR tems. So that will hold NPN back. And for APN not sure how the fact that Ben pumps more money will cause the emerging marging consumer to buy more drugs or to visit their local hospital more? What I do know is those consumers will buy more watches and homes...and APN isn't selling any of these. APN and NPN had a sterling run YTD and me thinks it is time for them to rest!

 

Zero you are too rational 

 

I agree with you in principle however an alternate explanation goes as such:

 

On APN, in many emerging markets APN as a generic manufacturer serve the lower segment of the market ie state and generally out of pocket/poor insurance coverage. Its a well known fact that when consumers are under pressure they delay non-essential healthcare, including chronic med prescriptions. So although you are correct that the link here is not with more hospitalisations one should not forget that that is not really APNs bread and butter, its more the out of hospital chronic care segment. In addition, an improving economy in emerging markets means more tax revenue and more $ to spend on public healthcare.

 

Problem is that what I'm describing has a long lead time in relation to monetary policy and so while it makes sense in theory the practical implications should be relatively muted in the short term.

 

The real reason for the market uptick would be irrational exuberance.

[AJS]

My question is just: Not having a long over night, do I jump now in auction or rather wait...  I'm a bit torn.

 

*edit* thinking of going long HAR, SOL and NPN

Edited by AJS, 19 September 2013 - 07:21 AM.

[Zero Hedge]

Re APN and NPN...I am not saying they won't go higher as I am accutely aware that a rising tide raises all boats. I am just saying I would expect them to underperform today. Tencent up 2.4% in HK as I type but after adjusting for stronger ZAR it's actually down 1.4% in ZAR tems. So that will hold NPN back. And for APN not sure how the fact that Ben pumps more money will cause the emerging marging consumer to buy more drugs or to visit their local hospital more? What I do know is those consumers will buy more watches and homes...and APN isn't selling any of these. APN and NPN had a sterling run YTD and me thinks it is time for them to rest!

[gamma]

Gamma aspen going up nicely tomorrow . What you think about impala? Plat price up well.

 

Sorry Cuzin, I don't follow the resource companies so can't comment on any specific one but will say that in general platinum is a good area to be in over the medium term.

[gamma]

...and the same for NPN. Was a good rand hedge so why should it rally if ZAR moves stronger. Tencents will have to go up a lot in Hong Kong to offset move in ZAR. Surely NPN can't be a beneficiary of both a weak and strong ZAR?

 

Zero, your analysis is correct but a rising tide raises all ships. The other factor to consider is that APN and NPN are emerging market growth stocks essentially, notwithstanding APN being a healthcare/defensive stock. Emerging markets are technically the biggest beneficiaries of the Feds decision.

 

Lets see what happens over the course of the day. 

[OceanWalz]

...and the same for NPN. Was a good rand hedge so why should it rally if ZAR moves stronger. Tencents will have to go up a lot in Hong Kong to offset move in ZAR. Surely NPN can't be a beneficiary of both a weak and strong ZAR?

Hi Zero, you are correct what you say - but apart from conversion factor - generally share bids is expected to be higher due to negative/non event turning into a bull event not yet priced in the day traded shares by all punters

see early Asian market bids when they open ahead of us - not sure of what time opening is there, they are 6 hrs ahead of us - so make that in 3hrs time I guess if you want to wathc on internet, but Goodnight everyone!

Edited by OceanWalz, 18 September 2013 - 10:56 PM.

[Zero Hedge]

...and the same for NPN. Was a good rand hedge so why should it rally if ZAR moves stronger. Tencents will have to go up a lot in Hong Kong to offset move in ZAR. Surely NPN can't be a beneficiary of both a weak and strong ZAR?

[Zero Hedge]

Why should APN go up tomorrow...it's a expensive defensive with 70 perc of revenue outside SA?

[Sunesis]

Shorts to have a restless night tonight.

Big covering coming in the morning

I had six long position and one short.

I will try and hedge the short in the morning

[cuzin]

Gamma aspen going up nicely tomorrow . What you think about impala? Plat price up well.

[gamma]

Shorts to have a restless night tonight.

Big covering coming in the morning

[cuzin]

took long on NPN and APN today, also running open positions PNC/OCE/CFR/MTN/CML(all in the green except PNC/OCE marginally against me)

Also going for npn and apn, What about impala?

[delta66]

took long on NPN and APN today, also running open positions PNC/OCE/CFR/MTN/CML(all in the green except PNC/OCE marginally against me)

[cuzin]

i'm ready to rock and roll

Which cfd's are you looking at for tomorrow? Naspers for sure? and What else?

[delta66]

No tapering by FED just yet... US markets up sharply after the news.

 

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program a year ago as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.

 

Any takers for a down day tomorrow ? 

i'm ready to rock and roll

[Moonraker]

No tapering by FED just yet... US markets up sharply after the news.

 

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program a year ago as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.

 

Any takers for a down day tomorrow ?