7058 replies to this topic

[Pilotpilot]

Got my short trades, AGL @ R187-67 and BIL R264-70

[AJS]

Hey Delta,

 

I am also not comfortable with this trade, kicking myself for having not closed last week at 14075. Whats your plan here, i assume you not going to wait for the 13400 region, and rather close higher up?

 

There will most likely be a retest of the R138-R140 area before it powers on. But who knows?

[@sirgrantfleming]

Yeah - I decided to bail on Friday.  This actually a bullish break of a long consolidation. But lets see - you will get an opportunity to take profit I suppose.

 

VOD_weekly.PNG

Closed short

[crowe]

2nd tranche short added on VOD 14450...stop 14750

 

dont like this trade but sticking to my strategy

 

Hey Delta,

 

I am also not comfortable with this trade, kicking myself for having not closed last week at 14075. Whats your plan here, i assume you not going to wait for the 13400 region, and rather close higher up?

[AJS]

2nd tranche short added on VOD 14450...stop 14750

 

dont like this trade but sticking to my strategy

 

Yeah - I decided to bail on Friday.  This actually a bullish break of a long consolidation. But lets see - you will get an opportunity to take profit I suppose.

 

 VOD_weekly.PNG   342.33KB   7 downloads

[delta66]

2nd tranche short added on VOD 14450...stop 14750

 

dont like this trade but sticking to my strategy

[delta66]

thks AJ...wish they all worked smoothly like that another staggered order(long) placed @8000 again

[AJS]

closed TKG

Nice man - good stuff!

[delta66]

target > 8250

closed TKG

[Pilotpilot]

Closed my other trades except LON short, and going for more shorts on AGL, BIL, ACL tommorow morning.

 

ANG looks like an awesome short but hasn't triggered. The longs look weak.

 

See attachment on other (mostly Top 40) shares.

Attached Files

•  CFD- Bull Bear Triggers.xlsx   19.58KB   17 downloads

[Fuxx]

Anyone shorting capitec at this stage?

[AJS]

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018. To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation. The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR. According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.

Thanks for this. Think if you can get KIO R100-R120 and open your account again in 20 years you'll probably won't regret it. But interesting times ahead!

[AJS]

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018. To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation. The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR. According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.

Thanks for this. Think if you can get KIO R100-R120 and open your account again in 20 years you'll probably won't regret it. But interesting times ahead!

[In abunde]

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018.  To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation.  The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR.  According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.

Having said all that, I'm still loathe to short Kumba - given I don't think there is much further ore price reduction probable.  Also don't think going long on it is going to shoot the lights out either any time soon.  It may however drop further on sentiment, but I have not got my head around pulling the trigger on a short since it follows currently no predictable cycle needed for a clear predictive trade.  Clear as mud this one...I'm staying out of it.

[In abunde]

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018.  To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation.  The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR.  According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.

[AJS]

A pretty grim picture for monoline producers such as KIO. Picture might change when China climbs onto the stimulus bandwagon...<br /><br />  1429346926670.jpg   87.04KB   19 downloads

[Pilotpilot]

Thanks, good to be back.

[New shoots]

Anybody got an opinion on CML I'm currently long looking for 106 to 108 as target?

[In abunde]

Riaan Stassen sold c. R52m worth of CPI this week..... FWIW.

On Wed and Thurs and the Sens only out today, dammit Stassen!  Guess who's long on CPI...

[AJS]

Riaan Stassen sold c. R52m worth of CPI this week..... FWIW.