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Today's CFD Call


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#841 Pilotpilot

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:43 AM

Got my short trades, AGL @ R187-67 and BIL R264-70


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#842 AJS

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:39 AM

Hey Delta,

 

I am also not comfortable with this trade, kicking myself for having not closed last week at 14075. Whats your plan here, i assume you not going to wait for the 13400 region, and rather close higher up?

 

There will most likely be a retest of the R138-R140 area before it powers on. But who knows?


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#843 @sirgrantfleming

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:38 AM

Yeah - I decided to bail on Friday.  This actually a bullish break of a long consolidation. But lets see - you will get an opportunity to take profit I suppose.

 

attachicon.gifVOD_weekly.PNG

Closed short


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#844 crowe

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:38 AM

2nd tranche short added on VOD 14450...stop 14750

 

dont like this trade but sticking to my strategy

 

Hey Delta,

 

I am also not comfortable with this trade, kicking myself for having not closed last week at 14075. Whats your plan here, i assume you not going to wait for the 13400 region, and rather close higher up?


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#845 AJS

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:31 AM

2nd tranche short added on VOD 14450...stop 14750

 

dont like this trade but sticking to my strategy

 

Yeah - I decided to bail on Friday.  This actually a bullish break of a long consolidation. But lets see - you will get an opportunity to take profit I suppose.

 

Attached File  VOD_weekly.PNG   342.33KB   7 downloads


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#846 delta66

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:25 AM

2nd tranche short added on VOD 14450...stop 14750

 

dont like this trade but sticking to my strategy


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“melior diabolus quem scies”


#847 delta66

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:21 AM

thks AJ...wish they all worked smoothly like that :) another staggered order(long) placed @8000 again


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#848 AJS

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:18 AM

closed TKG

Nice man - good stuff!


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#849 delta66

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Posted 20 April 2015 - 09:16 AM

target > 8250

closed TKG


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#850 Pilotpilot

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Posted 19 April 2015 - 10:19 PM

Closed my other trades except LON short, and going for more shorts on AGL, BIL, ACL tommorow morning.

 

ANG looks like an awesome short but hasn't triggered. The longs look weak.

 

See attachment on other (mostly Top 40) shares.

Attached Files


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#851 Fuxx

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Posted 19 April 2015 - 05:06 PM

Anyone shorting capitec at this stage?


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#852 AJS

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Posted 18 April 2015 - 12:37 PM

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018. To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation. The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR. According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.


Thanks for this. Think if you can get KIO R100-R120 and open your account again in 20 years you'll probably won't regret it. But interesting times ahead!
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#853 AJS

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Posted 18 April 2015 - 12:36 PM

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018. To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation. The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR. According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.


Thanks for this. Think if you can get KIO R100-R120 and open your account again in 20 years you'll probably won't regret it. But interesting times ahead!
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#854 In abunde

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Posted 18 April 2015 - 11:13 AM

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018.  To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation.  The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR.  According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.

Having said all that, I'm still loathe to short Kumba - given I don't think there is much further ore price reduction probable.  Also don't think going long on it is going to shoot the lights out either any time soon.  It may however drop further on sentiment, but I have not got my head around pulling the trigger on a short since it follows currently no predictable cycle needed for a clear predictive trade.  Clear as mud this one...I'm staying out of it.


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#855 In abunde

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Posted 18 April 2015 - 11:06 AM

No new demand stimulus expected out of China for at least the next 6 months coupled with new mine capacity over the last 2 yrs, Goldman currently forecast iron ore price at $44 in 2016, $40 in 2017 and 2018.  To get the Kumba share price back to previous levels the price needs to climb, the only way it is set to climb currently is Rand/$ depreciation.  The IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt) CFR North China price is currently $50.75 CFR.  According to Macquarie this price is forecast $58 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $75 for 2018 and 2019.


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#856 AJS

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Posted 18 April 2015 - 10:48 AM

A pretty grim picture for monoline producers such as KIO. Picture might change when China climbs onto the stimulus bandwagon...<br /><br />Attached File  1429346926670.jpg   87.04KB   19 downloads
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#857 Pilotpilot

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Posted 17 April 2015 - 07:32 PM

Thanks, good to be back.


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#858 New shoots

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Posted 17 April 2015 - 05:54 PM

Anybody got an opinion on CML I'm currently long looking for 106 to 108 as target?


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#859 In abunde

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Posted 17 April 2015 - 04:05 PM

Riaan Stassen sold c. R52m worth of CPI this week..... FWIW.

On Wed and Thurs and the Sens only out today, dammit Stassen!  Guess who's long on CPI...


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#860 AJS

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Posted 17 April 2015 - 03:52 PM

Riaan Stassen sold c. R52m worth of CPI this week..... FWIW.


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