814 replies to this topic

[HDB]

PNC was a risky investment before this catastrophe. These kind of events can not be predicted but fundamentally are higher risk in the smaller cap space (not always). Why? because smaller caps are smaller companies and are growing fast (not always but fundamentally the reason we find them attractive). It is very difficult to manage risk effectively in a fast growing small company. You just do not have the luxury of dedicated resources to handle corporate governance and compliance. This is a valuable lesson for all of us investing in the small cap sector. It really is a good idea to diversify your smaller caps for exactly this kind of unpredictable event. Happened to me too once when I first started out investing. Greedily invested a nice lump sum in a smallcap chicken manufacturing company based in China but listed on the NYSE. Did well for 2 years then lost 80% over night due to a similar issue to PNCs. Learned a hard lesson that day.

 

Ignore this issue for a second - reason I don't like PNC is simple. Aside from their services business they sell hardware. Commoditized hardware. What made no sense is how they managed to operate at a margin of around 15% when competitors were operating at around 5%. If legit then there was more downside risk than upside (w.r.t. to the margin) but now we have another possible reason for why the margin was what it was.

 

For shareholders sake I hope this is isolated and the share comes back but usually these play out as a steady but volatile grind downward. The confidence is gone and investors with large positions are likely to try and off load on every rally.

Agreed 100%..

 

My first PC bought in around 1998 was a Proline...and this company started as proline...shares were around 50c and it was always in cash flow problems...around 2008 was trading around R2.00 and then the good results started..Price doubled to R4.00 within a month and just carried on going north since then...As you basically said....too good to be true!!! from 50c to R25.00 in 16 yrs was awesome returns but now at a very very big cost!!!

 

Gamma you think Aspen in same boat boet???         

 

At least I got hopes and vision...hehe

[Procrastinator]

Clear cut insider trading by the director concerned, gives one an insight into the character of this individual, how could anyone possibly believe his innocence iro the bribe story.

[delta66]

PNC was a risky investment before this catastrophe. These kind of events can not be predicted but fundamentally are higher risk in the smaller cap space (not always). Why? because smaller caps are smaller companies and are growing fast (not always but fundamentally the reason we find them attractive). It is very difficult to manage risk effectively in a fast growing small company. You just do not have the luxury of dedicated resources to handle corporate governance and compliance. This is a valuable lesson for all of us investing in the small cap sector. It really is a good idea to diversify your smaller caps for exactly this kind of unpredictable event. Happened to me too once when I first started out investing. Greedily invested a nice lump sum in a smallcap chicken manufacturing company based in China but listed on the NYSE. Did well for 2 years then lost 80% over night due to a similar issue to PNCs. Learned a hard lesson that day.

 

Ignore this issue for a second - reason I don't like PNC is simple. Aside from their services business they sell hardware. Commoditized hardware. What made no sense is how they managed to operate at a margin of around 15% when competitors were operating at around 5%. If legit then there was more downside risk than upside (w.r.t. to the margin) but now we have another possible reason for why the margin was what it was.

 

For shareholders sake I hope this is isolated and the share comes back but usually these play out as a steady but volatile grind downward. The confidence is gone and investors with large positions are likely to try and off load on every rally.

yep..that about sums it up

[gamma]

PNC was a risky investment before this catastrophe. These kind of events can not be predicted but fundamentally are higher risk in the smaller cap space (not always). Why? because smaller caps are smaller companies and are growing fast (not always but fundamentally the reason we find them attractive). It is very difficult to manage risk effectively in a fast growing small company. You just do not have the luxury of dedicated resources to handle corporate governance and compliance. This is a valuable lesson for all of us investing in the small cap sector. It really is a good idea to diversify your smaller caps for exactly this kind of unpredictable event. Happened to me too once when I first started out investing. Greedily invested a nice lump sum in a smallcap chicken manufacturing company based in China but listed on the NYSE. Did well for 2 years then lost 80% over night due to a similar issue to PNCs. Learned a hard lesson that day.

 

Ignore this issue for a second - reason I don't like PNC is simple. Aside from their services business they sell hardware. Commoditized hardware. What made no sense is how they managed to operate at a margin of around 15% when competitors were operating at around 5%. If legit then there was more downside risk than upside (w.r.t. to the margin) but now we have another possible reason for why the margin was what it was.

 

For shareholders sake I hope this is isolated and the share comes back but usually these play out as a steady but volatile grind downward. The confidence is gone and investors with large positions are likely to try and off load on every rally.

 

 

[delta66]

looks like some buyer interest/support around 12.00-12.50 on PNC

[Shortboy]

yes , true...thanks!! Will keep an eye on this one!!

Its already moving up but not by much. Price is around 624

[HDB]

Mustek is one of them.

yes , true...thanks!! Will keep an eye on this one!!

[MrDividend]

Orca with all due respect because you have had 3 so called solid holdings in your portfolio and they have performed well...Well until this **** hit the fan...

 

This is the precise reason we have been telling you not to hold so few shares in your port. U hold 3...One messes up and now u back to square one...U must diversify into a at least 10 so any  one share problem will not hold you back. Well i suppose you will learn from this.

 

However on the other hand if u a gambler, just buy more at the low prices and pray this **** will be over and forgotten in a few weeks and PNC goes back to around R18 to R20 and then you actually score!!

 

But please diversify your port as even a solid blue chip like CML could also mess up somewhere!!

 

Hmmm. If he had kept all of it in CML - like he had before everyone told him to spread it out (me included) he would, of course, be doing very, very well.

[Shortboy]

Wonder who PNCs competitors are and if they listed?? if this one is investigated and losses out in its contracts, some else is going to get them..

 

Anyone knows?

Mustek is one of them.

[HDB]

Think u summed it up nicely, letting him sell his shares before the announcement.. Interesting to see how this one going to play out, I'm not touching this one!

Wonder who PNCs competitors are and if they listed?? if this one is investigated and losses out in its contracts, some else is going to get them..

 

Anyone knows?

[Goliath]

Interesting speculation right there. The entire board might be found guilty of colluding with the charged director. He was arrested, and they delayed the announcement in order for them to allow him to sell his shares at a higher price, and then came the announcement, 3 weeks after the incident... Don't you find all that fishy? I wonder what announcement would these guys make, as far as i'm concerned, the Anti-corruption dudes don't make arrests unless they have concrete evidence, and why would a senior Police officer lie about the whole thing, he sure has recorded evidence stashed somewhere!

 

Think u summed it up nicely, letting him sell his shares before the announcement.. Interesting to see how this one going to play out, I'm not touching this one!

[gamma]

Wakaberry! Lol!
Didn't you tell me I was nuts to add FBR at 90?

Another great piece of M&A from one of my fav companies!
Now let's see what 6 months of Mr Biggs can add to the bottom line.

Typical grandma.. Comes out of the closet once the horse has bolted! At least I was brave enough to give my opinion before this morning. Now once shes gone against me, you come out with the dagger. Why did you not post your opinion before this morning.. Go figure.....

[HDB]

Why hedge? HDB told me to go long yesterday so I'm all in! Logic is if share went down 25% yesterday then it must be undervalued..

 

 

Typical  grandma.. Comes out of the closet once the horse has bolted!  At least I was brave enough to give my opinion before this morning. Now once shes gone against me, you come out with the dagger. Why did you not post your opinion before this morning.. Go figure.....

[WINH]

On a more serious note, expect PNC to come up with some BS statement today in order to calm the markets. Might see a bit of a bounce on that. That would be the time to sell. The story is far from over.

Interesting speculation right there. The entire board might be found guilty of colluding with the charged director. He was arrested, and they delayed the announcement in order for them to allow him to sell his shares at a higher price, and then came the announcement, 3 weeks after the incident... Don't you find all that fishy? I wonder what announcement would these guys make, as far as i'm concerned, the Anti-corruption dudes don't make arrests unless they have concrete evidence, and why would a senior Police officer lie about the whole thing, he sure has recorded evidence stashed somewhere!

[delta66]

..put your seat belts on!

[gamma]

On a more serious note, expect PNC to come up with some BS statement today in order to calm the markets. Might see a bit of a bounce on that. That would be the time to sell. The story is far from over.

Edited by gamma, 26 March 2014 - 09:58 AM.

[gamma]

Why hedge? HDB told me to go long yesterday so I'm all in! Logic is if share went down 25% yesterday then it must be undervalued..

Orca please do not sell....Dont listen to any noise. Let the heat settle. The company has lost 25% of its market cap in one day which is way too much for something not yet proven. Markets dont like uncertainty but in my honest opinion this has been drastically over done. If i were in your shoes, ill just sit tight and watch....

[delta66]

hope you guys in PNC are hedged against further slide..sell off is going to continue

[Shortboy]

I agree G. The damage is done just by having your name involved in something like this.

 

Unit Trusts, for the sake of their reputations cannot afford to be linked to this sort of stuff even though there were huge bets placed today. I see from Progressive Data that the PIC owns almost 6% of PNC equity. I wonder what they are going to do....

 

I agree G. The damage is done just by having your name involved in something like this.

 

Unit Trusts, for the sake of their reputations cannot afford to be linked to this sort of stuff even though there were huge bets placed today. I see from Progressive Data that the PIC owns almost 6% of PNC equity. I wonder what they are going to do....

Correction:- The info comes from Sharemagic Online, supported by Profile Data, not Progressive Data.

[Shortboy]

As Safrican said, sit tight.. it's tempting but I doubt the rest of the board didn't know about the bribery, its unfortunately the way things get done on the african continent and in SA, so if you want to take a punt sure but I'll wait a while if I where you, even if the guy is proved innocent the perception will stick to it for a while me thinks..

I agree G. The damage is done just by having your name involved in something like this.

 

Unit Trusts, for the sake of their reputations cannot afford to be linked to this sort of stuff even though there were huge bets placed today. I see from Progressive Data that the PIC owns almost 6% of PNC equity. I wonder what they are going to do....