814 replies to this topic

[gamma]

Gamma do you have any idea when the AFS are expected to be released?

 

What do you mean by AFS?

If Financial Statements then around 9-13th Nov

[gamma]

nice gamma, see you still a holder of ellies...also holding them(ELI) but patience wearing thin. 

 

yep, Eli has been one of my star performers. up 270% in 2012. Down around 15% in 2013 YTD.

I'm still a fan of the company going forward. Been in a bit of a bad patch but I see very positive market opportunities going fwd.

 

Some updates for stocks in my LTP will be rolling in over the next few weeks:

 

VOD - Results around 7-8 Nov

Trading statement ~ 20 - 24 Oct

 

MPC -Results around 14th Nov

Trading statement ~ 20-25th Oct

 

CML - Trading statement ~ 26 Oct

Results around 9-13th Nov

 

BAT - Results around 29-31 Oct

 

LHC - Results around 16th Nov

Trading statement ~ 31 Oct

 

Busy month ahead!

[delta66]

nice gamma, see you still a holder of ellies...also holding them(ELI) but patience wearing thin. 

[gamma]

nice day for the old LTP so will take this opportunity to provide an update

 

YTD 35%

 

Current holdings attached in order of weighting

 

 

 LTP 15 Oct 13.PNG   11.12KB   61 downloads

[newbie]

Gamma do you have any idea when the AFS are expected to be released?

[gamma]

I don't know PSG but CML is overbought but could still run for a year at this rate. A stage will come where the assets under management gets

too large to manage. It is difficult to buy R8billion shares of a single stock due to liquidity. So long term might be a problem. There is 

line in the sand somewhere where they will have to stop. 

My guess is that the next CML is MTA. 

 

Orca,

Yes they will get big for the SA market but that is not really a problem since their strategy for a while now has been to expand their offshore operations.

Exchange controls is still an issue but in general they have lots of growth left in them as far as I can see.

IMO...CML, and other successful asset management companies, have one of the best business models in the history of business...

Given the dearth of such listings on the local bourse you absolutely have to own a piece of it.

Pick it up on the dips.

[orca]

Any thoughts on getting into either PSG or Cml now for the long term?

I don't know PSG but CML is overbought but could still run for a year at this rate. A stage will come where the assets under management gets

too large to manage. It is difficult to buy R8billion shares of a single stock due to liquidity. So long term might be a problem. There is 

line in the sand somewhere where they will have to stop. 

My guess is that the next CML is MTA. 

[newbie]

Any thoughts on getting into either PSG or Cml now for the long term?

[soutie]

This is the title of a research report on Wescoal Holdings by Blue Gem Research (Keith McLachlan). An extract from the executive summary:

Business overview: Coal miner with strong coal trading operations

• Built out of long-established coal-trading operations, Wescoal has moved into thermal coal mining for supply to Eskom.

• The Group has built a portfolio of valuable short- to medium-life coal deposits that are mostly either in or near to production.

• Khanyisa was previously the only producing mine, but Intibane began production during June 2013 and will contribute to FY 14E. The larger,

longer-life mine, Elandspruit, is planned for FY 15E.

• The Group has also recently conditionally acquired a large competitor in the coal trading space.

Key issues: Inland coal price and inland coal market dynamics

• The inland coal tends to track international coal prices, which have been under short-term spot pressure as softer global markets attempt to absorb

increasing USA exports.

• A looming 2015 supply defi cit to Eskom creates risks of regulatory intervention in South Africa’s inland coal market.

Forecast, valuation and implied return: Highly sensitive to coal price

• Our forecasts are heavily infl uenced by the assumptions underpinning the timing, effi ciency and rate of Wescoal’s new coal mines; critically,

Intibane in the short term (from FY 14E) and Elandspruit in the medium term (from FY 15E).

• Our SOTPs on Wescoal arrives at a fair value of R367 million or 213 cents per share, 54% more than the current share price on an implied PE of

18.6x of historical earnings. This implies a fair value of c.R10 per ton of in situ coal for the Group’s mining assets (c.218 cents per share per WSL

share) with a further R56 million or 33 cents per share fair value from the Group’s Coal Trading segment. We have taken out a 20% Group discount

for overheads and corporate costs.

• Rolling forward all the fair values at our cost of equity (19.2%), we arrive at our 12 million TP of 246 cents per share for Wescoal on an Exit PE of

10.6x, implying an attractive 59% return.

• As a junior coal miner, our valuation of Wescoal is based on the assumption of a fl at spot coal price. A sensitivity analysis of our models sees our

fair value changing by between 10 cents per share to 13 cents per share for every 1% change in the assumed coal price.

 

 

From their shareholder news letter thingy.

[Goliath]

Im in at R3, will keep holding.. if a buyout comes my guess will be around R3,50 range they'll offer, but let's see? Either way, im happy to hold for now

 

Wanted to add: Hopefully they won't do buyout just yet as I like this one a lot due to promising potential, but if they do a buyout hopefully they'll offer R3,90 again

[Goliath]

Ok... this is very speculative.

Im in at R3, will keep holding.. if a buyout comes my guess will be around R3,50 range they'll offer, but let's see? Either way, im happy to hold for now

[HendrikB]

The question has got to be...what will Paladin pay for the balance of the shares. Litha offered 390c when they announced intention to delist a few months back. I would imagine tat Paladin would offer a similar price. If you take a position at the current share price, you might see a 30% return in a few months. 

 

Ok... this is very speculative.

[michaessers]

The question has got to be...what will Paladin pay for the balance of the shares. Litha offered 390c when they announced intention to delist a few months back. I would imagine tat Paladin would offer a similar price. If you take a position at the current share price, you might see a 30% return in a few months. 

[Jonny]

Paladin have upped their stake in Litha to 61.53%. I smell a buy-out on the horizon.

I was thinking the same thing.

They went from? What was it? 57%? Something like that. Really a weird choice to make. I can understand 49% to 51% but 61% looks a lot like it wants to be 100%

[michaessers]

Paladin have upped their stake in Litha to 61.53%. I smell a buy-out on the horizon.

[gamma]

I'm really trying to avoid being a smart ass but... depends on the price of the house?  I'm so sorry, but I had to...

 

Anyways, I did a ton of research on property a while back and in the end decided against it. There is quite a few articles on Moneyweb about this. Some of them actually crunch the numbers and give you best ratio rental income per area, per value of the home with expected returns etc etc. Just avoid articles written on websites, quoting the rental agent who actually advertise on the site... nobody in their right mind would chase away their source of income by posting a negative article about them.

 

In the end is it worth it? According to the articles I read... No... Yield of something like 8% per year etc. Knowing of the sensitivity of property vs shares (for some reason it is a volatile topic) I will leave it there, my 2c by someone that actually considered it and basically stopped short of negotiating prices.

 

My last final point... I know of two share forums in SA alone (there might be more), yet I know of no property forums (I would love to be proven wrong, something more to be added to my reading list)

Update: PS: I will gladly share the links and info about property via a PM to anyone that is interested. 

 

I agree with you.

When I started working I invested in property/rental income.

It can work, but for me is just too much effort and hassle, especially with the rights of tenants unbalanced. Once they default its is a very long and tedious process to get them out. Not to mention the lost income and the expense of lawyers etc. And unless you bought the place cash, you then have to service a bond as well. Not particularly liquid either...how long does it take to buy or sell a property? 3-6m if you lucky..

[AJS]

This market does not know what it wants......it was selling SGL till 6.89 ....bought some @ 7.00 it was selling LON till 36 Bought @ 37 and selling telkom tilll 11 bought a **** load @ R18.....now @ 28......now it selling GFI@ 43  at 2001 price...i'm buying....Eish i guess i'm just buying low and selling high

 

 

Thanks Gamma for advise...but rather bought a few townhouse's in Sandton and lonehill ...will get a nice rental income there.

BTW wwhich area in Jozi do you get the highest rental ?

 

Try Sunninghill. R15k per square meter easily! (Don't know if that is up there though, pretty expensive for me!)

[Jonny]

This market does not know what it wants......it was selling SGL till 6.89 ....bought some @ 7.00 it was selling LON till 36 Bought @ 37 and selling telkom tilll 11 bought a **** load @ R18.....now @ 28......now it selling GFI@ 43  at 2001 price...i'm buying....Eish i guess i'm just buying low and selling high

 

 

Thanks Gamma for advise...but rather bought a few townhouse's in Sandton and lonehill ...will get a nice rental income there.

BTW wwhich area in Jozi do you get the highest rental ?

I'm really trying to avoid being a smart ass but... depends on the price of the house?  I'm so sorry, but I had to...

 

Anyways, I did a ton of research on property a while back and in the end decided against it. There is quite a few articles on Moneyweb about this. Some of them actually crunch the numbers and give you best ratio rental income per area, per value of the home with expected returns etc etc. Just avoid articles written on websites, quoting the rental agent who actually advertise on the site... nobody in their right mind would chase away their source of income by posting a negative article about them.

 

In the end is it worth it? According to the articles I read... No... Yield of something like 8% per year etc. Knowing of the sensitivity of property vs shares (for some reason it is a volatile topic) I will leave it there, my 2c by someone that actually considered it and basically stopped short of negotiating prices.

 

My last final point... I know of two share forums in SA alone (there might be more), yet I know of no property forums (I would love to be proven wrong, something more to be added to my reading list)

Update: PS: I will gladly share the links and info about property via a PM to anyone that is interested. 

Edited by Jonny, 11 October 2013 - 11:26 PM.

[Bounce]

This market does not know what it wants......it was selling SGL till 6.89 ....bought some @ 7.00 it was selling LON till 36 Bought @ 37 and selling telkom tilll 11 bought a **** load @ R18.....now @ 28......now it selling GFI@ 43  at 2001 price...i'm buying....Eish i guess i'm just buying low and selling high

 

 

Thanks Gamma for advise...but rather bought a few townhouse's in Sandton and lonehill ...will get a nice rental income there.

BTW wwhich area in Jozi do you get the highest rental ?

[Goliath]

Up 15% in two sessions.

Making great calls Orca, jealous I am!