271 replies to this topic

[Procrastinator]

Can't see it turning around anytime soon, guess that's why I'm short this counter.
 
That's what makes a market....Sentiment gonna take over soon once techs are exhausted.

Good call Soutie, wow Kumba at 341 today, maybe okes are bailing on their long positions here, according to the talking heads this one is oversold delux, where is this going to find support?

[soutie]

Can't see it turning around anytime soon, guess that's why I'm short this counter.

 

That's what makes a market....Sentiment gonna take over soon once techs are exhausted.

[McEdama]

topping up @ 348 (if it gets there)...Not worried about this one, it will bounce back to +400 in 3 months time... :-)

[M e r l i n]

So would be brave enough to venture the re entry price on Kumba, in other words how far shall she fall.

They don't ring a bell when the share bottoms!

[Ninja]

Honestly, I don't know how many small fries like me can truly claim to be subscribers to long term investing.....
Many of these guys can't even hold for 3 months.
If you buying now, I suggest you have strong long term intentions and don't waiver should things get nasty

[__freeman__]

Iron ore is oversupplied but KIO is oversold. The oversupply will drive prices down which is a good time to get in. If you are trading then stay away, if you are a long term investor like me then buy now and smile in 10 years time. The iron ore price will stabilize and the world will keep turning.

 

Rail, ships, cars, rockets, buildings etc etc all use iron ore at some part of the production/construction process and will continue to do so for a long time to come (unlike gold!). It's all swings and roundabouts, buy the bad news, buy low etc etc. Everyone knows what to do but they want the money now now now, which is the antithesis of long term investment.

[McEdama]

Up 2% today, is it bouncing back, or just a quick reaction to good news from China?

[Zero Hedge]

Well I believe the world will not be able to use all the additional tonnage that is coming on stream later this & early next year.

 

While China is consolidating it's growth all that extra material has nowhere to go.....Which is being recognized by the fall in price.

 

Iron ore as a commodity is moving into an economies of scale phase.... smaller players in OZ  have already capitulated.

 

Kumba will return to healthy profits only when their stripping issue has been resolved fully at Shishen. 

 

Of the 30+ million tons they produce Mittal only takes +/- 6mil locally, while they have been a low cost producer they are not so now due to reasons mentioned above.

 

I reckon you may see R300 before you see R400 again....! Especially if the rand gets back below R10 / $

It's amazing...market has been worried about an over supply in iron ore since 2009...now that it's actually playing out everyone is surprised or doesn't want to believe it. Even the mighty Coro didn't want to touch KIO in 2010/11 because of the concerns around the supply glut that is coming...

[soutie]

Iron ore is on sale boys! 27% discount I hear. You think the world will stop using iron? Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

 

Well I believe the world will not be able to use all the additional tonnage that is coming on stream later this & early next year.

 

While China is consolidating it's growth all that extra material has nowhere to go.....Which is being recognized by the fall in price.

 

Iron ore as a commodity is moving into an economies of scale phase.... smaller players in OZ  have already capitulated.

 

Kumba will return to healthy profits only when their stripping issue has been resolved fully at Shishen. 

 

Of the 30+ million tons they produce Mittal only takes +/- 6mil locally, while they have been a low cost producer they are not so now due to reasons mentioned above.

 

I reckon you may see R300 before you see R400 again....! Especially if the rand gets back below R10 / $

[JLFB]

Iron ore is on sale boys! 27% discount I hear. You think the world will stop using iron? Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

 

How will this impact Kumba's share price?

[__freeman__]

Iron ore is on sale boys! 27% discount I hear. You think the world will stop using iron? Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

[McEdama]

Iron Ore dropped a further 2.2% now 98.50 (-27% year-to-date)<br /><br />http://mobile.abc.ne...volumes/5463990

[M I D A S]

The Kumba saga is not about the share but the sector, the iron business is not the place you want to be right now, the cycle shall probably reverse in about 3.5 years time, so you either close your eyes and wake up in 3.5 years, or you take your punishment and sell and reinvest the boodle elsewhere to make a buck, maybe half of it at least so you may recover your losses and get the cash back in the game - it is no use being obstinate by not wanting to take the loss - end of story.

[McEdama]

Support @ 350-, huge oversupply of the iron ore world wide - shall fall further to about $100/ton it is said.

So I shall be in the queue way down the line to get it back.

 

This is a copy from my link of 5 May

 

Benchmark iron ore fell heavily again on Monday, bringing the decline in the price of the steelmaking raw material for April to almost 8%.

According to data from the The Steel Index, the import price of 62% iron ore fines at China's Tianjin port was pegged at $108.60 per tonne on Monday, down more than 2.2% on the day as the market digested data showing stockpiles at the country's ports jumping to a new record.

Inventories have surged 25% so far this year and now sit at just under 110 million tonnes. As much of 40% of this ore is estimated to be tied up as collateral in short-term financing deals which could meanmore ore is dumped on the market once these loans are called in.

China buys more than two-thirds of the world's seaborne ore and forges as much steel as the rest of the world combined and a slowdown in the world's second largest economy has the seen iron ore price decline 19% in 2014.

 

Thanks M e r l i n, i'll add more @ sub 350.00, it's sure bound to bounce back to +400.00 sometime in the future

[M e r l i n]

Support @ 350-, huge oversupply of the iron ore world wide - shall fall further to about $100/ton it is said.

So I shall be in the queue way down the line to get it back.

 

This is a copy from my link of 5 May

 

Benchmark iron ore fell heavily again on Monday, bringing the decline in the price of the steelmaking raw material for April to almost 8%.

According to data from the The Steel Index, the import price of 62% iron ore fines at China's Tianjin port was pegged at $108.60 per tonne on Monday, down more than 2.2% on the day as the market digested data showing stockpiles at the country's ports jumping to a new record.

Inventories have surged 25% so far this year and now sit at just under 110 million tonnes. As much of 40% of this ore is estimated to be tied up as collateral in short-term financing deals which could meanmore ore is dumped on the market once these loans are called in.

China buys more than two-thirds of the world's seaborne ore and forges as much steel as the rest of the world combined and a slowdown in the world's second largest economy has the seen iron ore price decline 19% in 2014.

[McEdama]

KIO is down 9% the last couple of days, any other specific reason besides China ? do you see it reaching +R400.00 again anytime soon? how low can it go?

[M e r l i n]

Glad I jumped ship on Fryday, looks like my wish of buying back at cheaper price later is being granted (-1.66%), I took only a small shower with costs as losses, Sharenet graphs produced a sell indicator on Fryday which were very accurate.

McMoolah at least you shall get your money back via divs on this baby, if you hold long enough you won't be sorry.

I shall certainly buy Kumba back when in a 'buy' again (I want those fat juicy divs).

 

 

[McEdama]

I think the market might just like the supposed outlook for KIO.. as a short-term investor, I am optimistic about this share.. It should be in the green today and most of this week even.. an opportunity to go in and rake in some profits..

Thanks Vintage and Merlin! my average is 419.00 on this one, don't realy have much choice here, guess i'll be holding for a while just to break even...

[Vintage_Strat]

For every good news article I read, I read at least twice that many bad news articles on Iron Ore presently, according to some the market price shall fall due to over supply and low demand.

http://www.mining.co...rackdown-99478/

http://www.mining.co...hammered-35642/

 

So huge profits for the cast iron balls risk takers, of which I am not - prefer to be a ninny on this call presently, but am watching for any seasonal change of winds which would be favourable which would enable me to get my Kumba shares back in my portfolio at a more cost effective price.

 

 

 

 

I think the market might just like the supposed outlook for KIO.. as a short-term investor, I am optimistic about this share.. It should be in the green today and most of this week even.. an opportunity to go in and rake in some profits..

[M e r l i n]

Might be good news for KIO<br /><br />http://www.umetal.co...CFdQgtAod2FsAdQ

For every good news article I read, I read at least twice that many bad news articles on Iron Ore presently, according to some the market price shall fall due to over supply and low demand.

http://www.mining.co...rackdown-99478/

http://www.mining.co...hammered-35642/

 

So huge profits for the cast iron balls risk takers, of which I am not - prefer to be a ninny on this call presently, but am watching for any seasonal change of winds which would be favourable which would enable me to get my Kumba shares back in my portfolio at a more cost effective price.