271 replies to this topic

[M e r l i n]

Mc E, If you look at the graph (for some reason I am unable to paste it) it is a staircase going down, each bottom lower than the previous low, so unclear what shall be required to reverse this trend which is very intact.

 

And remember I said if it did you should bail out cause it would go down again, well it has and I am of the opinion that iron ore is not the business to be in presently, I look at the big picture first.

All investment decisions should be top down, only after you have done analysis on which sector shall best perform do you stock pick in that pile to find which share shall best perform.

I discarded this sector completely so shall not debate the individual merits of a share.

 

You may well trade the channel swings and make money however I prefer to sleep well at night.

[M e r l i n]

And remember I said if it did you should bail out cause it would go down again, well it has and I am of the opinion that iron ore is not the business to be in presently, I look at the big picture first.

All investment decisions should be top down, only after you have done analysis on which sector shall best perform do you stock pick in that pile to find which share shall best perform.

I discarded this sector completely so shall not debate the individual merits of a share.

 

You may well trade the channel swings and make money however I prefer to sleep well at night.

 

M e r l i n, KIO produces high quality grade ore which is mixed with Australia's RIO and BHP's lower grade ore...also look at the developments in India, KIO is well positioned for that market...

Cum'on, I think comparing Kumba with ABIL is stretching it a bit...

Remember I told you last month that KIO will reach +380 and it did?

[McEdama]

Mc E I jumped out on Kumba well before the dumper wave, the problem with iron ore is RIO is producing it a $20 so anything above that is profit to them, means they can underbid everyone competing in the iron business against them, plus China the big customer has it;s own iron mines now, in addition their business is very labour intensive which is prone to strike / union action - I shall look at Kumba in two years or so and I think that is when Kumba shall reach that level.
 
Careful of high paying dividend stocks as they are associated with high risk, African Bank is a good example.
 
 

This is a very volatile share, it goes up as quick as it goes down,


M e r l i n, you must have burned big time on this one, you are very negative on Kumba lol...


as for 280, KIO will never reach that level unless iron ore trades at sub $54.3/tonne which I doubt


This share will reach +380.00 again in September (as it always do)


This is a well run, profit generating busses which just concluded a 3 year wage deal, and pays good div.


My advise would be: if you're playing in the resources space, keep an eye on it, if not - leave it to us to ride these waves ;-)


personally I think this level is a bottom for this 'cycle'

M e r l i n, KIO produces high quality grade ore which is mixed with Australia's RIO and BHP's lower grade ore...also look at the developments in India, KIO is well positioned for that market...

Cum'on, I think comparing Kumba with ABIL is stretching it a bit...

Remember I told you last month that KIO will reach +380 and it did?

[M e r l i n]

Mc E I jumped out on Kumba well before the dumper wave, the problem with iron ore is RIO is producing it a $20 so anything above that is profit to them, means they can underbid everyone competing in the iron business against them, plus China the big customer has it;s own iron mines now, in addition their business is very labour intensive which is prone to strike / union action - I shall look at Kumba in two years or so and I think that is when Kumba shall reach that level.

 

Careful of high paying dividend stocks as they are associated with high risk, African Bank is a good example.

 

 

This is a very volatile share, it goes up as quick as it goes down,

M e r l i n, you must have burned big time on this one, you are very negative on Kumba lol...

as for 280, KIO will never reach that level unless iron ore trades at sub $54.3/tonne which I doubt

This share will reach +380.00 again in September (as it always do)

This is a well run, profit generating busses which just concluded a 3 year wage deal, and pays good div.

My advise would be: if you're playing in the resources space, keep an eye on it, if not - leave it to us to ride these waves ;-)

personally I think this level is a bottom for this 'cycle'

[McEdama]

This is a very volatile share, it goes up as quick as it goes down,

M e r l i n, you must have burned big time on this one, you are very negative on Kumba lol...

as for 280, KIO will never reach that level unless iron ore trades at sub $54.3/tonne which I doubt

This share will reach +380.00 again in September (as it always do)

This is a well run, profit generating busses which just concluded a 3 year wage deal, and pays good div.

My advise would be: if you're playing in the resources space, keep an eye on it, if not - leave it to us to ride these waves ;-)

personally I think this level is a bottom for this 'cycle'

[M e r l i n]

Soutie this is why Kumba is not a buy at any price, they just cannot compete with Rio -

 

I shall look at Kumba sub 285 only for when hell freezes over one day maybe.

 

Don't take my word for it. Take the word of Sam Walsh, chief executive of Rio Tinto, one of the world's largest suppliers of seaborne ore and one of the companies contributing to the current supply surge.

 

Now is not a time for the best iron ore producer in the world to take a step back. Now is the time for others to really feel the consequences of the price against their operating costs and for them to make decisions."

 

Rio won't be one of them. As Walsh explained in that August 7 conference call: "We are producing at a cash cost of $20 a tonne with prices around $95 a tonne, so very, very attractive margins and a very attractive place for us to be."

 

Full article here...http://www.fin24.com...on-age-20140828

[__freeman__]

It's not a badly managed company and they are still in the black by quite a margin which is more than can be said for many other miners. However they are price takers not price makers and so until/if the iron ore price recovers they will seem good value.

[delta66]

there has to be "demand" for iron which in turn begins driving share price.  no demand = no momentum

in saying that..i'm topping up LT port with some  

[McEdama]

Then why is KIO taking such a beating lately?  Would you foresee an upward move in the price?  It is trading at levels so low I don't think it ever traded at this level.

 

KIO tracks 'Rand-Price' of Iron Ore, Iron Ore is currently trading at its +2 year lows @ $87.30/Tonne, down from $143.00/Tonne a year ago, -30%

[Moonraker]

Then why is KIO taking such a beating lately?  Would you foresee an upward move in the price?  It is trading at levels so low I don't think it ever traded at this level.

Waiting for those high cost producers to close, eventually mopping up some of the glut. Looks like KIO is producing at a cost FOR of ± 25/30 $ p. tonne - is this more or less correct ?

Distance from markets may also play a role ?

[Bev]

Then why is KIO taking such a beating lately?  Would you foresee an upward move in the price?  It is trading at levels so low I don't think it ever traded at this level.

[__freeman__]

Unit cash costs at Sishen mine remained flat at R266/t and Kolomela mine incurred unit cash costs of R211/t, a 16% increase. A bit over the $20 mark. I suppose if the Rand strengthens much more then KIO will drop. For now they compete with RIO just fine on cost. KIO also get decent premiums because of the quality of the ore.

 

It's the mid cap producers in AUS that are getting the ore out of the ground for ~$80/t that are really suffering.

[soutie]

Don't take my word for it. Take the word of Sam Walsh, chief executive of Rio Tinto, one of the world's largest suppliers of seaborne ore and one of the companies contributing to the current supply surge.

 

Now is not a time for the best iron ore producer in the world to take a step back. Now is the time for others to really feel the consequences of the price against their operating costs and for them to make decisions."

 

Rio won't be one of them. As Walsh explained in that August 7 conference call: "We are producing at a cash cost of $20 a tonne with prices around $95 a tonne, so very, very attractive margins and a very attractive place for us to be."

 

Full article here...http://www.fin24.com...on-age-20140828

[McEdama]

What's up with KIO up nearly 3%, any news here? what's the next technical support?

[ThatBlackGuy]

McMoolah I know you want it up and you shall get it in the short term, then bail out for all you are worth as it is presently rising towards it's upper band of it's downward trading channel, but shall merely yo yo up and down in the downward channel each low lower than the previous and each high lower than the preceding one. Many amateurs shall be caught by the present attractive PE of 7, forgetting it is based on previous div which naturally shall not be repeated. Study the world iron ore situation rather and draw your conclusions on that, then only the microcosm of Kumba, the NAV is a mere 66- so even at 300- it is expensive.

 

I agree with the trading update. It is trading with a decreasing band.

 

I disagree with your valuation though. RAND PRICE of Iron ore is really what one should be looking at, and given where the rand is going, I'd say the PE and Div are largely sustainable of the short to medium term. 

 

The only caveat is the Capex, which will be a bit more expensive. But given where the Kumba is on the cost curve, the business will continue to make money, and will re-rate as soon as analysts see this.

[McEdama]

McMoolah I know you want it up and you shall get it in the short term, then bail out for all you are worth as it is presently rising towards it's upper band of it's downward trading channel, but shall merely yo yo up and down in the downward channel each low lower than the previous and each high lower than the preceding one. Many amateurs shall be caught by the present attractive PE of 7, forgetting it is based on previous div which naturally shall not be repeated. Study the world iron ore situation rather and draw your conclusions on that, then only the microcosm of Kumba, the NAV is a mere 66- so even at 300- it is expensive.

Thanks M e r l i n I shall do so, what would you say is the exit level @ current trend?

[M e r l i n]

McMoolah I know you want it up and you shall get it in the short term, then bail out for all you are worth as it is presently rising towards it's upper band of it's downward trading channel, but shall merely yo yo up and down in the downward channel each low lower than the previous and each high lower than the preceding one. Many amateurs shall be caught by the present attractive PE of 7, forgetting it is based on previous div which naturally shall not be repeated. Study the world iron ore situation rather and draw your conclusions on that, then only the microcosm of Kumba, the NAV is a mere 66- so even at 300- it is expensive.

[McEdama]

I'm really interested. Anyone got any opinions? Iron ore prices are unlikely to go up. On the technical side not too sure, looks like a close above 34000 would be good and likely move up to 35000. But I'm an amateur...

KIO en route to +R350

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[alsi_speculator]

I'm really interested. Anyone got any opinions? Iron ore prices are unlikely to go up. On the technical side not too sure, looks like a close above 34000 would be good and likely move up to 35000. But I'm an amateur...

[McEdama]

Anyone with technical analysis on this one?