Member
Posted 23 October 2014 - 03:38 PM
question is how close to NAV are these commodity stocks trading at.... Coz at some point Shareholders may well decide to declare insolvency and walk away with something before the stocks fall below zero or will they not?
Somebody once said "be greedy when others are fearful" or something like that
Point is pessimism is at its peak.... What more can go wrong for poor mining stocks
Not all mining stocks are created equal.
Some I believe (like Kumba) are more equal than others.
Yes, I will take your money! 
jedi
Posted 23 October 2014 - 01:28 PM
question is how close to NAV are these commodity stocks trading at.... Coz at some point Shareholders may well decide to declare insolvency and walk away with something before the stocks fall below zero or will they not?
Somebody once said "be greedy when others are fearful" or something like that
Point is pessimism is at its peak.... What more can go wrong for poor mining stocks
Yeah, unfortunately i've been saying that for 2 years 
ever more bullish!
Sage
Posted 23 October 2014 - 01:15 PM
Edited by Ninja, 23 October 2014 - 01:17 PM.
Member
Posted 23 October 2014 - 12:41 PM
Guess that's what makes a market.
I'm short from R294 yes I will take your money
All the best to you.
Yes, I will take your money!
Sage
Posted 23 October 2014 - 12:05 PM
Guess that's what makes a market.
I'm short from R294 yes I will take your money
Anyone need a heads up...!
Member
Posted 23 October 2014 - 08:56 AM
Excellent production report ... as expected from this world class operation.
As you were.
Yes, I will take your money!
Newbie
Posted 14 October 2014 - 01:27 PM
These shares are starting to recover nicely. Nothing close yet to what we lost on it...but every bit helps.
Think they should stay stable/show and upward trend towards the end of the year with the Iron Ore prices hitting bottom last week
Advanced Member
Posted 08 October 2014 - 10:14 PM
Negative sentiment exceeding fundamentals here for sure.
Newbie
Posted 07 October 2014 - 09:34 AM
KIO was way oversold even @ the current Iro Ore levels of +/- $78/tonne, i see it stabilizing @ +/- R315 ...the vlitality is going to continue for next year or so though until they reduce surplus ore in China.
Thanks... I think its very risky to try recoup some of our losses at the moment. Never know when it might just take another strong dive
Member
Posted 07 October 2014 - 09:27 AM
Hi Guys,
What are the latest thoughts on these Iron Ore shares? There is talk of a possible short to mid-term recovery?
Thoughts...?
KIO was way oversold even @ the current Iro Ore levels of +/- $78/tonne, i see it stabilizing @ +/- R315 ...the vlitality is going to continue for next year or so though until they reduce surplus ore in China.
Newbie
Posted 06 October 2014 - 02:34 PM
Hi Guys,
What are the latest thoughts on these Iron Ore shares? There is talk of a possible short to mid-term recovery?
Thoughts...?
Member
Posted 30 September 2014 - 02:08 PM
Sure, there has been a fundamental shift. There is more supply coming online.
But given the valuation of R600 a share just over a year ago, I find it hard to believe that the company is now worth R250 a share, with more downside to come. Sentiment continues to drive this stock down in my opinion.
As Field Marshall William Slim once put it, “In battle nothing is ever as good or as bad as the first reports of excited men would have it.”
I think we have a quite a few excited men in the markets, who have extrapolated continued increases in supply without factoring in
- growth (not in only China, but in other regions of the world).
- suppliers who will naturally fall out due to the price decline making their operations marginal. This will take a bit of time to set in.
- depreciation of the rand, a huge factor for Kumba due to their rand cost base, low capex and dollar pricing of Iron Ore. Rand weakness will kick into full force as SA politicians continue to blunder, whilst our balance of payments continue to widen and the US (along with the rest of the world) embark on an upward interest rate cycle, which cant be matched by SA due to sluggish economic fundamentals. This will increase rate differentials and result in further rand weakness.
Now, will Kumba weaken further? Most likely. But when we talk about value, there is little doubt in my mind that there is plenty of it here.
So ask yourself, what kind of an investor you are, and that will inform your decision to buy, hold or sell.
Yes, I will take your money!
jedi
Posted 30 September 2014 - 01:56 PM
My take is fundamental shift has occurred : GAZZILLIONS of product now available supply far exceeds demand.
I looked at forward buying contracts & at the moment 2016 iron ore trading at around $80
Now I'm no expert but that's a clear indication that this is not gonna change back soon.
Waiting to short.......
I wonder what the 2012 forward contract view of the 2014 price was?
Sage
Posted 30 September 2014 - 12:52 PM
My take is fundamental shift has occurred : GAZZILLIONS of product now available supply far exceeds demand.
I looked at forward buying contracts & at the moment 2016 iron ore trading at around $80
Now I'm no expert but that's a clear indication that this is not gonna change back soon.
Waiting to short.......
Anyone need a heads up...!
Member
Posted 30 September 2014 - 11:20 AM
Negative sentiment exceeding fundamentals here for sure.
Yes, I will take your money!
jedi
Posted 30 September 2014 - 10:10 AM
Haha being "Pot Committed" doesn't sound like a nice place to be...!
Do you really think it is close to it's bottom that you would double up (if you could)?? With all this daily doom & gloom on the iron ore price I suspect further drops coming for these shares
Yes, with a long term view - 5 years and above - on something like Assore at these prices - even if it drops another 20% the long term view should offer 100% on the plus side. May not want to be leveraged in the short term though
Newbie
Posted 30 September 2014 - 09:51 AM
It is called being Pot Committed. Time for a double-up! Oh... don't have any more cash.
Haha being "Pot Committed" doesn't sound like a nice place to be...!
Do you really think it is close to it's bottom that you would double up (if you could)?? With all this daily doom & gloom on the iron ore price I suspect further drops coming for these shares
jedi
Posted 30 September 2014 - 09:46 AM
I hope the guys who were in Long in these Iron Ore shares have cut their losses already... New 5 yr low last night
It is called being Pot Committed. Time for a double-up! Oh... don't have any more cash.
Newbie
Posted 30 September 2014 - 07:39 AM
I hope the guys who were in Long in these Iron Ore shares have cut their losses already... New 5 yr low last night
Advanced Member
Posted 26 September 2014 - 10:34 PM
It dropped about 2% till half the day, then changed it;s mind and ended .5% up.
But it shall drop back down again later on for sure, the end is certainly not nigh...
Patiently waiting for it to get to -R200.00, Iron Ore droped further last night to 5 year low of $US78.60/Tonne, KIO will drop a further +3% today with no end in sight....
People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do. (Isaac Asimov)
