3674 replies to this topic

[InSitu]

Is it wise to short from here?

[HDB]

my view free money between S2 and S1...ie if u went long at S2..

 

Nothing changed or happened re futures , fx  etc for the drop...Its was merely the thugs at play fishing stops!!

thanks ig for the free money!!

[HDB]

I did not take the first signal because it was way before open. Thought the CCI might be diluted because of after hour trading.

short signal was given after  9.15am...I took it!!

[mx125]

Exactly...wait and be patient...If you took the first short signal you would have been smiling!!

 

Those not following the rules are feeling pain!!

 

I did not take the first signal because it was way before open. Thought the CCI might be diluted because of after hour trading.

[delta66]

use cci/ma's/macd but obey pivot on channel trades

[HDB]

Today seems difficult to trade.

I'm sticking with the HDB CCI rules. Rather miss out than be sorry.

Exactly...wait and be patient...If you took the first short signal you would have been smiling!!

 

Those not following the rules are feeling pain!!

[mx125]

Today seems difficult to trade.

I'm sticking with the HDB CCI rules. Rather miss out than be sorry.

[strydomk]

Maybe I'm being dumb but why would the market sell off before the announcement. Pretty angry with myself for missing that long.

[HDB]

my view free money between S2 and S1...ie if u went long at S2..

 

Nothing changed or happened re futures , fx  etc for the drop...Its was merely the thugs at play fishing stops!!

[delta66]

still in with order to add just off S2(44750)

[mx125]

Looks like S2  (44734) is holding

 

[HDB]

Di I hear sirens?? Ambulance on its way!!

Forget the ambulance, do I see mortuary vans???

[delta66]

S2

[delta66]

stretchered out badly beaten up!!

[HDB]

Di I hear sirens?? Ambulance on its way!!

[HDB]

Hi HDB...in response to your question regarding the ECB decision this afternoon. This is the view of our bankers

 

Good Morning,

Please find the SA Morning Sheet enclosed in the attachment.

• ZAR bears take a breather ahead of ECB meeting
• Bonds continue to track ZAR and broad-based EM bond moves
• AMCU rejects government’s proposed wage settlement for platinum sector strike
• Markit whole-economy PMI prints at 49.7 in May, signalling weakening activity in both industrial and services sectors
• We expect the ECB to ease monetary policy by cutting both the refi rate (from 0.25% to 0.10%) and deposit rate (from 0% to -0.10%)
• Euro area final Q1 GDP: Still lacking a growth driver
• US ADP employment report suggests slowdown in private payroll growth in May

ZAR expected to lose ground against the USD in response to a more accommodative ECB. The ZAR touched R10.80/USD on Wednesday on the back of mounting credit downgrade fears, before recovering back to the day’s opening levels. Hopes that we are close to a resolution on the platinum strike front, caused some bond bears to lock in profits but a number of participants appear apprehensive ahead of today’s ECB meeting. We believe that more accommodation from the ECB could cause the ZAR to fall victim to broad-based USD strength, reinforce fears that one of SA’s largest trading partners is still fighting deflationary pressures and may also cause a rotation out of EM bonds in favour of peripheral Europe, which would all be ZAR negative developments. That said, while the ZAR could lose ground in relation to the USD, it could strengthen in relation to the EUR and hold steady on a trade-weighted basis in response to a more accommodative ECB. These considerations, together with the fact that the platinum unions have rejected the latest wage offer, lead us to believe that risk lies in extended ZAR weakness today in relation to the greenback, ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report, which could hinder the ZAR even further if the figures prove to be more robust than expected.

Thanks vencat...

 

Problem here is to many cross rates are at play!!

 

Our main concern will be pound/rand exchange rate!!

 

We know if he settles on stimulus as planned, dollar will strengthen against euro!! What the pound does against the euro and dollar is of key importance!! ie rand can weaken against the dollar, but if cross between dollar and pound goes the other way, we may strengthen against the pound!!

[vencat2]

Hi HDB...in response to your question regarding the ECB decision this afternoon. This is the view of our bankers

 

Good Morning,

Please find the SA Morning Sheet enclosed in the attachment.

• ZAR bears take a breather ahead of ECB meeting
• Bonds continue to track ZAR and broad-based EM bond moves
• AMCU rejects government’s proposed wage settlement for platinum sector strike
• Markit whole-economy PMI prints at 49.7 in May, signalling weakening activity in both industrial and services sectors
• We expect the ECB to ease monetary policy by cutting both the refi rate (from 0.25% to 0.10%) and deposit rate (from 0% to -0.10%)
• Euro area final Q1 GDP: Still lacking a growth driver
• US ADP employment report suggests slowdown in private payroll growth in May

ZAR expected to lose ground against the USD in response to a more accommodative ECB. The ZAR touched R10.80/USD on Wednesday on the back of mounting credit downgrade fears, before recovering back to the day’s opening levels. Hopes that we are close to a resolution on the platinum strike front, caused some bond bears to lock in profits but a number of participants appear apprehensive ahead of today’s ECB meeting. We believe that more accommodation from the ECB could cause the ZAR to fall victim to broad-based USD strength, reinforce fears that one of SA’s largest trading partners is still fighting deflationary pressures and may also cause a rotation out of EM bonds in favour of peripheral Europe, which would all be ZAR negative developments. That said, while the ZAR could lose ground in relation to the USD, it could strengthen in relation to the EUR and hold steady on a trade-weighted basis in response to a more accommodative ECB. These considerations, together with the fact that the platinum unions have rejected the latest wage offer, lead us to believe that risk lies in extended ZAR weakness today in relation to the greenback, ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report, which could hinder the ZAR even further if the figures prove to be more robust than expected.

[HDB]

all those who went long at/ near  S1, you are in clear and imminent danger of being stretchered out badly beaten up!!

[HDB]

even with the expected Draghi announcement?

all his dribble has been priced in!!

If he does not put his money where his mouth is, watch the scramble for the door!! Shorts will be in the money!!

And he has a history of dribbling without shooting!!

 

Only thing that worries me is how rand/ pound will react to news!! I will be keeping a beady eye on that!!

Edited by HDB, 05 June 2014 - 10:13 AM.

[Godfather]

even with the expected Draghi announcement?