183 replies to this topic

[DividendTycoon]

Slip sliding away! Let's see if I can buy some at 300c. Technically the share looking poor

I never take notice of technicals, but I think at 300c it would be a good buy. If I was not already over exposed (according to conventional wisdom) to this share I would buy more at 300c. 

[SoleTrader]

Slip sliding away! Let's see if I can buy some at 300c. Technically the share looking poor

[SoleTrader]

@Dividend Tycoon - your comments on the holdings 100% correct. Maybe, in time, if the market cap of the company grows, it will come onto the radar of unit trust managers.  The volatility of the share only increased after their move into diamonds, which I still believe is a disaster, despite guarantees, etc.  I have sold the bulk of my shares at 380c and have gone bid at lower levels. 

 

I am forming a view that the market has derated them either for their move into diamonds, or for forming a hodgepot conglomerate dabbling in everything. If they get the license later this year, we will only see the full impact on whether they achieved their profit guarantee in 2018? And I guess they will achieve it, simply, because if there are diamonds, I am sure that they would have been building up a stockpile that can be sold to honour the guarantee.

 

I wish they stuck to their knitting, which is financial services, and which they do very well, as opposed to trying to make a buck on everything.

[DividendTycoon]

Looking at the unit trust tool on moneyweb, no unit trusts own TTO shares. Yesterday's diamond announcement a bit of a damp squib, paying option money in Sierra Leone. Let's hope they find some stones. More interesting is why have they bought the business in TTO as opposed to via Huso, as originally stated? Can it be that they are struggling to get approval, as per my previous postings on the suspicious quality of the asset?

80% of shares owned by QVR, Pershing/midbook/conduit, and Snowball. Maybe another 10% by directors and other staff and long term private investors. Leaves about 80 million shares, not really much scope for any big institutional investors. Add to that the career risk of investing in a share that is very volatile, means most fund managers would not invest anyway. Not sure about your mining question.

[SoleTrader]

Looking at the unit trust tool on moneyweb, no unit trusts own TTO shares. Yesterday's diamond announcement a bit of a damp squib, paying option money in Sierra Leone. Let's hope they find some stones. More interesting is why have they bought the business in TTO as opposed to via Huso, as originally stated? Can it be that they are struggling to get approval, as per my previous postings on the suspicious quality of the asset?

[DividendTycoon]

Still fairly low volumes, so doubt it institutional buying. Not aware of any possible announcements, but perhaps somebody knows something. Share is also cheap if look at the fundamentals, even at R4 is under 8 P/E and can possibly keep growth rate high, although it is sometimes difficult getting a good feel for actual profit and property revaluations etc. Nevertheless the property holdings do reduce balance sheet risk as is possibly still undervalued.

[SoleTrader]

Strong demand for the share all day, according to my broker. Maybe an announcement is being made soon?

[SoleTrader]

With Conduit buying Snowball and Midbrookelane the combined entity will hope a massive exposure to TTO. Let's hope there is no attempt by them to reduce that aggressively, could cap the price

[SoleTrader]

I would rather take Namibia'a political risk over SA's..empowerment a fact of life. The jury is still out on management decisions, I am not selling my shares.

Your points are valid. A lot of histeria in one of the articles. As you same, empowerment is a fact of life, it's just the mode of implementation that's a risk.

[DividendTycoon]

The only positive is that it may cause them to rethink the diamond transaction. Amazing how a combination of political risk and poor management decisions destroyed what could have been the PSG of Namibia

I would rather take Namibia'a political risk over SA's..empowerment a fact of life. The jury is still out on management decisions, I am not selling my shares.

[SoleTrader]

http://www.namibian....tion/43242/read

A more maturely written article, puts the empowerment transactions in the same category as those we see in South Africa. Let's hope management releases a SENS statement clarifying this

[SoleTrader]

https://www.enca.com...mpowerment-bill

More of the same. I sold the bulk of my shares at 300c. It may turn out to have been a damn good price

Let's see how Trustco management responds to this

[SoleTrader]

The only positive is that it may cause them to rethink the diamond transaction. Amazing how a combination of political risk and poor management decisions destroyed what could have been the PSG of Namibia

[SoleTrader]

http://allafrica.com...1608050621.html

and now we know why the share has been falling. Sadly the risk profile of the company has increased to such an extend that I will be surprised if it trades above a PE of 5. Oh well, another crap small cap stock.

[DividendTycoon]

I would prefer if it the share increased on small volume!

 

The realisty is that the diamond transaction is not being concluded - i cannot believe that is will take 9 months to get a signature from some government official, especially where the mine is so lucrative as presented to shareholders and given van Rooyens contact with governenment officials (the Nam President is a personal friend, who served on the TTO board in the past...). 

 

Also, are shareholders being duped into buying an overvalued asset?!

 

We need clarity, and until then, she aint going nowhere.  Concerning is the downward technical channel unfolding with a 210c support....Very far from current prices!

There are the profit guarantees on diamond deal for what that is worth. Cant help on share price direction, have never understood, believed in, or used technical analysis. 

[SoleTrader]

I would prefer if it the share increased on small volume!

 

The realisty is that the diamond transaction is not being concluded - i cannot believe that is will take 9 months to get a signature from some government official, especially where the mine is so lucrative as presented to shareholders and given van Rooyens contact with governenment officials (the Nam President is a personal friend, who served on the TTO board in the past...). 

 

Also, are shareholders being duped into buying an overvalued asset?!

 

We need clarity, and until then, she aint going nowhere.  Concerning is the downward technical channel unfolding with a 210c support....Very far from current prices!

[DividendTycoon]

Trading at 330c. No value add by van Rooyen and his band of merry men!

I might worry if the down move today had serious volume, but it is on R81k of shares traded so far today on a company with a R3bn market cap! Points more to a lack of liquidity than anything.

[SoleTrader]

Trading at 330c. No value add by van Rooyen and his band of merry men!

 

 

[DividendTycoon]

https://economist.co...ry-for-trustco/

 

This is interesting. It they had done this deal instead of dabbling in diamonds, the stock would be much higher today.

Agreed, makes much more sense. Ties up well with other financial businesses, people taking out bank accounts,life policies etc may be in the market for a unit trust as well. Not sure what happens with the insurance float, but they could perhaps manage that as well.

[SoleTrader]

https://economist.co...ry-for-trustco/

 

This is interesting. It they had done this deal instead of dabbling in diamonds, the stock would be much higher today.