183 replies to this topic

[Sugafoot]

Sole Trader, are you now buying then? Maybe market priced in the no diamonds deal?

[SoleTrader]

No diamond deal? Now how do they break that to the market!?

[SoleTrader]

So no news about the diamond deal, despite it supposedly would have been concluded before 31 March. I guess the Namibian dept. of Minerals stand by their 2008 finding that there are no diamonds 2. Trustco doesn't know how to communicate it to shareholders. Then there is the question of a very (negative) trading update that is due. There is no way they could have repeated 2014Qs artificially propped up valuation on their property. I would guess that the stock falls to the 250c level. Would I buy it back? Only if the diamond transaction gets canned.

[DividendTycoon]

Would not say there is a reason, has been on thin volumes. Small caps seem to run on sentiment until results released, then moves seem more real and substantiated.

[Sugafoot]

366c it ended today. Up quite a bit this week. Anyone know why?

[SoleTrader]

Looking at the market depth - 60 000 shares bid all the way down to 220c, over 700 000 share now on offer.

 

As Piet Viljoen put it when referring to the diamond deal and to Van Rooyen's total arrogant response - "The turkeys have voted for Christmas" and "Run as hard as you can, in the opposite direction"

 

Anycase, today is D-Day for the diamond deal announcement, lets see. I am bid at 200c for the share

[DividendTycoon]

Always a worry, but i have yet to see anything too significant to cause panic. 

 

Will be studying y/end March financials with interest though..

[SoleTrader]

Slip sliding away,,,

[SoleTrader]

Interesting to see a director resigning, directors selling, and not one of them piling into the undervalued Trustco?!

 

 

[SoleTrader]

I wouldn't go so far as comparing Riskowitz to Buffet. Maybe is 50 years time, and with the benefit of hindsight, yes, And at that point I will most likely be with Buffet pushing daisies!

[DividendTycoon]

I also sold almost completely out of CND, although not at such a good price as you, but still a good return. 

 

It does seem to trade at a premium on the assumption that it a mini Berkshire and Riskowitz a mini Buffett, but also not yet willing to give either of those two assumptions the benefit of the doubt, and wont buy significantly above NAV.

 

It is a pity about the TTO diamond issue, but have been holding since 2010 and want to see this one out, but any confirmation that diamond deal dodgy and all not well with the rest of the business and i will start to liquidate.

[SoleTrader]

I sold out of CND, for the wrong reasons, but at 330c! They have filled their boots with TTO, obviously the Riskowitz influence. They fired Adrian Saville (Cannon Assets) as the fund manager of their life funds.

 

Personally, I don't think CND is worth more than 200c

 

Looking at the facts, the business of TTO looks like a decent business, but the diamond deal is a noose around their necks. Its a pity shareholders were bullied into this, without the diamonds the share would be 50% higher. Anycase, I don't think we are going to see the 540c peak for a long long time 

[DividendTycoon]

I also wish they would stop revaluing property, but rather recognize profit when it actually sells, but feel that the amount of property they have may well be worth more than what it is shown in the books, hence NAV may be understated still, but it is difficult to know exactly how much of the land can be developed etc.

 

I hear you on the Riskowitz issue, although besides RBA his record pretty good. On a separate issue, given RBA and EQS and TTO if one looks at share price, i am suprised Conduit Capital trading where it is, if you follow that stock?

[SoleTrader]

@DividendTycoon, I hope you are correct. However I have learned that once the market gets sniff of a taint, as in the case of Pinnacle, the negativity can last for years!  The share is still trading at a premium to book value (ca. 245c). Also, looking at last year's results, the kicker into Q4 was a massive revaluation of the property book, which they cannot repeat doing indefinitely.

[SoleTrader]

Riskowitz just lost his shirt on JSE listed RBA, which has been suspended. Also his calls on EQS seem to be going south.

 

If the company had to invoke the profit warranty against its own CEO for selling a dud into the company, the market wont take that too favourable! The only silver lining is the fact that van Rooyen is getting shares iso cash.

 

This then begs the question where the csah is going to come from to develop the mine?!

[DividendTycoon]

Hopefully the profit warranty will kick in if this is the case. There are some large shareholders such as Riskowitz funds who i think would monitor that. Been disappointing to see share price tank as a result of these issues.

[SoleTrader]

The diamond venture killed the share, i agree. If is was so profitable, why did the previous owners sell it to van Rooyen?? Below evidence that there are no deposits worth exploiting, contrary to van Rooyens view.

 

http://www.rough-pol...news/22413.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DividendTycoon]

I have read the articles about the criminal records etc, but they are not too convincing. I have in fact seen a talk given by Van Rooyen where i think he admitted to doing something stupid when he was younger that resulted in a criminal record.

 

Most of the loan book is student loans, but as long as it is within the law and the resulting bad debts are not too high i would not worry about it.

 

Where i do agree is the diamond operation, in terms of future profits, that does worry me. However there are profit targets that have to be met for the transaction to happen, so hopefully that will limit any damage, but i do wish they had stuck to finance/property. 

 

I will wait and see what the March 2016 results show, i prefer to wait and see what the facts are.

Edited by DividendTycoon, 10 March 2016 - 12:56 PM.

[SoleTrader]

1. Rumours that the CEO has got a criminal record

2. Director a fugitive from the law

3. Their banking and finance arms are essentially loan sharks (e.g. one of their financed clients ended up paying R24000 for a R6000 laptop)

4. Their diamond business is a pipe dream - geological surveys of that area indicate no commercial diamonds whatsoever - van Rooyen wouldn't/couldn't even answer basic questions posed by the FM on the operation.

5. is the diamond operation a conduit for something more sinister, e.g blood diamonds from Angola and West Africa?

 http://www.namibian....ge=archive-read

 

 

[DividendTycoon]

Sole Trader, what are the rumours you have been hearing?

 

The FD sold about 10% of his shares, that is not too material. 

 

I believe it could be a mistake to sell Trustco and am hoping this will be a big winner, it is one of my largest holdings, so while i do not want to panic and sell, your post does worry me, so i would appreciate some more tangible facts..

 

Personally i like the property holdings of Trustco, provides a solid underpin.