60 replies to this topic

[SouthAfricanMi.com]

Terrible trading statement out by MTN yesterday. But the news was not unexpected. Ps we working on a new interactive chart for readers to play around with. Launched the first one today with MTN's share price. And we look at MTN's biggest contributors to revenue and pre tax profits.

 

http://www.southafri...g-9feb2017.html

 

Let us know what you think. Suggestions always welcome. A few more tricks will be added to the chart in coming days but this is the base we working off.

 

Cheers.

Edited by SouthAfricanMi.com, 09 February 2017 - 10:07 AM.

[SouthAfricanMi.com]

Based on the strong move in MTN, we suspect a few short's got squeezed yesterday and today after their subscriber numbers update. 

 

http://www.southafri...-24oct2016.html

 

We still bullish on MTN. Always darkest before dawn. Data usage up massively on MTN's network.

[Function]

Interesting article on the Forex situation in Nigeria

http://qz.com/805429...-your-currency/

 

[Halfday]

MTN downgraded by GOLDMAN SACHS to a sell

they should know better than me with all their resources...

[Halfday]

I noticed the technical analysis carried out by Sharenet showing the 2 options one long the other short....

But at the fundamental level with conditions getting tougher.. how can it get better? Logically MTN 's share price will go up only if their earnings grow...CFO says earnings are flat and costs are going up... What? is he fibbing?

 

At my level the company that I work for has just moved all its cellphones to Vodacom.. They were with MTN for about 15 years until their billing became a nightmare..MTN have lost about a ZAR 1 Million per year because of that...Maybe with new  better management things will turn...

 

Personally I took a severe mauling with the Nigerian fiasco... Once bitten twice shy...I was long..To answer your question NO I am out of it and hope the present longs dont get suckered if our market tanks...

[SouthAfricanMi.com]

IG homepage shows that MTN clients are 95% LONG i.e only 5% SHORT

 

Statistically if the majority are usually wrong and stubborn as mules to boot..

What do they know that makes them so optomistic about MTN...

 

Or is it so low and cheap from a history point of view that it can't go lower...

 

Good luck to them....

IMO they may need it....IMO

 

Based on your willingness to see it go lower can we assume you part of the 5% that is short 

 

MTN bond junk status is not the end of the world for them. They have capital too boot (granted some of it they struggling to repatriate to SA out of Nigera and Iran etc). But considering where they operate and the fine they got in Nigeria it is no surprise the ratings agencies started downgrading their credit rating.

 

Just remember these same agencies said sub prime debt was investment grade.. So take what they say with some amount of salt

[Halfday]

IG homepage shows that MTN clients are 95% LONG i.e only 5% SHORT

 

Statistically if the majority are usually wrong and stubborn as mules to boot..

What do they know that makes them so optomistic about MTN...

 

Or is it so low and cheap from a history point of view that it can't go lower...

 

Good luck to them....

IMO they may need it....IMO

[Halfday]

Its just more and more bad news with this company.....

+/- ZAR 115 today.....Junk bonds etc....New fines for USD 14 billions...

Maybe it will go to R80 or worse R50...

Would its market cap be too low to stay on TOP40,,,,

which would trigger more selling by the big fund managers....

 

Pain and disaster ahead 

 

Yes No maybe!!!

[Investment novice]

I dont recall MTN paying a JSE Fine after the Nigerian shananigans, there was talk of investigation once the Nigerian saga was settled but no news of that ....my majjor concern is that evidence of one vulgarity points to leadership integrity and potential fiduciary violations. I have an expectation that with further issues this share will be pummelled and potentially will be victim to a hostile takeover following that. I love the share and historical dividend, but in the next year ir so this share could go all the way to R50....some may say carry on smoking, but see what happens when the market smells blood...the last time JSE had to stop trading

[Halfday]

I remember Simon Brown hot tipping MTN in preference to Vodacom because of their diversified earnings from 80 countries.... Right before the share price took a severe haircut....

 

Yes... I wont forget that..... EVER.....

[Halfday]

What I heard ( Maybe from Simon Brown?) - but makes sense to me, it that Telcoms will eventually be priced as utilities - so good dividend payers, steady income, but not going to shoot the lights out and therefore a P/E of 10 or so. Sure, data using is going up, but prices are coming down . voice calls, their cash cows of note, of course are also falling rapidly. 

 

Management though, not only has been pathetic, they have actually rewarded it. I got out at R180 after taking a 25% hair cut. Left a bad feeling, so happy to trade it , but it won't be finding it's way into my LTP 

MTN on a 80P/E....even though their forward estimated P/E is about 10...

 

But now there is new news of the politicals going after the money they diverted to postbox companies MTN Dubai and MTN Mauritius from Nigeria...

 

.Oh my but it is a lot... What will the fine for that be!!!!

 

According to their  CFO, earnings are flat. yet their costs of buying new equipment to provide for all that extra Data have gone up 40%..Due to ZAR weakness,,,

 

IMO This is not going to get  suddenly better.. IMO

[MrDividend]

What I heard ( Maybe from Simon Brown?) - but makes sense to me, it that Telcoms will eventually be priced as utilities - so good dividend payers, steady income, but not going to shoot the lights out and therefore a P/E of 10 or so. Sure, data using is going up, but prices are coming down . voice calls, their cash cows of note, of course are also falling rapidly. 

 

Management though, not only has been pathetic, they have actually rewarded it. I got out at R180 after taking a 25% hair cut. Left a bad feeling, so happy to trade it , but it won't be finding it's way into my LTP 

[CrescoRSA]

So "The Capital Group Companies" now effectively own 5.13% of MTN. Thats worth about the size of the WHOLE Clicks (CLS) group

 

They clearly see value in MTN's current price.

 

http://www.southafri...-21sep2016.html

That's what I been scratching my head around - I have definitely added to my holding. As I am in it for the Long Term.
I know the Nigerian Fine, Oil Prices, and earnings have been a big factor. But this is old news, and price is now very low, and not quiet sure why we hanging around here. Fair value is around R150ish in my view

[SouthAfricanMi.com]

So "The Capital Group Companies" now effectively own 5.13% of MTN. Thats worth about the size of the WHOLE Clicks (CLS) group

 

They clearly see value in MTN's current price.

 

http://www.southafri...-21sep2016.html

[Investment novice]

I am concerned that this share may be an indicator of foreign sentiment in SA.

If post world cup Euphoria led to foreign investment- we should see at least continued withdrawal of funds from emerging economies. SA's risk profile is also to blame.

This share could easily be at 110 for the rest of the year and maintain 110 with rand depreciation...Good time to bye more now if youre in for the long hall as these shares are worth much more and at these levels- with further depreciation I could expect MTN to be a nice target by a chinese group....

 

 

[mx125]

I'm also dragging MTN along and must say I am quite irritated with it at present. It is slowly fading away although all the negativity regarding the fines, CEO's etc should be old news by now and the price should lift. Only thing I can blame on the poor performance at present is the volatility in the oil price.

 

Wish I knew where the price is heading to.......... 

[CrescoRSA]

Anyone see this as perfect bottom picking scenario, or is there further weakness in price? Want to add to my hold. But I'm not in the mood for this volatility - its getting real boring now haha

[julzmzn@gmail.com]

I see the share bounced on Friday though.Short term bounce?Heading back to retest the lows?

[Shi]

So, the courts didn't help in getting the Nigeria fine resolved ASAP. I suspect that the parties are going to be back in court in March.

[The Stig]

Well the CEO in Nigeria is gone so perhaps investors aren't liking that. IMO it could be PIC sending the price down, especially since they are pro Vodacom at the moment.