15225 replies to this topic

[Tom]

This article is full of false statements and contradictions:

https://www.business...g-the-culprits/

 

The South African courts' ruling is according to the South African Company's law, and that law is fair, right and makes sense. The law in other counties can be different but that doesn't make the South African law wrong.

 

The appeal made in 2018 in the African Bank case was rejected last week, and so Steinhoff share holders (including ex-shareholders and Wiese) can expect any appeal in South African courts they make to be rejected.

Edited by Tom, 11 July 2020 - 11:46 PM.

[Investment novice]

This is brilliant. Shareholders.. We can force a remuneration policy change and incentive payment in shares. Company forced to buy back shares. Managers will pump share price. And share price increases.

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[Zanme]

https://www.business...g-the-culprits/

[andi222]

Tom,

 

Clearstream Banking is just the Holder of all European shareholders. The only thing we can notice is that more and more shares are leaving SA and are held by European investors. 

 

This is why its super difficult to track who the real shareholders are of Steinhoff.

[Tom]

Now this information I got says:

 

CLEARSTREAM BANKING S.A LUXEMBOURG: Shares Held on 6/26/2020:    2,969,408,383    (during June it says they bought 50,424,282), so they have been slowly increasing their holding of Steinhoff shares.

 

If this information is true, then Steinhoff does have a majority share holder of about 70%, which is a good thing, instead of having no real major shareholder that can follow up on the company's best interest.

 

I'm not sure if this information is correct, because the number is too big.

Edited by Tom, 10 July 2020 - 04:50 PM.

[Investment novice]

I think it's a forced sale. Which is beneficial to share holder value even if the excess volume initially depresses the price. The reality is correction can be really steep.

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[andi222]

This makes absolutely no sense to me what Wiese is up to and doing.

 

End of 2017 he was forced to sell around 20% of his shareholding. Understandable 

In 2018 and 2019 he actually bought back some shares to increase his holdings at around 10 cents. 

 

Now he is selling the shares at 5 cents. I also cannot understand how this is not Insider trading.

With his claims he does have insider information and the only possible way why he has sold shares could be the following:

 

Pre-existing obligations Insider information: 

Persons in possession of inside information do not violate the prohibition on insider dealing if the disposal of financial instruments is carried out in the discharge of an obligation that has become due in good faith and that results either from an order placed or an agreement concluded before the insider came into possession of the information. An example is the forced sale of security because of antitrust concerns or because financial instruments were pledged as security. 

 

For me this sale smells like a forced sale and we will most probably never get the full picture. 

[Zanme]

Maybe they handing him Pepkor as he originally demanded. Totally beyond comprehension how he can make such claims when he should be liable for negligence.

[Tom]

Just a thought:

Wiese doesn't need the small money from selling SNH at 1 rand, so maybe he transferred his shares to the creditors that gave him the loans to buy it.

Edited by Tom, 10 July 2020 - 01:54 PM.

[Tom]

(My personal view): Wiese should have sold some of his shoprite shares to answer his margin calls on Steinhoff share price since Dec 2017, which would have avoided the SNH price collapse, and kept Wiese on top of the (very strong underlying business of Steinhoff)->(he used himself to claim that, but it looks like he wasn't really sure about what he was publicly saying).

Wiese could also have given Mattress firm a loan (about 200 million USD or less) which is a small amount of money to Wiese, and he can get it back with interest, which would have avoided Steinhoff the whole debacle.

 

The main losses were caused by Wiese's bad decisions especially in buying MF where Steinhoff lost billions of Euros (possibly more than 4 billion Euros of losses), (so not MJ that did some non-arm's length deals where maybe he might have overcharged Steinhoff on these deals).

[Tom]

"

It seems the 2015 purchase of 314 million Steinhoff NV shares, which was done in Upington’s name, relied heavily on bank loans and that Conservatorium has emerged as the ‘owner’ of some of an undisclosed portion of those loans.

 

According to note 22.3: “During July 2019, Conservatorium Holdings LLC, the legal successor in title to Upington’s lenders was granted leave, through Dutch legal proceedings to levy a pre-judgement attachment on Upington’s claims against Steinhoff NV and SIHL. As such in March 2020 Conservatorium initiated intervention proceedings in the High Court of South Africa for Conservatorium and Upington to be named as plaintiffs in the proceedings.”

 

This latest revelation might add to concerns about pressure on Wiese to liquidate part of his substantial investment in Shoprite, where he is the second largest shareholder with a 10.7% stake.

"

[Tom]

At the same time:

CLEARSTREAM BANKING S.A LUXEMBOURG increased shares by 50,424,282  to  2,969,408,383  (during of June-2020).

JPMC-VANGUARD BBH LENDING ACCOUNT   increased shares by 50,491,748  to       53,569,478 (during of June-2020).

[Burnt as well]

So Wiese's shareholding through Titan has just dropped below 3% to only 2.6% of SNH... Looks like his getting rid of his shares.

What could be the reason for selling the shares?

[Burnt as well]

The required reporting is needed on different stages of substantial shareholding. This announcement as far as I understand it is to announce that Tiatan's sharholding dropped below 3% to 2.26%. End of June Titan still held 119,605,660 shares. This now dropped....

Apologies you right, I misread the notification. The current shareholding now is at 2.26%

[Polla]

https://www.marketsc...G-the-30905970/

Notification of Wiese selling shares held in Titan (from 2.26% to zero)

The required reporting is needed on different stages of substantial shareholding.  This announcement as far as I understand it is to announce that Tiatan's sharholding dropped below 3% to 2.26%. End of June Titan still held 119,605,660 shares. This now dropped....

[Polla]

So Wiese's shareholding through Titan has just dropped below 3% to only 2.6% of SNH... Looks like his getting rid of his shares.

[Burnt as well]

https://www.marketsc...G-the-30905970/

Notification of Wiese selling shares held in Titan (from 2.26% to zero)

Maybe condition related to settlement as he has insider info

[Burnt as well]

https://www.marketsc...G-the-30905970/

Notification of Wiese selling shares held in Titan (from 2.26% to zero)

[Zanme]

Hi Andi how do you arrive at the 6.1 billion net debt number?

[andi222]

So realistically... Litigation victory in Sa
.... Conforama disposal...... Reduction in debt......... And positive cash flow......... Andi cummon... Whats your new valuation......

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Hi IN, I have posted this in August 2019: I still believe management is on track to achieve this. I have updated in blue where we stand today:

 

So I personally think the following will happen until the end of 2021:

Net debt lies at 9,1 Billion @ 10% p.a. for 3 years we will sit at around 11.5 Billion debt at the end of Dec 2021.This is still the case, luckily they can repay some of it earlier so might only be 11.3 Billion € in total.

I think selling Unitrans will bring 500 Million. We now know they have obtained around 350 Million €

Selling the Hemisphere properties another 800 Million - We know part of this was sold for around 300 Million €. The rest is still outstanding

EBITDA from the operating entities for 3 years: 2,5 Billion (Assuming they keep 71% of Pepkor Europe) - EBITDA in 2019 was 877 Million. Here we are above my expectations. Corona might have a negative impact here tho for 2020.

Selling Greenlit 500 Million - Sold the loss making part for around 25 Million, IPO of the rest of around 1 Billion $ was on the cards. So 0.5 billion still is reasonable to me.

IPO Pepkor Europe and sell 29% will bring 1,2 Billion - Given that we are in 2020 now I think selling 29% in an IPO might even generate 1.5 billion now.

Other- Can't give an exact number but might bring some Euros. - 9 Million Benson and beds, Sherwood 50 Million

 

So taking all these steps Steinhoff would sit at 6 Billion debt by the end of 2021. Which would be refinanced by way better terms given the SUM of Parts value.

Given the new information as of today I would say the net debt will lie at 6.15 Billion €. I would also add the legal fees to this of around 350 Million to come. So net debt is expected to be at 6.5 Billion €

 

Now to refinance this we need a strong asset base and a strong operating performance of businesses.

By 2021 I would think that the businesses have the following Value: 

Pepkor EU: 3,2 Billion (71%) - Given the strong growth and expansion I see the 71% now at 3.8 Billion € by the end of 2021

STAR: 4 Billion (71%) - Remains the same - Now we only own 68%

Confo: 1 Billion (45%) - Biggest blood bath here. So here I want to give it a vlaue of around 0.5 Billion for the rest outside France incl properties

Mattress: 1.1 Billion (45%) - Very strong recovery here- Would keep current estimates

Greenlit brands: 50% - 0.3 Billion € Given an IPO of the business

Total SUM-PARTS VALUE of Steinhoff holdings = 9,3 Billion. Total SUM-PARTS value would lie at 9.7 Billion €.

 

So at the end of 2021 they would have a serious good asset base to get cheaper loans. This is still the case 

 

Biggest Issue are the legal claims which are the main focus now from management so hopefully we won'T see too many settlements and if there are settlements that these are shared between auditors banks etc. I think a global settlement will come in at 0.5 to 1 billion € max. Even then there is still value left in the company. 

 

Again this is just my personal view and no recommendation to buy or sell.