Andy, your wisdom please.
Lets assume they settle 20% of the claimed value.
Sell Pepco in full for 4.5 Bil EUR.
Settle the debt with the Pepco money and what else they sold.
What is the NAV?
Hi Bubble, I still hope that Pepco is not sold as a whole group. I rather hope that all this hype regarding the bids and price etc will help at the IPO of Pepco Group. I mean they have done so much in the background to prepare for a listing why now sell the whole group?
Yes it would be beneficial to get the 4.5 Billion euro now but that wouldn't help Steinhoff at all. They would be sitting on a huge cash balance until end of Dec 2021 when they are allowed to repay the debt. I thus hope they IPO around 25-30% now and if they really need cash they could raise this by an accelerated book build closer to the Dec 2021 by selling off more.
As seen with Pepkor dividends they do not want more cash at the moment, thus they have opted for the scrip dividends. I think that they will sell off these additional scrip dividends shares closer to the end of 2021.
I have posted my prediction back in August with the possible NAV for Jan 2022:
I think management is following this plan. I wrote this up beginning of August last year. I now added in blue what happened so far:
"So I personally think the following will happen until the end of 2021:
Net debt lies at 9,1 Billion @ 10% p.a. for 3 years we will sit at around 11.5 Billion debt at the end of Dez 2021. No change yet
I think selling Unitrans will bring 500 Million - Unitrans sold - Proceeds not released yet
Selling the Hemisphere properties another 800 Million - Can't find much info on this. However I think they where sold
EBITDA from the operating entities for 3 years: 2,5 Billion (Assuming they keep 71% of Pepkor Europe) - 2019 to be release soon (However expecting about 900 Million EBITDA excl. MF). This might even be higher
Selling Greenlit 500 Million - Half of Greenlit sold, I'm expecting an announcement soon that other half will be sold off as well. Proceeds not yet released - Possible IPO of remaining unit - 1 Billion Dollar was mentioned in an article
IPO Pepkor Europe and sell 29% will bring 1,2 Billion - This will happen at the end of this year, hope they will not IPO more then 29%. Now IPO of 29% would lead to 1.4 Billion €
Other- Can't give an exact number but might bring some Euros. Smaller sales where made, however I have no amounts
So taking all these steps Steinhoff would sit at 6 Billion debt by the end of 2021. Which would be refinanced by way better terms given the SUM of Parts value. I still think that 6 Billion debt is sustainable for Steinhoff in the long run at reasonable interest rates
By 2021 I would think that the businesses have the following Value: (Valuation is based on different EBITDA multiples)
Pepkor EU: 3,2 Billion (71%) I see this at 4 Billion now already
STAR: 4 Billion (71%)
Confo: 1 Billion (45%)
Mattress: 1.1 Billion (45%)
Greenlit : IPO of 0,7 Billion possible?
Total SUM-PARTS VALUE of Steinhoff holdings = 9,3 Billion. I still see this as reasonable for the end of 2021. Given the new information I would see this at 10.8 Billion €
So at the end of 2021 they would have a serious good asset base to get cheaper loans.
Biggest Issue are the legal claims which are the main focus now from management so hopefully we won'T see too many settlements and if there are settlements that these are shared between auditors banks etc.
Here I hope a solution will be found in due course. Hopefully the white knight refers to a thrid party which will also be liable to settle any claims. (Banks, auditors, advisers etc.) I still do believe tho that the total claim will lie around 0.5 and 1 Billion € for Steinhoff.
Even though we haven't heard anything new since November 2019 from management. One can see there is substantial progress being made at all levels.
The above is just my opinion and no recommendation to buy or sell Steinhoff shares.
That is my latest opinion on Steinhoff.
Edited by andi222, 06 February 2020 - 11:44 AM.
