15225 replies to this topic

[andi222]

https://www.sharenet...00&seq=2&scode=

 

Very good credit rating for Pepkor SA. This will impact Steinhoff's credit rating going forward. Very good news.

[MrGermanGuy]

Andy,

Sounds not too unrealistic,

next months will lead the way with the legal deal.....

 

 

I think management is following this plan. I wrote this up beginning of August last year. I now added in blue what happened so far:

 

"So I personally think the following will happen until the end of 2021:

Net debt lies at 9,1 Billion @ 10% p.a. for 3 years we will sit at around 11.5 Billion debt at the end of Dez 2021. No change yet

I think selling Unitrans will bring 500 Million - Unitrans sold - Proceeds not released yet

Selling the Hemisphere properties another 800 Million - Can't find much info on this. However I think they where sold

EBITDA from the operating entities for 3 years: 2,5 Billion (Assuming they keep 71% of Pepkor Europe) - 2019 to be release soon (However expecting about 900 Million EBITDA excl. MF). On track with this

Selling Greenlit 500 Million - Half of Greenlit sold, I'm expecting an announcement soon that other half will be sold off as well. Proceeds not yet released

IPO Pepkor Europe and sell 29% will bring 1,2 Billion - This will happen at the end of this year, hope they will not IPO more then 29%

Other- Can't give an exact number but might bring some Euros. Smaller sales where made, however I have no amounts

 

So taking all these steps Steinhoff would sit at 6 Billion debt by the end of 2021. Which would be refinanced by way better terms given the SUM of Parts value. I still think that 6 Billion debt is sustainable for Steinhoff in the long run at reasonable interest rates

 

By 2021 I would think that the businesses have the following Value: (Valuation is based on different EBITDA multiples)

Pepkor EU: 3,2 Billion (71%) 

STAR: 4 Billion (71%) 

Confo: 1 Billion (45%)

Mattress: 1.1 Billion (45%)

Total SUM-PARTS VALUE of Steinhoff holdings = 9,3 Billion. I still see this as reasonable for the end of 2021.

 

So at the end of 2021 they would have a serious good asset base to get cheaper loans. 

 

Biggest Issue are the legal claims which are the main focus now from management so hopefully we won'T see too many settlements and if there are settlements that these are shared between auditors banks etc. 

Here I hope a solution will be found in due course. Hopefully the white knight refers to a thrid party which will also be liable to settle any claims. (Banks, auditors, advisers etc.) I still do believe tho that the total claim will lie around 0.5 and 1 Billion € for Steinhoff.

 

Even though we haven't heard anything new since November 2019 from management. One can see there is substantial progress being made at all levels. 

The above is just my opinion and no recommendation to buy or sell Steinhoff shares.

 

[andi222]

https://www.sharenet...24140000&seq=32

 

Strong results from Pepkor SA. PLUS 7.6% in Q1 Revenue

 

Fintech division has reported a 44.4% increase.

[andi222]

I think management is following this plan. I wrote this up beginning of August last year. I now added in blue what happened so far:

 

"So I personally think the following will happen until the end of 2021:

Net debt lies at 9,1 Billion @ 10% p.a. for 3 years we will sit at around 11.5 Billion debt at the end of Dez 2021. No change yet

I think selling Unitrans will bring 500 Million - Unitrans sold - Proceeds not released yet

Selling the Hemisphere properties another 800 Million - Can't find much info on this. However I think they where sold

EBITDA from the operating entities for 3 years: 2,5 Billion (Assuming they keep 71% of Pepkor Europe) - 2019 to be release soon (However expecting about 900 Million EBITDA excl. MF). On track with this

Selling Greenlit 500 Million - Half of Greenlit sold, I'm expecting an announcement soon that other half will be sold off as well. Proceeds not yet released

IPO Pepkor Europe and sell 29% will bring 1,2 Billion - This will happen at the end of this year, hope they will not IPO more then 29%

Other- Can't give an exact number but might bring some Euros. Smaller sales where made, however I have no amounts

 

So taking all these steps Steinhoff would sit at 6 Billion debt by the end of 2021. Which would be refinanced by way better terms given the SUM of Parts value. I still think that 6 Billion debt is sustainable for Steinhoff in the long run at reasonable interest rates

 

By 2021 I would think that the businesses have the following Value: (Valuation is based on different EBITDA multiples)

Pepkor EU: 3,2 Billion (71%) 

STAR: 4 Billion (71%) 

Confo: 1 Billion (45%)

Mattress: 1.1 Billion (45%)

Total SUM-PARTS VALUE of Steinhoff holdings = 9,3 Billion. I still see this as reasonable for the end of 2021.

 

So at the end of 2021 they would have a serious good asset base to get cheaper loans. 

 

Biggest Issue are the legal claims which are the main focus now from management so hopefully we won'T see too many settlements and if there are settlements that these are shared between auditors banks etc. 

Here I hope a solution will be found in due course. Hopefully the white knight refers to a thrid party which will also be liable to settle any claims. (Banks, auditors, advisers etc.) I still do believe tho that the total claim will lie around 0.5 and 1 Billion € for Steinhoff.

 

Even though we haven't heard anything new since November 2019 from management. One can see there is substantial progress being made at all levels. 

The above is just my opinion and no recommendation to buy or sell Steinhoff shares.

[DayTraderDad]

Hope you right - I have been holding on for ages

 

Its all about time now. There is a great team steering the ship now into calmer waters.

[Motivated]

Hi Captain,

 

Haha yes indeed it was excellent vision we had that´s the difference between investing and betting.

 

Investing is having the ability to ignore noise and focus on future potential. I still maintain SNH is a R20 to R30 share in time.

 

It is nearly done now just waiting for dividends.

 

Regards,

DTD

Hope you right - I have been holding on for ages

[Captainfrom82]

I have been asked to post something on this forum to confirm that the Captainfrom82 who is on the Ariva.de (German forum) is indeed me.

 

I hope this satisfies your request.

 

Thank you for formalising the request, SealChen.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

Thank you for this Mr GermanGuy,

 

It certainly looks like the tide has turned.  Marshall Wace as well as Landsdowne Partners are significant players in the short sellers  market.  It is extremely interesting to see that they have exited their short positions based on the risk they perceive. 

 

DTD, you must be pleased.  All going to plan mate! 

 

Do you recall us discussing almost to the letter, the successful completion of the CVA, quick unbundling and sale of some assets, the turn around of Mattress Firm, the sale of the the Aussie unit, IPO of PepCo.  We were correct of every single one.  (We spoke of the PepCo IPO in Dec 2018).

 

Still to be done:

1. the litigation settlement,

2. unbundling and hopefully sale of Conforama

3. Reduction in debt (quite possibly through a share issue - I have mixed feelings about this but will wait for the full details)

 

 

Whoever is going to be foolish enough to bet against this monster Steinhoff management team, does so at their own risk!

 

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

 

Hi Captain,

 

Haha yes indeed it was excellent vision we had that´s the difference between investing and betting.

 

Investing is having the ability to ignore noise and focus on future potential. I still maintain SNH is a R20 to R30 share in time.

 

It is nearly done now just waiting for dividends.

 

Regards,

DTD

[Captainfrom82]

http://shortsell.nl/...fInternatio/all

europe has no shorts involved anymore, too risky if the game of the management plays out this year....

Thank you for this Mr GermanGuy,

 

It certainly looks like the tide has turned.  Marshall Wace as well as Landsdowne Partners are significant players in the short sellers  market.  It is extremely interesting to see that they have exited their short positions based on the risk they perceive. 

 

DTD, you must be pleased.  All going to plan mate! 

 

Do you recall us discussing almost to the letter, the successful completion of the CVA, quick unbundling and sale of some assets, the turn around of Mattress Firm, the sale of the the Aussie unit, IPO of PepCo.  We were correct of every single one.  (We spoke of the PepCo IPO in Dec 2018).

 

Still to be done:

1. the litigation settlement,

2. unbundling and hopefully sale of Conforama

3. Reduction in debt (quite possibly through a share issue - I have mixed feelings about this but will wait for the full details)

 

 

Whoever is going to be foolish enough to bet against this monster Steinhoff management team, does so at their own risk!

 

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

[MrGermanGuy]

http://shortsell.nl/...fInternatio/all

europe has no shorts involved anymore, too risky if the game of the management plays out this year....

 

 

[Investment novice]

The sales figure qouted below are new since the 2019 agreement. What we not certain of is the profit margin and imPact on other bed lines.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Investment novice]

The sales figure qouted below are new since the 2019 agreement. What we not certain of is the profit margin and imPact on other bed lines.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[LarryK]

IN do you know how this compares to sales ST previous year?

Tempur Sealy sales to Mattress Firm of $80 million-plus in the fourth quarter.....

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Investment novice]

 Tempur Sealy sales to Mattress Firm of $80 million-plus in the fourth quarter.....

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Investment novice]

It sadly looks like everyone has lost interest...

Not really, no significant news to report on. Its a waiting game....

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[LarryK]

It sadly looks like everyone has lost interest...

[Tom]

Steinhoff accounting scandal In the model proceedings pursuant to the German Capital Investor Model Proceedings Act (KapMuG) against Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. (“Steinhoff”) (file no. 23 Kap 1/19), the Higher Regional Court of Frankfurt determined the model plaintiff by order of 30 July 2019 and scheduled a hearing for 18 December 2019. Investors must file their claims within six months to participate in the KapMuG proceedings. The KapMuG proceedings shall determine whether Steinhoff is liable to pay damages to investors due to violation of ad hoc obligations. The claimants accuse Steinhoff of having failed to inform the capital markets about balance sheet manipulations amounting to several billion euros (In 2015 and 2016 Steinhoff declared 34.5 and 32.5 billion Euros of assets, but eventually admitted it was fraudulent, and declared 15 billion Euros of assets, however the actual number is much less). Further proceedings are pending in South Africa and the Netherlands. In South Africa, a class action suit is pending before the High Court in Johannesburg against Steinhoff, which is also directed against banks and auditors. In the Netherlands, a declaratory action by a shareholders’ association is pending.

[andi222]

IPO

coming

https://search.gleif...0DT5XZRFXCVM779

 

Thanks for the link. This shows again that management has planned this in detail and no fire sales have been made up to today. I hope only 25% will be sold via an IPO. 

[MrGermanGuy]

IPO

coming

https://search.gleif...0DT5XZRFXCVM779

[Milo]

Good time to buy Steinhoff shares now? Have been flat line for a long time on 80 bouncing off it