15225 replies to this topic

[Captainfrom82]

Hi Captain,

=====

What I was trying to say is if they don't announce before the open that approval was receive or if not received what is the reason I am
expecting the share price again to fall due to the numerous articles that will be published with all kinds of speculation.

My concern (I cannot say what Andi thinking) is that until SNH have finalised the CVA it is high risk because if not implemented then
for sure its goodbye going concern. For me this is the single worry about SNH.

I am not worried about the monthly progress report because for me it is good information but by the time we get it is old news.

======

Regards,
DTD

 

No bro, I am sorry,  I may have come across more harshly than I realised.  Maybe I was not more clear.  Lets try again.

 

I hear you about the CVA4 update.  However, please understand that Steinhoff has this entire week (the first week of July) as per their own communication to finalise the signature for CVA4.  According to documentation relating to CVA4 Steinhoff's plans was to finalise creditor approval by the "by early July 2019".  They go on to specify that by "early July 2019" they actually mean the first week .

 

The process is as follows------->

1. First the Implementation Conditions Notice.

2. A period of 20 working days to work on the procedural side

3. Restructuring Effective Date hopefully by end July

 

They are mindful that the steps required to implement the intra-group reorganisation may require an additional short period.  So they get to 9 Aug 2019.

 

My point  bro, was two fold.  Firstly, that Steinhoff have this entire week in which to finalise the Implementation Conditions Notice.  So if you want to panic, after close of business on Friday 5 July 2019 would be an appropriate time.

 

Secondly, even if they miss the targets, don't panic about the short term price movements.  I know that it is difficult for some when you see the share price react negatively. 

 

I am going to be nailed for posting this next paragraph (especially by You-know-who and his stooges), but here goes...

 

Remember, there is no real or tangible relationship at this moment between the company value and the share price.  At the best of times, Share price is just some arbitrary number that a buyer and seller agree to exchange for a merx.  For example, you could sell work of art, or a car for vastly different prices depending on a number of circumstances; eg perception of "value", the degree of how keen the seller is to sell and what is his financial situation, how desperate is the buyer and what is the buyer's financial situation, is there a real value or is the value determined by a love for something eg a work of art, etc.

 

It is probably a lot easier for someone like me who is a deep value investor who pays no attention whatsoever to the traders.  I am extremely skeptical about trading, and I cannot believe that anyone would be able to predict a future share price based on historical trading patterns and volumes.  No offense to any of you guys who do follow technical analysis.

 

Keep the faith bro.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[andi222]

Hi Captain, 

 

thank you for the clarification. I'm not too concerned, however it is a bit worrisome that no news has been published yet whether the creditors have agreed to extend. 

 

The letter published on lucid regarding the payment of 50 bps to creditors if another extension is required looks like a cry for help. 

 

I did my homework regarding Steinhoff before I invested, however the CVA is the only factor that can still bring down Steinhoff in the short term. So I want this point to be settled and implemented.

 

Let's just hope there will be a SENS this week with an update.

[DayTraderDad]

DTD, Your date quoted is misleading.
 
Clause 20 (e) of the Lock Up Agreement states:
"The Company shall make monthly public announcements regarding the progress of
the Financial Restructuring (and shall consult with the Participants’ Advisors to agree
the form of such announcements), and the first such announcement shall be made
on or around the day that is one calendar month from the day that the Effective Time
occurs".
 
The date of the above LUA is 11 July 2018 and it became effective 20 July. 
 
The SENS for these updates are "UPDATE ON PROGRESS OF FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING" (UOPOFR).  This must not be confused with a SENS titled "Financial Restructuring".  Steinhoff may from time to time provide both updates in the same month, sometimes days apart (see 30 and 31 May for example).
 
 
Steinhoff provided Update on Financial Restructuring on the following dates - Note some months no updates provided:
- various updates in July and early Aug culminating in a month UOPOFR update on 17 Aug (being the first monthly update).
- No UOPOFR provided in Sept 18
- UOPOFR on 19 Oct.
- No update UOPOFR  but updates provided in 19 Nov 18 and 20 Nov 2018 SENS dealing with Financial Restructuring  and "Catching up with a substantial holdings notification" respectively.
- UOPOFR Update provided 21 Dec 2018
- UOPOFR Update provided 2 Jan 2019
- No update provided in Feb 19
- UOPOFR Update provided 29 Mar 2019
- UOPOFR Update provided 29 Apr 2019
- UOPOFR Update provided 31 May 2019
 
Three times over the past 11 Months Steinhoff have not provided an UPDATE ON PROGRESS OF FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING.  I don't recall you expressing fear and concern then.
 
Why so antsy suddenly?  Got to say that I am perplexed at your and Andi222's concerns, especially where you are using the last month as a point of reference.
 
Relax mate!  Steinhoff have got this.  Don't fret on short term price movements.  You are playing right into the hands of the evil empire.  Beware The Dark Side.  Corrupt You It Will.
 
Best Regards
Captainfrom82

Hi Captain,

Very sorry maybe I did not explain properly and created confusion but thank you for the explanation.

I was referring to the announcement about approval of Consent Request no.4 and not to the monthly update.

If you recall there was two extension for the Consent no.3 and the the extension No.2 which was issued on the 29th May was for the
CVA Consent Request No.3 deadline of 30th May 5 pm London time. On the 30th at 1710h SNH issued a SENS stating approval was received.

Quote from the email sent which is in Lucid:

"Extension to Consent Instruction Deadline
4. SEAG and SFHG give notice that the Consent Instruction Deadline in relation to CVA Consent
Request No. 3 is extended to 5.00pm (London time) on Thursday 30 May 2019. "

What I was trying to say is if they don't announce before the open that approval was receive or if not received what is the reason I am
expecting the share price again to fall due to the numerous articles that will be published with all kinds of speculation.

My concern (I cannot say what Andi thinking) is that until SNH have finalised the CVA it is high risk because if not implemented then
for sure its goodbye going concern. For me this is the single worry about SNH.

I am not worried about the monthly progress report because for me it is good information but by the time we get it is old news.

Thanks for your assurance and I also agree this is done creditor getting a good deal and if they refuse approval they will get very little

but its the bad sentiment that keeps on hanging over the share. SNH need to communicate to the market more to avoid speculation because

management is really doing great work but if it is not communicated a good opportunity to turn sentiment goes to waist.

I remain bullish on SNH and expecting this week a trading statement which will have a nice run upwards it is my opinion and again I am

not trying to defraud anyone or lying to get people to buy SNH shares.


Regards,
DTD

Edited by DayTraderDad, 30 June 2019 - 08:08 PM.

[Captainfrom82]

If we look with consent No.3 the deadline was 30th pm and the SENS came out on 30th 17:10.

So one needs to ask why nothing this time?

I agree with Andi222 it means no good news for the share price unless they can put out a SENS before open.

Either way its poor communication because they simply leaving all the media which is already negative with more ammunition.

It is well stated its very complex the process but surely a simple informative message cannot be that difficult!!

 

DTD, Your date quoted is misleading.

 

Clause 20 (e) of the Lock Up Agreement states:

"The Company shall make monthly public announcements regarding the progress of
the Financial Restructuring (and shall consult with the Participants’ Advisors to agree
the form of such announcements), and the first such announcement shall be made
on or around the day that is one calendar month from the day that the Effective Time
occurs".

 

The date of the above LUA is 11 July 2018 and it became effective 20 July. 

 

The SENS for these updates are "UPDATE ON PROGRESS OF FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING" (UOPOFR).  This must not be confused with a SENS titled "Financial Restructuring".  Steinhoff may from time to time provide both updates in the same month, sometimes days apart (see 30 and 31 May for example).

 

 

Steinhoff provided Update on Financial Restructuring on the following dates - Note some months no updates provided:

- various updates in July and early Aug culminating in a month UOPOFR update on 17 Aug (being the first monthly update).

- No UOPOFR provided in Sept 18

- UOPOFR on 19 Oct.

- No update UOPOFR  but updates provided in 19 Nov 18 and 20 Nov 2018 SENS dealing with Financial Restructuring  and "Catching up with a substantial holdings notification" respectively.

- UOPOFR Update provided 21 Dec 2018

- UOPOFR Update provided 2 Jan 2019

- No update provided in Feb 19

- UOPOFR Update provided 29 Mar 2019

- UOPOFR Update provided 29 Apr 2019

- UOPOFR Update provided 31 May 2019

 

Three times over the past 11 Months Steinhoff have not provided an UPDATE ON PROGRESS OF FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING.  I don't recall you expressing fear and concern then.

 

Why so antsy suddenly?  Got to say that I am perplexed at your and Andi222's concerns, especially where you are using the last month as a point of reference.

 

Relax mate!  Steinhoff have got this.  Don't fret on short term price movements.  You are playing right into the hands of the evil empire.  Beware The Dark Side.  Corrupt You It Will.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

SHOWROOMPRIVE share price:

https://www.euronext...0013006558-XPAR

[DayTraderDad]

So for those that either refuse to understand the Pepkor Europe story or just don't know below some good articles.

If one really want to be educated there is lots of articles about it so don't get mislead by people putting
vague information with little knowledge and speculation. There are sufficient hard facts and figures available.
Further to note the GDP growth in Eastern Europe in particular is above 2% in Euro terms there is no comparison to SA
where SOE debt is simply piling up and people with no cash.

It is important to understand the business model of Pepkor Europe and how Europeans think.

Quote from the article below:

"She also said that even weaker consumer confidence in the UK should “play to Poundland’s strengths, as it stands to
benefit from consumers trading down.”

So do your own sums I am definitely not trying to defraud anyone and trying to get anyone to buy into SNH simply putting
down facts.

Articles:

Fashion boosts Poundland as Pepkor Europe sales rise in Q1

https://uk.fashionne...ml#.XRc_JXXwaIZ

Highlight:
"Overall company sales rose 14.6% to £852.2 million but that divided down into very different performances from its UK and
mainland Europe operations. It owns PepCo in Europe and the brand’s sales soared nearly 37% to €477 million, partly helped
by a 20%+ rise in store numbers during its fiscal first quarter (it now has almost 1,600 locations).
The smaller European Dealz chain also “continued to develop very positively”.

https://www.laproven...ais-arrive.html

Highlight:
"On the other side of the Channel, discount brands that offer round-priced products are legion. This is what the English
call pound stores , where almost everything is sold at "1 pound" (about € 1.50). And, unlike traditional hard discount,
these store chains do not hesitate to offer a wide range of products of major brands. Thus, it is not uncommon to find
groceries, beauty or decoration and textiles at less than two euros.

Attractive for the customer who has the feeling of doing good business, these concepts continue to expand and began to
invest the French territory. This is the case of the Dealz brand. A subsidiary of the Poundland group, which has more than
a thousand stores worldwide, Dealz arrived in France last year with the transformation of five stores of the MacDan fleet
in the south of France. The brand was established in Béziers, initially, then in Saint-Victoret, in June 2017 where is
located the national headquarters, directed by Alexander Morrison, before extending to the side of the var.
" Saint-Victoret is our backship,says Caroline Denninger, the group's marketing director. After one year of exercise,
the brand has gained customer loyalty, especially as it is difficult to resist these products at broken prices.
"The idea is to offer 80% of our offer at a single price € 1.50 is a sum that is easy to remember for the consumer and
that concerns 3,500 references in stock, some of which are specially manufactured and packaged for our sign. "

[DayTraderDad]

Well done SNH Management:

If we recall in Jan 2018 SNH sold the 17% shareholding in SHOWROOMPRIVE for E13.50 per share.

Well they just came in with a bad trading statement and SHOWROOMPRIVE share price is trading at E1.374


https://uk.fashionne...ml#.XRc-vHXwaIZ

Highlight:
"ShowroomPrivé has issued a profit warning. On the evening of June 26, the French event sales website announced it will
not be able to reach the profit level forecast this year as part of its Performance 2018-2020 plan.
ShowroomPrivé warned that EBIDTA in H1 will be negative, ranging between -€12 million and -€15 million.
The group is however optimistic about H2, as its business is usually more buoyant in the second part of the year."

[DayTraderDad]

If we look with consent No.3 the deadline was 30th pm and the SENS came out on 30th 17:10.

So one needs to ask why nothing this time?

I agree with Andi222 it means no good news for the share price unless they can put out a SENS before open.

Either way its poor communication because they simply leaving all the media which is already negative with more ammunition.

It is well stated its very complex the process but surely a simple informative message cannot be that difficult!!

[Captainfrom82]

So no news yesterday. Which is not a good sign.

On lucid they uploaded a document/letter where they state that if they would defer it again beyond 9 August they will pay 50 basis points as a fee. 40 Million euro. So Im pretty sure this is the last extension.

I have a feeling that the creditors are getting nervous and irritated by the extensions.

I just hope they got the approval. If not we have a serious problem and it might bring down Steinhoff.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

 

The creditors cannot be getting irritated by the delays.  They are the biggest reason for the delays with the amendments that they required having to be signed off.

 

The reason for the delay is due to the complexity and it is procedural rather than substantive.  This is from the horses mouth.

 

They also are not obliged to announce anything with regards to the status of the CVA and creditor take-up between the  month-end updates (which in itself was part of their agreement with the creditors).

 

Don't panic for no reason.  There are lots of other matters to justifiably worry about,.

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

[Investment novice]

Nothing to panic about...

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[andi222]

So no news yesterday. Which is not a good sign.

On lucid they uploaded a document/letter where they state that if they would defer it again beyond 9 August they will pay 50 basis points as a fee. 40 Million euro. So Im pretty sure this is the last extension.

I have a feeling that the creditors are getting nervous and irritated by the extensions.

I just hope they got the approval. If not we have a serious problem and it might bring down Steinhoff.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[DayTraderDad]

Well that's a interesting way of looking maybe that is why CW wants to be also viewed as creditor.

No problem I will sell my shares for R8!!

Sorry and Group 5. Hahaha

[DayTraderDad]

I think the creditors must buy out the shares, delist , and then refinance and relist

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Well that's a interesting way of looking maybe that is why CW wants to be also viewed as creditor.

No problem I will sell my shares for R8!!

[DayTraderDad]

It was important that Steinhoff didn't fall below 7 cents this week. Means we have a strong base at around 7 cents which has been tested numerous times. I think we will see a nice run up to the HJ 1 figures as Steinhoff might be turning to a profit again.

well one hour to go before deadline fingers crossed!!!

[Investment novice]

I think the creditors must buy out the shares, delist , and then refinance and relist

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[DayTraderDad]

Hi DTD,
 
yeah I think pro and cons are important to see the full picture of a share/company. So I welcome cons if they are factual.

Andi I totally agree there must be positives and negatives and very important to take note and have a clear mind but if a person only sees negative
how real effective is those thoughts!

Just take time analysing each comment that Polly placed and your response to see where is the realistic view.

Lets take No.1 - Chasing turnover does not mean bigger profits - Sure PEPCO growing at 27% in a period where many other retailers are facing
closure and difficult times. Again a failure to understand the business model of PEPCO. People in Europe love these shops.
Look what Midas1 said the people queue to get to the shop in the UK!!

Take for example point 3 a clear lack of understanding that in EU there are no boarders so just need to find a place to set up the store and open it!!

You see for me all that waffle had no content of importance but you replied very well putting a good perspective.

Can you find anything positive in that waffle? It is impossible that in SNH there is only negative and everything they do is bad.

[Milo]

There may bean opportuniyy for a pepkor usa??

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Usa already has their discount stores like Dollar General = (Poundland/Dealz combined with Pep&Co). There is basically a DG store in every town in America. Over 15000 of them. Very popular. Good growth opportunity in rest of Europe possible.

[andi222]

It was important that Steinhoff didn't fall below 7 cents this week. Means we have a strong base at around 7 cents which has been tested numerous times. I think we will see a nice run up to the HJ 1 figures as Steinhoff might be turning to a profit again. 

 

 

[andi222]

Andi do you honestly think it is any use even listen to that. If one has a hate for a share does not mater what is said there will always be a negative.

I don't even read anything more that Polly the Troll writes it has its own agenda!!!

 

Hi DTD,

 

yeah I think pro and cons are important to see the full picture of a share/company. So I welcome cons if they are factual. 

[DayTraderDad]

Some alternative points by Polly:
"Some alternative views :
 
1. All the talk of Pepco or Milo whatever etc...Increasing stores does not mean higher bottom line.  Chasing turnover does not mean bigger profits
In todays recessionary times most of the established retailers throughout the world are restructuring , closing down stores retrenching staff , moving from high rental areas to cheaper rentals etc. Opening in HIGH Street means astronomical rentals to be paid.  Not a very clever idea especially when you work on a small markup targeting budget lines and customers.
 
I disagree here Polly, in the news article they mention that like for like sales have increased by 7%. So financially it does make sense to open new stores. With the new stores they have managed to up their revenue with 14%. For european standards thats an exceptionally strong increase which shows that the business is performing well. 
 
2. Talk in PS thread of Pepkor USA and Europe.. ok Europe is on the road and expanding but see 1 above. Now has the South African retail model ever worked elsewhere in the world for any  of our retailers? Ever? Show me one successful one? Just one... More hope i say.
 
Pepkor USA was an idea put out not a fact that Steinhoff will ever do this. 
 
3. One post " The reason I am invested in SNH is for the Pepkor Europe there are 500 mil people in the EU 10 times more than in SA
so Pepkor Europe will become much bigger than Pepkor SA!" So if Shoprite goes to India or China where their population is 500 times more than South Africa will you invest in Shoprite on that basis?  Why is Shoprite not going that route?
 
Good point by Polly, however you have forgotten to mention that the crux of expanding into a new country is to get passed government to get the licenses etc. Pepkor Europe is established in this market and thus a a way bigger customer base in Europe then in SA. So it is a valid point to say that europe has more potential customers. 
 
4. and i love the "Cleanest AFS" and " one of the Strongest retailers in the Worls" part.....More hope or a non event? or fact or fiction?  getting carried away boys  TOTALLY!!!"
 
Well this will be a discussion point as it cannot be proved who has the cleanest AFS, however you can be sure that Steinhoff AFS are double checked by everyone lol. (Hawks, Auditors, Advisors, Investors etc)
 
Thank you Polly for the Tekki Town article. Interesting tho that they are only talking about the legal costs which need to be paid by Pepkor SA. Do you know how much these were?

Andi do you honestly think it is any use even listen to that. If one has a hate for a share does not mater what is said there will always be a negative.

I don't even read anything more that Polly the Troll writes it has its own agenda!!!