15225 replies to this topic

[andi222]

I just googled for Steinhoff news and I get the following headlines:

Steinhoff the Shock
Deep red numbers also in 2018
Steinhoff huge losses
Steinhoff posts 1.2 billion losses
Steinhoff price collapse after billion losses

Thats just to name a few. Why are these reporters tryong to make the picture sound like Steinhoff is gonna close down their stores like now?? Do they get money from investors who are shorting Steinhoff? I really dont understand?
Why dont they issue a fair unbiased view?


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[new john]

Hi NewJohn,

Finding a bottom is always hard and most of the times you wont get it right. I have dobe detailed valuations on Steinhoff and compared it with some friends and not one of us was expexting a 770 EBITDA. I think I have posted a range between 650 amd 750 last week and suorisibgly we where above that. Taking into account the q1 update i think we will see some really good results for HJ 1 2019.
I will repost an article that summs up some good points. However its in German so the translation might be bad but you should find some good info why I'm topping up.

Again, its just my own opinion an not any aevice to buy or sell shares.

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Appreciate your thoughts Andi. 

 

I too concur that in 5 - 10 years time we'll all look back, and no matter what we do now, we'll regret not buying more  

 

However hindsight is an exact science, it's with that in mind that I'm comfortable holding out till i reach my average. That will give me the confidence in this share to put more of my hard earned randelas on the line. 

[andi222]

Extract from another forum by mfag:
"To the balance sheet 2018: What are the most important findings in figures from this balance sheet in a nutshell: The overall result showed a loss of € 1,165 million. Cash and cash equivalents improved from € 723 million to € 1.375 billion in 2018. Assets, the assets, deteriorated from € 17,505 to € 16,370 billion in 2018 compared to 2017, due to the disposal of unprofitable assets (subsidiaries and equity investments). Equity has shrunk to € 641 million. The overall turnover of Steinhoff Holding has developed slightly positively, namely from € 12.493 billion to € 12.827 billion. Gross profit also increased slightly from € 4,883 billion to € 4,976 billion. Now it will increasingly come to the half-year figures for the financial year 2019. These figures make me optimistic, because it shows that the current business operations in the operational area is viable and the elimination of legacies can be increasingly tackled. After all, you now have clarity about the financial situation of Steinhoff. I expect the CVA to be adopted by June 30 and that the quarterly figures for fiscal year 2019, which are expected on July 12, will prove Steinhoff AG's significantly improved future viability. Now that the facts are all open on the table, I think you can look a little calmer in the future. As far as the complaints in Germany are concerned, I have already reported on their chances of success several times, I can not comment on the complaints abroad in a serious way. However, I believe that, in particular, Steinhoff's actions against the perpetrators of the frauds are rigorously recorded and carried out, and that they may still be surprises. I do not think there is any reason to panic right now. Just over a year ago, when scores of alarmists propagated the insolvency of Steinhoff, the price was significantly higher, so that a continuous improvement in the earnings situation should give us a positive course of development. In the coming week, I'll talk about it in more detail on YouTube. Until then, I wish all forists rising courses and good nerves to endure any unreasonable volatility.

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[andi222]

Andi, are you willing to make a buy at this early stage of reaction to AFS?
My approach is perhaps a bit more conservative, at an average cost of 174, I'm willing to hold on a while. Would like to hear your opinion on why you think we've reached a bottom (if you in fact think that, as i am assuming)

Hi NewJohn,

Finding a bottom is always hard and most of the times you wont get it right. I have dobe detailed valuations on Steinhoff and compared it with some friends and not one of us was expexting a 770 EBITDA. I think I have posted a range between 650 amd 750 last week and suorisibgly we where above that. Taking into account the q1 update i think we will see some really good results for HJ 1 2019.
I will repost an article that summs up some good points. However its in German so the translation might be bad but you should find some good info why I'm topping up.

Again, its just my own opinion an not any aevice to buy or sell shares.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[DayTraderDad]

Hi folks,
 
My initial impressions below... Usual disclaimer:  I am not a registered CFA in South Africa.  These are my own opinions are are not investment advice.
 
First, the bad news.  The advisory fees are immense (E117m)  and the sooner this is not needed the better - that number will drop to the bottom line.  Also, the fact that the business turned a loss must not be dismissed trivially.  The E1192 loss was the single largest contributor to the erosion of equity from the 2017 E2090 to E641.  Some of the round-table colleagues had expressed serious fears that the equity may dip into negative equity.  We are happy that this did not occur. 
 
Some of you are aware that I had engaged a group of fellow investors across world.  We then looked at arriving at a consensus.  This is a useful exercise as it protects against individual errors or bias.  Typically we lean towards being conservative.  I am happy to say that in some cases the actual results exceeded estimations marginally.
 
Generally speaking, the AFS18 results are reasonably on target with expectations.  For Revenue (total including discontinued ops), we estimated revenue at E17123 vs actual E18021.    The reported EBITDA is better by a significant margin.  Our previous EBITDA consensus varied from a low of E423m to E700m vs actual E681 (again including discontinued operations). 
 
Incidentally, we carried out a bottom up approach as well as a top down estimation and it is incredible how close we were on some of the businesses.  Our estimate for Pepkor Africa was E478 vs actual E505; MF estimate -$131 or -E110  vs actual -E125; Aussie E68 vs actual E43;
 
The one place that we were materially different was for the European business - est E308 vs actual E245 - Confo was the chief culprit!  We will definitely take this on board as I think that we may be over optimistic for 1H19 for the European business (we had estimated E162)
 
Overall, I am very heartened by the revenue and EBITDA. 
 
From a business sustainability perspective the 905 new stores (with 495 closures) is fantastic!  This is not the behaviour of a business that is about to close.  In fact, it is the exact opposite. 
 
From the Balance Sheet perspective, I am extremely happy at the news that has confirmed what we have being saying for a while now.  MF and Confo to be unbundled and that this will have a material positive impact on the NAV.  I am revising my numbers, but it is REALLY looking good.
 
Best Regards
Captainfrom82

Thanks Captain great post. I just want to point out that Total equity attributable to owners of Steinhoff N.V. is -521 and in 2017 was 924.

[DayTraderDad]

NAV here is history. We should focus on what is comming. Everywhere headlines are published of how much losses made and that after a 4 billion loss another 1 billion loss came in. However these okes don't understand that most of these losses where of a non cash basis. The crux here to keep it simple is the sustainable EBIT and whether they will be able to cover the interest whith it. In 2019 im expecting an EBIT of above 1 Billion. Which is achivable given that they produced a 770 Million now.

With that 1 Billion they can and will be able to cover their interest even if u take the 10% interest what most bashers here say they will be paying.

For me managenent has understood what they need to do and they have a plan. I would say that we could see sone solid dividends in 4 to 5 years from now on.

Im gonna top up on as mentioned before, in my opinion this is a once in a life tine opportunity.

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I agree its very hard for the media to see anything positive in SNH. Look at the media first article came out minutes after the announcement
yet when good news comes out like the agreement to the consent 3 of the CVA no article, yesterday important SEC announcement that Mattress Firm
and Tempur Sealy coming together again also no mention. It's all one sided.
The media and hot shot analyst got it wrong with MJ now they going to get it wrong again with this great management.

[new john]

NAV here is history. We should focus on what is comming. Everywhere headlines are published of how much losses made and that after a 4 billion loss another 1 billion loss came in. However these okes don't understand that most of these losses where of a non cash basis. The crux here to keep it simple is the sustainable EBIT and whether they will be able to cover the interest whith it. In 2019 im expecting an EBIT of above 1 Billion. Which is achivable given that they produced a 770 Million now.

With that 1 Billion they can and will be able to cover their interest even if u take the 10% interest what most bashers here say they will be paying.

For me managenent has understood what they need to do and they have a plan. I would say that we could see sone solid dividends in 4 to 5 years from now on.

Im gonna top up on as mentioned before, in my opinion this is a once in a life tine opportunity.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

 

Andi, are you willing to make a buy at this early stage of reaction to AFS? 

My approach is perhaps a bit more conservative, at an average cost of 174, I'm willing to hold on a while. Would like to hear your opinion on why you think we've reached a bottom (if you in fact think that, as i am assuming) 

[Captainfrom82]

Hi Captain whats your thoughts!!!

 

Hi folks,

 

My initial impressions below... Usual disclaimer:  I am not a registered CFA in South Africa.  These are my own opinions are are not investment advice.

 

First, the bad news.  The advisory fees are immense (E117m)  and the sooner this is not needed the better - that number will drop to the bottom line.  Also, the fact that the business turned a loss must not be dismissed trivially.  The E1192 loss was the single largest contributor to the erosion of equity from the 2017 E2090 to E641.  Some of the round-table colleagues had expressed serious fears that the equity may dip into negative equity.  We are happy that this did not occur. 

 

Some of you are aware that I had engaged a group of fellow investors across world.  We then looked at arriving at a consensus.  This is a useful exercise as it protects against individual errors or bias.  Typically we lean towards being conservative.  I am happy to say that in some cases the actual results exceeded estimations marginally.

 

Generally speaking, the AFS18 results are reasonably on target with expectations.  For Revenue (total including discontinued ops), we estimated revenue at E17123 vs actual E18021.    The reported EBITDA is better by a significant margin.  Our previous EBITDA consensus varied from a low of E423m to E700m vs actual E681 (again including discontinued operations). 

 

Incidentally, we carried out a bottom up approach as well as a top down estimation and it is incredible how close we were on some of the businesses.  Our estimate for Pepkor Africa was E478 vs actual E505; MF estimate -$131 or -E110  vs actual -E125; Aussie E68 vs actual E43;

 

The one place that we were materially different was for the European business - est E308 vs actual E245 - Confo was the chief culprit!  We will definitely take this on board as I think that we may be over optimistic for 1H19 for the European business (we had estimated E162)

 

Overall, I am very heartened by the revenue and EBITDA. 

 

From a business sustainability perspective the 905 new stores (with 495 closures) is fantastic!  This is not the behaviour of a business that is about to close.  In fact, it is the exact opposite. 

 

From the Balance Sheet perspective, I am extremely happy at the news that has confirmed what we have being saying for a while now.  MF and Confo to be unbundled and that this will have a material positive impact on the NAV.  I am revising my numbers, but it is REALLY looking good.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

lol yea i aint parting with it just yet....not until i see that 40% recovered that was lost on afs 2017. You talk about views of different people, Polly the TROLL is a different person and had a different view and it sure was in line with market trend hey
 
where i do find some comfort is that market reaction to afs 2018 not the same to 2017....or not yet anywayz and hopefully it stays that way

Yes Lionel according to Polly the Troll the share should have reached ZERO by now so he too cannot predict with certainty.
Yes I agree different people have different ways to see value that's why Warren Buffet referred swimming against the stream.
Its good that there are people with different take on risk would be a sad day if we saw risk all the same then there would be no point trading.
We can talk about this until the cows come home but OPERATING PROFIT/(LOSS) FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS (€M): 504 is E0.11 per share.
If Conforama and UK household good losses were not there then profit would be over 600.(they are now being turned around)
The truth of the matter is 19 mil shares traded in Tradegate, 4.1 mil in the JSE so this is not small retail investors playing.

[andi222]

NAV here is history. We should focus on what is comming. Everywhere headlines are published of how much losses made and that after a 4 billion loss another 1 billion loss came in. However these okes don't understand that most of these losses where of a non cash basis. The crux here to keep it simple is the sustainable EBIT and whether they will be able to cover the interest whith it. In 2019 im expecting an EBIT of above 1 Billion. Which is achivable given that they produced a 770 Million now.

With that 1 Billion they can and will be able to cover their interest even if u take the 10% interest what most bashers here say they will be paying.

For me managenent has understood what they need to do and they have a plan. I would say that we could see sone solid dividends in 4 to 5 years from now on.

Im gonna top up on as mentioned before, in my opinion this is a once in a life tine opportunity.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[new john]

lol yea i aint parting with it just yet....not until i see that 40% recovered that was lost on afs 2017. You talk about views of different people, Polly the TROLL is a different person and had a different view and it sure was in line with market trend hey

 

where i do find some comfort is that market reaction to afs 2018 not the same to 2017....or not yet anywayz and hopefully it stays that way

 

With you here. No point in gambling until a substantial increase takes place (positive thoughts!!) 

[DayTraderDad]

Ha Ha yes I think closing of the gap as DayTrader mentioned is more imported. So hopefully going up from now. And all the short sellers stop there nonsense.

People shorting SNH now must either be very brave or very stupid!!!

[Lionelza1]

Haha that's exactly the thing I have always said what we comment on this forum makes absolutely no difference to the market its just the views of
different people.
Further there is no one on this world that can predict the market with a high level of certainty all the time and people never discuss their
losses only brag about winnings.
Good keep your balls warm with the weather patterns these days no point freezing them. Hahaha

 

lol yea i aint parting with it just yet....not until i see that 40% recovered that was lost on afs 2017. You talk about views of different people, Polly the TROLL is a different person and had a different view and it sure was in line with market trend hey

 

where i do find some comfort is that market reaction to afs 2018 not the same to 2017....or not yet anywayz and hopefully it stays that way

[Midas1]

This is why don't trade snh...i thought could be upswing it goes down....im clueless with this share but too risky for me

[DayTraderDad]

yea quit commenting on the term i use, pump dump up down high low, all the same meaning
 
what u guys say and what market does is where there's difference.
 
and yes i've learnt to be patient....is why my money still in my pocket close to my balls haha

Haha that's exactly the thing I have always said what we comment on this forum makes absolutely no difference to the market its just the views of
different people.
Further there is no one on this world that can predict the market with a high level of certainty all the time and people never discuss their
losses only brag about winnings.
Good keep your balls warm with the weather patterns these days no point freezing them. Hahaha

[Milo]

lol u been calling on that head and shoulders story for some time now hey

Ha Ha yes I think closing of the gap as DayTrader mentioned is more imported. So hopefully going up from now. And all the short sellers stop there nonsense.

[Lionelza1]

Nice inverted head and shoulder nearly complete and bottom gap close. Sit back and relax 

 

lol u been calling on that head and shoulders story for some time now hey

[Lionelza1]

Hi Lionel you still have not learnt pumping is for gamblers read the comments of Andi its very clear!!!

 

yea quit commenting on the term i use, pump dump up down high low, all the same meaning

 

what u guys say and what market does is where there's difference.

 

and yes i've learnt to be patient....is why my money still in my pocket close to my balls haha

[DayTraderDad]

The trading phrase "baked in" comes to mind. Yes, we will see an initial decline, however one cannot argue the evidence of institutions buying in. 
I may be a confirmation biast, but if this share were to completely tank, a part of me feels it would have done so already.

I agree the gap on the daily chart also now closed so I also see the start of the up movement.

[Milo]

Nice inverted head and shoulder nearly complete and bottom gap close. Sit back and relax