15225 replies to this topic

[leo]

Here's my strategy for the up coming weeks.

1. Do nothing for about 2 to 3 weeks max.
2. Then taking a long position and wait for lock up.
3. Long just before the the fy17 hype.
4. But want to short the stock before the results are out, with a healthy margin as things will be rough, with a stop,obviously.
5. If the share drops, it will be quick and painful, so will try catch the tail end of short.

Currently, I'm out.

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[LarryK]

@Polly. I must say it’s very quiet on here suddenly.

Just remember there’s some of us on here that appreciate your, IN, snippit, Tom, Leo, etc’s opinions

[Ms Jet]

Whys everyone squabbling on ALSI????....thought these are opinions not written in stone...

[Polly]

spent the last hour reading through this thread...and guess what..

 

See some guys had fun at me....Where are the same guys now??

 

Been here long enough to fathom who are the bullshitters..

 

One tip for newbies:

 

Never ever ever trust any blogger who does not show his trade but after the event  says i made this and that...never ever..

 

One blogger talked big about how he makes money on short squeeze. Bet he he is bust by now...or balls shrunk 

Edited by Polly, 23 October 2018 - 02:16 PM.

[leo]

I'm trying really hard not to be sarcastic......

 

Steinhoff took a write off of Euro 12.4b  - Is this not a material accounting irregularity??????

 

https://www.fin24.co...eepens-20180630

 

That was followed by another 1b ish Euro write off of their property portfolio. 

 

 

And for the reasons above, debt has now become an issue!!!

 

Think I'm just going to stop commenting on this thread. Can't deal anymore.

 

[Matrix]

Major major major difference between losses as a result of poor management decisions in day to day running of company ....IE selling a kruger rand whose value is R10000.00 for R8000.00

 

and  

 

 

 

Wholesale fraud.... IE selling a kruger rand and later buyer finds out its  not pure gold but fake worth only R1000.00

 

Agreed Polly.

 

This was also my original thought.

The argument will probably be around the following:

Was this something done TO Steinhoff, i.e. by Jooste, and here SNH will plead innocence and blame him.

Or was this something done BY Steinhoff, i.e. multiple parties aware of this and took these decisions together.

Just my laymen's thinking and no law experience.

 

As mentioned in post below the court cases does not bother me that much, but not sure how they will get out of the debt hole they are in.

[Polly]

Business Live article: (Good news for current shareholders)

 

"Grim news for Steinhoff shareholders

 

If Steinhoff shareholders want action to be taken against the directors and auditors, they must get the firm to do it

 

The North Gauteng High Court’s recent dismissal of attempts by African Bank’s BEE shareholders to proceed with legal action against the bank’s former CEO, Leon Kirkinis, his fellow board members and Deloitte is grim news for any Steinhoff shareholders wanting to hold the retail group’s directors and auditors to account.

The court has confirmed that in SA law shareholders cannot sue for what’s referred to as "reflective" losses.

"A loss claimed by a shareholder as a result of a wrong done to the company is merely a reflection of the loss suffered by the company," says the court. In law the shares are merely a right of participation in the company on the terms set down by the memorandum of incorporation. As far as the court is concerned, while the value of the shares has been reduced significantly the shareholders still hold all the shares."

 

 

Major major major difference between losses as a result of poor management decisions in day to day running of company ....IE selling a kruger rand whose value is R10000.00 for R8000.00

 

and  

 

 

 

Wholesale fraud.... IE selling a kruger rand and later buyer finds out its  not pure gold but fake worth only R1000.00

[Ms Jet]

Put my Steinhoff cash onto naspers...it may not be a quick buck but some of the techs say could go up 40% in next year and that is good enough for me (or any upside over 10% ok) ..to me its a very cheap buy at the moment..but that's  opinion...anyway had my money in snh for 8 - 9 months so having to wait a period of time just same thing just not as depressing...

[Matrix]

Business Live article: (Good news for current shareholders)

 

"Grim news for Steinhoff shareholders

 

If Steinhoff shareholders want action to be taken against the directors and auditors, they must get the firm to do it

 

The North Gauteng High Court’s recent dismissal of attempts by African Bank’s BEE shareholders to proceed with legal action against the bank’s former CEO, Leon Kirkinis, his fellow board members and Deloitte is grim news for any Steinhoff shareholders wanting to hold the retail group’s directors and auditors to account.

The court has confirmed that in SA law shareholders cannot sue for what’s referred to as "reflective" losses.

"A loss claimed by a shareholder as a result of a wrong done to the company is merely a reflection of the loss suffered by the company," says the court. In law the shares are merely a right of participation in the company on the terms set down by the memorandum of incorporation. As far as the court is concerned, while the value of the shares has been reduced significantly the shareholders still hold all the shares."

Edited by Matrix, 23 October 2018 - 10:15 AM.

[andi222]

Too risky till 20th November. As i mentioned i think shorters will try to push the price down as far as possible as they know no news are expected till then. I will probably get back in at the end of november. But with this share everythibg can happen.

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[Ms Jet]

And the longs tell you how positive things are that a few more shops have opened....

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Yebo...keep your wits about you...personally Im out as didn't think looking good...but you need write down positives and neg and work it out for yourselves and I agree with matrix re risk..

[leo]

I agree Matrix, I also sold and if you are out you are impartial like myself, however I would caution followers that their are lots of SHORTERS and longs on the thread and shorts obviously spread as much negativity as possible...

And the longs tell you how positive things are that a few more shops have opened....

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[Ms Jet]

I agree Matrix, I also sold and if you are out you are impartial like myself, however I would caution followers that their are lots of SHORTERS and longs on the thread and shorts obviously spread as much negativity as possible...

[Matrix]

I invested heavily in SNH (relative to my personal finances) and spent about R480k previously on these shares.

 

My whole investment argument was that there are not enough new/damaging facts on the table to warrant the price drop.

Yes sure some assets had to be written down, but there's no proof of fraud, and I believe the current management has done a good job so far.

Furthermore I was not to worried about the court cases, and we've now seen VEB temporarily step back.

 

That being said, I sold out about a month ago at R2.64.

 

I believe the risk is just to big for what the potential upswing may be, main dampener on the potential upswing being the debt.

My opinion is that is why even with continued news of credit lines being granted, such as recently with SNH Asia, this cannot be seen as very positive.

Debt is only good if you are able to repay it.

 

Obviously SNH will restructure materially, dispose of Assets and get out of leases.

I am interested however from anyone's perspective that is still positive about SNH, how they see debt being repaid within anything short of 5 years.

 

IMPO therefor the controversy and accounting irregularities are not an issue, but there is just materially to much debt to warrant buying this share.

I do sincerely hope however for all involved that they are able to pull a magic rabbit from the hat!

 

Side-note: If you look at potential profit vs debt, and risk relative to reward i believe something like Aveng to be a better gamble.

[leo]

harsh dude.....your guess on this useless thing is as good as any1's

 

Maybe. But there is a big difference between the word "selling" and "buying". Anyways.....

 

 

IMPO ("In My Personal Opinion") - People are going to burn their fingers badly with this share. Lets look at a few glaring issues:

 

Institutional Investors are fleeing;

MF - All goodwill and intangibles assets most likely to be written off. - Key event has taken place (please look at IFRS3 - Business Combos);

Interest repayments are bigger than Normalised EBITDA figures; and

Tangible NAV is already negative.

 

My view and take.

 

This share is a dud - 1) It will go up on the Lock up agreement and 2) will go up again on the hype around the FY17 AFS. Then we going to see that drop that we saw on the from the 19/7/18 to about the 24th, and maybe even drop under R1.

 

IMPO

Make your own conclusion about the above

Have a plan in place, stop loss or something. Everyone is so worried about an entry point (which is correct), but have you though about an exit strategy? Are you happy to lose out on some gains but have a strategy for capital preservation? Or do you just go Ba**s deep?

 

I'm still 40% down - But I have a better strategy now, part of that is not to be in when those AFS are released, or to hedge with a CFD.

 

Thanks to everyone whom always contributes. We soon going to climax..

[Lionelza1]

Thanks Polly. 

 

Beside people ignoring fundamentals on this thread, they can't read either....

harsh dude.....your guess on this useless thing is as good as any1's

[leo]

This useless thing will continue to drop till 20Nov........unless these useless liars come out with more suprises.

Spot on. They just throw so many curve balls....all the time

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[Lionelza1]

https://www.tradegat...in=NL0011375019

Think we going to be down this morning, based on trade gate.

Majority of big institutions are selling out. Do we know something they don't....

This useless thing will continue to drop till 20Nov........unless these useless liars come out with more suprises.

[leo]

https://www.tradegat...in=NL0011375019

Think we going to be down this morning, based on trade gate.

Majority of big institutions are selling out. Do we know something they don't....

[JK001]

Capture 1.PNG

interesting that they do not sell everything but a small percentage (except for 3 if my counting is correct), you think they need cash for a x-mas party?