Even though I get the sense that certain people have knives out for me, this is my view.
What do we know thus far.
1/ Steinhoff: Net asset value per share is 58 Euro cents (R9) but the following uncertainties and issues need to be considered:
2/ There is uncertainty that Steinhoff is a going concern, arising from: • Financial creditor claims • Litigation claims/ disputes • Liquidity
3/ Steinhoff. Further uncertainties: • No provision for contingent liabilities is recognised or quantified (for legal reasons). • PwC investigation not yet complete. Further adjustments may come to light. • Carrying value of properties remain uncertain
4/ Steinhoff. Further issues: • €9.3b of goodwill & intangibles remain on balance sheet. • Thus tangible NAV is negative. • Cash flow is negative. • The entire supply chain is threatened as trade terms tighten. • Cost of borrowing has risen materially.
5/ Steinhoff: Operationally only Star & Pepkor Europe contribute significant profits. Conforama poor but Poundland apparently did well (Ebitda not disclosed). US is loss making. Oz is profitable, but small. Properties generated book profits, but their value remains uncertain.
6/ Steinhoff: It should be noted that the large current liabilities are misleading. The breach of covenants require the loans to be reclassified as current until a restructuring plan is finalised. If successful, a substantial portion will be moved back to non-current liabilities
7/ And as a final affront to shareholders, the Steinhoff company Gulfstream jet was sold at a loss of $6.3m (R86m).
The above was by Karin Richards - 30 June 2018.
Steinhoff: Equity for FY17 'restated' by €10.9b as follows: Opening bal: € 16.6b Impair goodwill -€ 2.4b Impair property -€ 1.5b Other -€ 7.0b Closing bal: € 5.7b
Steinhoff: Massive loss for the 6mths of €599m (R9.6bn). Restatements for FY16 of €10bn (R160bn). Debt at €9.4bn is 2.5 times equity. And this is not the end of it. Further write-offs, claims and tax liabilities uncertain.
2/ There is uncertainty that Steinhoff is a going concern, arising from: • Financial creditor claims • Litigation claims/ disputes • Liquidity
Point that i'm trying to get across is that it appears that the company is a going concern, esp after the LUA agreements, but there are massive unknown issues
BUT we have not fundamentals to trade on, we are ALL speculating here. People throw comments like "good feeling in my balls", those are not fundamentals
. We have no forecasts and no solid balance sheet. But what we hunching on, is that NAV is c. R9, so even if the company takes another 50% write down of Goodwill, we still in a c. R4 to c. R5 value range for now. AND that seems like a good punt to me.
I was very surprised that Q3 sales went up, very good news are many people expected a drop due to customers scared of making deposits on eg kitchen units, as customers are worried about losing it.
and if the liabilities are more?
6/ Steinhoff: It should be noted that the large current liabilities are misleading. The breach of covenants require the loans to be reclassified as current until a restructuring plan is finalised. If successful, a substantial portion will be moved back to non-current liabilities