15225 replies to this topic

[Squideye]

Steinhoff's Mattress Firm aims for New York Stock Exchange listing @ https://www.news24.c...isting-20220110

[Investment novice]

If we get ipos announced going to further create a pump and it the are 100% subscribed wow may see 50 % debt taken out...is that possible for both mf ? Pepkor ???
That may be the trigger past r10

[DeltaHedge]

Things are happening fast and you are going to miss out on your R12 prediction.... Stop drinking the green beers

Lol

[Squideye]

ZA media houses are waking up after the weekend...https://www.business...w-york-listing/

Edited by Squideye, 10 January 2022 - 07:48 AM.

[Lionelza1]

Haha thanks, I will go fishing in the morning its going to be too volatile!

Things are happening fast and you are going to miss out on your R12 prediction.... Stop drinking the green beers

[Batra]

@DTD
First, thanks to contribute to really challenge SNH officionados on this forum. I am one of those who faithfully strongly believes in this share, not only from a money making angle but also long term business model and plans.
However I need to be challenged beyond my own belief with facts. So really appreciate your thorough analysis, always. However I also like to challenge you, reminding that sometimes the rationale of financial analysts, let alone the rationale of the market itself is…..non rationale well beyond metrics.
One exemple I have in mind and I did quite study that one which I totally failed to understand so far is the story of GameStop Corp (ticker GME on NYSE)
Basically a heavily indebted distribution chain of video games, once supported by the Reddit community but which during the last 10 years never went beyond usd 55, collapsed in 2020, losing 90% of its value (down to 2.8$ in March 2020), then recovered in a mysterious way up to 483$/share, today down to an average of 150$/ share. Now if you look at this company, huge market cap at current share price (11 bns$), but EPS highly negative (-2.2$) (SNH -0.3€). If you look at their financial statement from 2017 onwards, you see for instance that Ebitda highly positive in 2019 was against a share value incredibly low (less than 5$) whilst a negative Ebitda 2021 of minus 172.9M $ is against a current share value of 150$ average. When you look at their balance sheet, you see that the share price is increasing whilst the total assets growth is decreasing. Their current total liabilities is 1.34bn $ for a total equity of 436.7M$, which I believe is worse than SNH
Still, this share has not only recovered but is remaining high for reasons from outer space.
Btw, I missed the lift on that one, by far too speculative and risky for me
But now when you look at SNH business model, portfolio, plans, recovery plan, tangible actions such as GS and so, why not being a strong believer of that one on the long term? And this beyond metrics and level of indebtedness. At least SNH management is proving for the last three years that they are able to deal with a crisis situation, bring solutions and have a mid to long term plan, which in itself is quite an intangible asset

[DayTraderDad]

Katspoegie volume at over-the-counter trading in Germany today from 18:00 to 20:00 (GMT+2)... @ https://www.ls-tc.de...-int-hld-aktie

Haha thanks, I will go fishing in the morning its going to be too volatile!

Edited by DayTraderDad, 09 January 2022 - 09:59 PM.

[Squideye]

I am going to buy at open for day trading because the German euphoria does not read they just look at headlines!!

  Katspoegie volume at over-the-counter trading in Germany today from 18:00 to 20:00 (GMT+2)... @ https://www.ls-tc.de...-int-hld-aktie 

Edited by Squideye, 09 January 2022 - 07:21 PM.

[Squideye]

...

Attached Files

•  20220109.pdf   544.09KB   33 downloads

[DayTraderDad]

This is a total **** show , I agree but I want to hear from management why the fooook they would have done something like this. Corp finance 101 do not borrow money to pay dividends, must be fokall growth opportunities or they are on crack.

It could go either way tomorrow.

I am going to buy at open for day trading because the German euphoria does not read they just look at headlines!!

[DeltaHedge]

Haha the joke of the day!

Below the dividend policy as stated in the prospectus however shareholders go a borrow $1,25 BIL to pay out dividends!

Dividend policy:
We currently expect to retain all future earning for use in the
operation and expansion of our business and do not anticipate
paying dividends on our common stock for the foreseeable
future. Any future determinations with respect to the
declaration, amount and payment of any dividends on our
common stock will be subject to the sole discretion of our
board of directors, and will depend on various factors, including
applicable law. In addition, our ability to pay dividends is, and in
the future may be, limited by the agreements governing any of
our indebtedness we or our subsidiaries currently have or may
in the future incur. See “Dividend Policy.”

This is a total **** show , I agree but I want to hear from management why the fooook they would have done something like this. Corp finance 101 do not borrow money to pay dividends, must be fokall growth opportunities or they are on crack.

It could go either way tomorrow.

[DayTraderDad]

Haha the joke of the day!

Below the dividend policy as stated in the prospectus however shareholders go a borrow $1,25 BIL to pay out dividends!

Dividend policy:
We currently expect to retain all future earning for use in the
operation and expansion of our business and do not anticipate
paying dividends on our common stock for the foreseeable
future. Any future determinations with respect to the
declaration, amount and payment of any dividends on our
common stock will be subject to the sole discretion of our
board of directors, and will depend on various factors, including
applicable law. In addition, our ability to pay dividends is, and in
the future may be, limited by the agreements governing any of
our indebtedness we or our subsidiaries currently have or may
in the future incur. See “Dividend Policy.”

[DayTraderDad]

Maybe you haven’t been reading my posts because my strategy is different to yours, or my handle said “Newbie” , however, in my very first post on this forum (June 2020), I posted a chart which showed 380 as my initial target. So how did I know that the market would sell from that zone 16 months before the fact? I have basically been documenting my long trade through my posts. I guess its only LarryK and I who sold into that 380 zone.
 
Just recently I posted how buyers will be back around my rising trend line (194). The charts cannot be manipulated (unlike financials) and is the only tool which can give you clues to where the market is headed prior to actual News. 
I can post five JSE stocks off hand and their charts look virtually identical. With high frequency machines trading the market, you need to immerse yourself in them to find the edge.
 
I always tell my kid, not to pay attention to Economists, Analysts or News Agencies.
I use the ZAR as an example. Raising rates makes a currency more attractive to investors, yet when the repo rate is raised, the ZAR gets weaker.
Fundamentally that makes no sense, yet all the Analysts and Economists have some excuse.
Listening to how well renowned Analysts say that the JSE and ZAR went green because of China Trade Talks and the very next day, the market is in the red, why? Trade talks stalled according to them. I don’t believe Billionaire investors invest one day and sell the next day at a loss.
 
Sure, a company can go down the tubes, however, knowing what to look for in a chart can give you clues to liquidate your position prior. The Market always knows where its headed before retail investors because the latter are waiting for the News to break.
 
Time cycles is also something I have mentioned on this forum. I recently looked at Natural Gas, a major low in 1990, followed by a major top in 2005. The next major low was in 2020. Beautiful 15 year cycles.
 
I can go on and on about symmetry, but ultimately I’m here to make money and my money is on SNH higher to my ideal target. Both set in May 2020 when the whole world were bearish.

Thanks for the great post. I am reading and do understand and totally agree with you I stopped, listerning to anslysts many years ago when watching TV the analyst said by Didata because is the best the very next day it crashed.

I do believe in charts (and indeed make use of them) however they are reading the past to try and predict the future.

The charts cannot predict the timing. For example the TT old boys settlement how would that be predicted? If they did not settly your R3.80 target would still have not been reached.

Saying the above however I am greatfull for your post (very sure other also appreciate them) and please do share more because it provides good insight!

[KP7]

Hi KP7 its great to have a discussion for me that's why I post my thoughts to hear the other people's ideas so that I can use all views to make a judgement call.

 

I operate with two portfolios one is long term and the other is daily day trading. I still buy and sell SNH everyday and sometimes twice or three times depending on the volatility but don't keep it for long.

 

On my long term I sold out  based on my valuations because now its fairly easy to put a value to SNH and due to the debt SNH at present has negative equity and R5 is too reach for a price.

 

I am waiting until it falls below R2 then will see what is the situation and developments before commencing to buy for long term.

 

Now that we have clarity of MF IPO and financials the increased debt for dividend payout which will cost MF $68 mil per year (just rough figure) until 2028 its very much doubtful there will be a very high price for the sale of the 50% SNH has.

 

I fail to understand why would a company go and take a loan of $1,25 bil to pay shareholders dividends??

 

Anyway on Monday I expect the share will run up so I will certainly be buying at open!!!

 

For me technical assessment/charting is not real/effective due to the euphoria created by the news sensation.

 

Just take a look in 7th or 8th September 2021 when news came out how the share dropped immediately to Eur 0.06 before it started to recover. Surely no technical charting could predict that!!

 

What you think will happen to the share price if SNH had to announce they selling 100% of PEPCO to the creditors and will only keep 10% of Pepkor?

 

Maybe you haven’t been reading my posts because my strategy is different to yours, or my handle said “Newbie” , however, in my very first post on this forum (June 2020), I posted a chart which showed 380 as my initial target. So how did I know that the market would sell from that zone 16 months before the fact? I have basically been documenting my long trade through my posts. I guess its only LarryK and I who sold into that 380 zone.

 

Just recently I posted how buyers will be back around my rising trend line (194). The charts cannot be manipulated (unlike financials) and is the only tool which can give you clues to where the market is headed prior to actual News. 

I can post five JSE stocks off hand and their charts look virtually identical. With high frequency machines trading the market, you need to immerse yourself in them to find the edge.

 

I always tell my kid, not to pay attention to Economists, Analysts or News Agencies.

I use the ZAR as an example. Raising rates makes a currency more attractive to investors, yet when the repo rate is raised, the ZAR gets weaker.

Fundamentally that makes no sense, yet all the Analysts and Economists have some excuse.

Listening to how well renowned Analysts say that the JSE and ZAR went green because of China Trade Talks and the very next day, the market is in the red, why? Trade talks stalled according to them. I don’t believe Billionaire investors invest one day and sell the next day at a loss.

 

Sure, a company can go down the tubes, however, knowing what to look for in a chart can give you clues to liquidate your position prior. The Market always knows where its headed before retail investors because the latter are waiting for the News to break.

 

Time cycles is also something I have mentioned on this forum. I recently looked at Natural Gas, a major low in 1990, followed by a major top in 2005. The next major low was in 2020. Beautiful 15 year cycles.

 

I can go on and on about symmetry, but ultimately I’m here to make money and my money is on SNH higher to my ideal target. Both set in May 2020 when the whole world were bearish. 

[DayTraderDad]

Thanks for your response, I agree that  Banks don’t lend money on your looks, however the market is not a Bank and they certainly don’t operate on the same criteria. From my experience, the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent and my pockets are not deep to even take it on 

Although, many people were granted ridiculous loans because on popularity and social standing, got found out after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Vijay Mallya  immediately comes to mind.

 

I agree that we can still pullback to 378 (50%) and 334 (61.8%), however, as I said before, I still believe in my upside target even if it does. 

 

Again, if your trading is based on valuation, would you short at these “overvalued” levels (probably make a killing if it tanks) or are you waiting to buy at your valuation of R1,08?

My question is to engage in constructive discussion and not to attack anybody’s strategy.

Hi KP7 its great to have a discussion for me that's why I post my thoughts to hear the other people's ideas so that I can use all views to make a judgement call.

 

I operate with two portfolios one is long term and the other is daily day trading. I still buy and sell SNH everyday and sometimes twice or three times depending on the volatility but don't keep it for long.

 

On my long term I sold out  based on my valuations because now its fairly easy to put a value to SNH and due to the debt SNH at present has negative equity and R5 is too reach for a price.

 

I am waiting until it falls below R2 then will see what is the situation and developments before commencing to buy for long term.

 

Now that we have clarity of MF IPO and financials the increased debt for dividend payout which will cost MF $68 mil per year (just rough figure) until 2028 its very much doubtful there will be a very high price for the sale of the 50% SNH has.

 

I fail to understand why would a company go and take a loan of $1,25 bil to pay shareholders dividends??

 

Anyway on Monday I expect the share will run up so I will certainly be buying at open!!!

 

For me technical assessment/charting is not real/effective due to the euphoria created by the news sensation.

 

Just take a look in 7th or 8th September 2021 when news came out how the share dropped immediately to Eur 0.06 before it started to recover. Surely no technical charting could predict that!!

 

What you think will happen to the share price if SNH had to announce they selling 100% of PEPCO to the creditors and will only keep 10% of Pepkor?

[KP7]

Yes diferent people do diferent assessments and indeed these days financials dont mean much and I take them with a pinch of salt. My target price is based on valuation using the various business units share price.

When I go to the bank to borrow money they dont lend me money on my looks and popularity they lend me a certain percentage of my assets.

Anyway each to is own I am just posting so that people can make their own judgement calls. would be so sad to sit and wait for the R6 and see the price drop so fast to the R2 or R3 levels.

 

Thanks for your response, I agree that  Banks don’t lend money on your looks, however the market is not a Bank and they certainly don’t operate on the same criteria. From my experience, the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent and my pockets are not deep to even take it on 

Although, many people were granted ridiculous loans because on popularity and social standing, got found out after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Vijay Mallya  immediately comes to mind.

 

I agree that we can still pullback to 378 (50%) and 334 (61.8%), however, as I said before, I still believe in my upside target even if it does. 

 

Again, if your trading is based on valuation, would you short at these “overvalued” levels (probably make a killing if it tanks) or are you waiting to buy at your valuation of R1,08?

My question is to engage in constructive discussion and not to attack anybody’s strategy.

[DayTraderDad]

...

Excellent article thanks!

[DayTraderDad]

Interesting valuation of R1,08 based on your analysis of the current Financials. Personally, I find it impossible to fully trust the financials of any company, considering that’s exactly how SNH got into this current predicament.
 
What I do trust, is my technical analysis and it says that after this correction is over or is indeed over at 430, we still need one more swing higher to complete the sequence from 194.
 
My question to you would be, are you prepared to short this share from here, based on your valuation and trading strategy?

Yes diferent people do diferent assessments and indeed these days financials dont mean much and I take them with a pinch of salt. My target price is based on valuation using the various business units share price.

When I go to the bank to borrow money they dont lend me money on my looks and popularity they lend me a certain percentage of my assets.

Anyway each to is own I am just posting so that people can make their own judgement calls. would be so sad to sit and wait for the R6 and see the price drop so fast to the R2 or R3 levels.

[DayTraderDad]

I hear you and I think your analysis is sound but we know markets discount the future , not what is now. Look at tesla , its not worth the price tag now but will it in the future, who knows.

I appreciate your math and analysis but I have been fucked so many times on being theoretical and all - another example AMC.

Maybe we will all burn and you will be right but let's wait for a couple months more and see what the other analysts say. I think there will be more and more voice in stenies as we go

Haha I rather be fucxxed by theoretical than German euphoria! I do indeed believe in Snh and know management are trying their best but sometime reality will think in. I am interested to see how excited the Germans going to be when the financials come out.

[KP7]

I think it's a great trading share with bias upwards for now. Everything is based on their news obviously. I have a core position and want to get a secondary position that I trade

 

Yes, everyone has a different objective for holding this share. Some for dividends, I’m just here for the share price and the B’s & P’s you promised when we hit R6