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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#1 Investment novice

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Posted Today, 04:39 PM

' IV High-Dose Vitamin C Success Story in COVID-19

We posted about the interesting thing about ascendis compunding pharmacy. One of the few companies to makenthis and already has deals with drs and hospital.....the compounding pharmacy....read up..
Another future and current use product as functional medicine comes to the fore..
Not all pharma make this.....

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#2 David-89

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Posted Today, 02:12 PM

Just a note...covid revenue is fantastic...but this share has value beyond covid.
May see news on a vaccine...great news. Will calm financial markets and hopefully funds running from resources will come here...in the rebalancing..

This is a cheap share with ongoing revenue. Bank the covid revenue to pay off debt. Rand strengthens...debt nornalises...strategy from ceo and company....lots to look forward to in a covid and non covid environment.

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Hi Investment Novice. I agree, this is a long term share for me. The Covid revenue pump was a bonus to me as it will allow Ascendis some stability going forward given the extra cash flows and hopefully lower debt levels.

Furthermore it seems most of the world is implementing expansionary monetary policy by cutting interest rates which will allow Ascendis to refinance their debt and drop their finance costs. Everything points towards a significant upward turn.

I see there was chatter of a possible takeover - I have no doubt Ascendis could be a potential takeover given their depressed share price and great earning potential especially with a bit of restructuring. However I don’t think this scenario is likely given the current poor economic climate. Bear in mind most acquisitions are not value creating for the acquirer, the acquisition risk is too high in the current poor and volatile economy.
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#3 Investment novice

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Posted Today, 02:00 PM

Just a note...covid revenue is fantastic...but this share has value beyond covid.
May see news on a vaccine...great news. Will calm financial markets and hopefully funds running from resources will come here...in the rebalancing..

This is a cheap share with ongoing revenue. Bank the covid revenue to pay off debt. Rand strengthens...debt nornalises...strategy from ceo and company....lots to look forward to in a covid and non covid environment.

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#4 Investment novice

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Posted Today, 12:39 PM

The share price is never predictable but we can guess ome truths...if there is valye the share will climb, if there is risk in todays enviro the price will remain deflated. Saying that the markets dont respond academically...rather than spot price look at the trend...you lose if you sell. If you set a level that you not comfortable and you reach then many advise to sell....but this should be based on your strategy of trading or investing. Many of us , me particularly am greedy for a quick buck..whoch os gambling and wrong
..we see this share as doing well...we could be wrong and the price only recovers if there is really good news...because of the big if...many wont get in now....but wtach out...if there is good news this share will fly....i like the dream of this being at r5 to r12..at 75c....now....488 million shares and remedica worth 350 usd to 400 usd..take my chances....no court cases yet...

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#5 David-89

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Posted Today, 11:41 AM

Morning chaps. I’m new to the forum.

I’ve also got a large chunk in Ascendis which I’ve had for a quite a number of months now. Currently I’m down quite a lot so I’m really hoping for some good news soon.

The company, like all health care companies, currently has a lot of potential given the pandemic. Hopefully management is taking full advantage of this to settle their debt and push the value of Remedica up if their intention is still to dispose of Remedica to settle some debt.

It baffles me that there is no upward trend in the share prices as has been the case for other health care shares in the last 6 months. Hopefully this is due to the market being cautious or simply the share value is being overlooked.

Hopefully the upcoming financial results will tell a story of management turning around Ascendis for the better.

Edited by David-89, Today, 11:43 AM.

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#6 Investment novice

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Posted Today, 11:17 AM

Some quick early morning trades usually picks up in the day. Low volume but quite interesting. Hoping these coming weeks we get more info or see more movement.
Apart from revenue and debt..debt both which are euro based and is massively problematic....i would guess market looking at strategy for remedica .... makes sense to see 50% and release 200 million euro to clear euro debt...or to refinance debt in cyprus at close to 0...perhaps a management buyout from the remedica owners of the whole of ascendis...who knows whats out there...debt is cheap and there are some really good opportunities...



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#7 Investment novice

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Posted Yesterday, 10:43 AM

Hi Andi, anyone. Do you have the latest shareholding. There is significant benefit that this entity is owned majority by institutional investors. Have seen some increase their holdings since 2018.
Pls confirm. Acquisition of this entity or even a management buyout would be at a reasonable price.

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#8 Investment novice

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Posted 09 August 2020 - 09:14 PM

I think the obvious negative is the raging debt levels that is euro based. Need accountants to guide. Euo debt at 218m and rand debt at 2b. Ascendis debt was sitting at 5 billion....but with the june sens does this now sit at 6.5 billion with rand depreciation.? Could this he the obvious reason the share is sitting at 0.75c.



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#9 Blackobar

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Posted 09 August 2020 - 06:45 PM

I hope the next results shoot the lights out and they can service their debt without having to sell Remedica.
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#10 Milo

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Posted 09 August 2020 - 02:37 PM

They busy preparing the financials. They did not want to sell Remedica previously at a low price because they know its worth more. Maybe they want the upcoming financials to do the talking. Hopefully a big pump coming soon.


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#11 Investment novice

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 05:45 PM

I agree certainly on the external influence. Interestingly the slow poison downtrend was very low volume trades and could even be from nercous individual investors who are taking prifits from previous buys at 29c to 40c. Going to gold.
The big institutional guys are still there. And its unlikely there will be a cheap acquisition or takeover. It may be discounted or even at fairvalue due to cheap debt. Aspen may be a potential buyer.but i think this could be a bidwes acquistion to complement adcock . Or could be an international player such as fuji . Japanese debt is extremely cheap and remedicas portfolio and footprint with ascendis gives an african market entry. This is absolute speculation.

I got a few shares cheap hoping the volume is due to inside info on a tuesday sens... either way.....lobe the share, dont live the debt, and certainly not a steinhof with litigation hanging over it....

Have a great weekend....and pls....if anyone has any negative info....pls post

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#12 Pilotpilot

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 05:14 PM

This share is strange. We are in the worse crisis wrt COVID and this share is moving lower as opposed to trading sideways or upwards

Either people that have allot money are playing here and driving this share down to suit there own gains or we are in store for rocky results

 

I see it as a buying opportunity:)

 

There is some share manipulation. Share price drops with 3000 volume sale . Its a pity our jse is so hopeless that they cant pick up price manipulation. This share is held majority by institutional investors and share price moving on 0.02% volume. So all abstract. I would say if there is a dip use every opportunity to buy. The only negative news would be remedica sold for 100million usd.....or something...
Everyone is pro this share. So buy the dip...

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I agree with you guys. This is one of those shares like SNH, EOH, Aveng, LON etc. where these shares have been thrown like bait to the ordinary investor. The valuations are crazy and yet the price keeps going lower. Investors keep them for years and eventually the company gets taken over, liquidated, sold off, or goes under management. 

 

I did post about this in 2 posts..... here  and here ,  if you want to read more.

 

There might, or might not be a takeover, but this share price is definitely not moving normally. As soon as I realized it, I removed it from my share list. Steinhoff has the same issue if you read the second post.

 

There is a couple of other theories that could be happening, but that is a long story.....

 

Safe trading guys 


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#13 Investment novice

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 02:23 PM

Hi. There should be a sens out , this is what we waiting on. It is cheaper for a big player to buy the shareholders out and refinance the debt and hold the assets then to go an buy remedica for a premium. Take the whole lot.

Not sure if this is a reality as even a preliminary meeting has to have a sens issued. Though there could he potential dancers.

Hypothetically. I would be happy to sell all ky shares for r10 a share. Thats 250 million euros....for the 500 million shares...cheap when you put it that way
.

250 million and debt at 200 million , big entity with a powerful balance sheet will enjoy the assets and footprint....and grow this company to the next level....


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#14 Leadingedge

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:58 PM

I am excited to finally be part of this forum, I have been watching from the sidelines for many months.

 

I am equally excited about the potential of this share, but today has caught me by surprise. I know I am an utter greenhorn when it comes to the technical aspects of share trading and assessing a company, but this does not make sense at all.

 

There is a rumour out there of a possible take-over happening behind the scenes, but it is pure speculation.

 

Maybe useless information but this is the first time since March, on the daily chart, that we are into oversold territory. Over 1.7million shares traded today already and counting.

 

Unfortunately with any company/share there will always be that aspect of what we don't know.


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#15 Investment novice

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:41 PM

Well...now more shares being traded.....who knows..
But this is true...company has good revenue end dec 2019 pre covid which was brilliant for sustainability ...and then opportunistically had covid revenue and now in the new world will have revenue for the new world....
Dont look at value of share you have....try to either hold or buy the dip.....only lose if you sell.....

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#16 DeltaHedge

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:28 PM

There is some share manipulation. Share price drops with 3000 volume sale . Its a pity our jse is so hopeless that they cant pick up price manipulation. This share is held majority by institutional investors and share price moving on 0.02% volume. So all abstract. I would say if there is a dip use every opportunity to buy. The only negative news would be remedica sold for 100million usd.....or something...
Everyone is pro this share. So buy the dip...
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Thanks for the perspective, good to know it’s such little volume creating an untrue reflection on price.
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#17 Investment novice

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:26 PM

Could also be general market sell off..time in the market......not timing.....end september you will be smiling

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#18 DeltaHedge

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:22 PM

This share is strange. We are in the worse crisis wrt COVID and this share is moving lower as opposed to trading sideways or upwards
Either people that have allot money are playing here and driving this share down to suit there own gains or we are in store for rocky results
 
I see it as a buying opportunity:)



Right now I am getting my balls handed to me on a plate, maybe insiders have info already ? Let’s hope this thing catches a bid soon.
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#19 Investment novice

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:21 PM

There is some share manipulation. Share price drops with 3000 volume sale . Its a pity our jse is so hopeless that they cant pick up price manipulation. This share is held majority by institutional investors and share price moving on 0.02% volume. So all abstract. I would say if there is a dip use every opportunity to buy. The only negative news would be remedica sold for 100million usd.....or something...
Everyone is pro this share. So buy the dip...

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#20 vishalsur

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:18 PM

This share is strange. We are in the worse crisis wrt COVID and this share is moving lower as opposed to trading sideways or upwards

Either people that have allot money are playing here and driving this share down to suit there own gains or we are in store for rocky results

 

I see it as a buying opportunity:)


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