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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#1 Investment novice

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Posted Today, 12:09 PM

Any comments on below....historically have seen when there are margin calls and lots of volune share drops....this share was hammered several times. Any voljme demand itself will cause this share to propel itself to reasonable new highs. We may even see controlled batch purchases coming theough rather than once off purchase. And this is not share manipulation.....and unlikely crdditors would have imposed a restriction on management retention strategies....think about it. I got a few more at 79c. Hapoy with my volumes. Ready for agm....
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#2 Investment novice

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Posted Today, 10:30 AM

Zanme from your mouth to angels ears...
Analyst friend and investor said company have commited to institutional investors and shareholders to support share value recovery.

This can be achieved in short term through the remunration committee which may be discussed at agm.

There is a share incentive for management and a share buy opportunity where the comoany will buy 1 sgare for wvery share and empliyee purchases through the scheme. This is similar to other companies. He says short term aside from all katters the company may need to lock in a buy of potentially 10 to 20 million shares which will create an upward pressure on the share recovery. He sees r2.20 as a mid december reality drivem mainly through employee investment requirements. Also keen that post agm we will have more info. Unlikely downside pist agm as all the negative is already priced in. Advises ignore the small volume movements however use that as a buy opportunity if you trading with an exit of r2 safely mid december.....all of this is his opinion......he also beleives jse going to lose significant market share if there are no bourse reforms and changes to protect and benefit shareholders..
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#3 David-89

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Posted Yesterday, 08:16 PM

We currently post anonomously. But i am happy to sign a proxy to anyone here to help get the voice louder re our initiative.


Also happy to sign a proxy.
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#4 AnbanM

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Posted Yesterday, 06:24 PM

We currently post anonomously. But i am happy to sign a proxy to anyone here to help get the voice louder re our initiative.


also happy to support this...
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#5 Investment novice

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Posted Yesterday, 05:21 PM

We currently post anonomously. But i am happy to sign a proxy to anyone here to help get the voice louder re our initiative.
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#6 David-89

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Posted Yesterday, 02:46 PM

Great iniative

My input is as follows.

Managements bonuses must be granted in the form of share appreciation rights and will vest only when certain criteria are met. Settled in shares. The excercise price must be based on the weighted average share price for the year around 2.50. Mark joined when the share price was over R4. So only if the share price exceeds R2.50 will there be value for them. It aligns their interest with ours and is important.

They need to be more creative in keeping the prized asset than to sell it. Obtain financing at cheaper rates.

Management must use existing cash flows to pay down debt to reduce interest.

They must reduce head office costs. R140 million is head office spend is for a centralized conglomerate not a decentralized holding company.

Remedica must not be sold.

Im not sure what they earning but their salaries must be benchmarked with similar size companies. The incentive for them must be to create value for us not bankers and themselves.


That’s a fantastic renumeration policy. It will surely light a fire under management to get going and bring value back to shareholders. I will most definitely be in attendance at the AGM and will pay particular attention to anything involving share rights.
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#7 Zanme

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Posted Yesterday, 02:18 PM

We should prepare for agm and raise actions for management to consoder which drives the share price.
Bonusses must be paid with shares. Ascendis hence has to buy the share in the market and this will drive the price due to volume demand . Long twrm incentives for ceo and senior management to be aligned again with share tranches .

Not sure how many shares m sardi has , and if he here short term to sort disposal and take a bonus on the turnaround.

We should ask specifically about q1 performance and whther there has been an inctease in demand and revenue to meet covid peak 2 ...

Etc....what else people.......


Great iniative

My input is as follows.

Managements bonuses must be granted in the form of share appreciation rights and will vest only when certain criteria are met. Settled in shares. The excercise price must be based on the weighted average share price for the year around 2.50. Mark joined when the share price was over R4. So only if the share price exceeds R2.50 will there be value for them. It aligns their interest with ours and is important.

They need to be more creative in keeping the prized asset than to sell it. Obtain financing at cheaper rates.

Management must use existing cash flows to pay down debt to reduce interest.

They must reduce head office costs. R140 million is head office spend is for a centralized conglomerate not a decentralized holding company.

Remedica must not be sold.

Im not sure what they earning but their salaries must be benchmarked with similar size companies. The incentive for them must be to create value for us not bankers and themselves.
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#8 Investment novice

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Posted Yesterday, 12:53 PM

We should prepare for agm and raise actions for management to consoder which drives the share price.
Bonusses must be paid with shares. Ascendis hence has to buy the share in the market and this will drive the price due to volume demand . Long twrm incentives for ceo and senior management to be aligned again with share tranches .

Not sure how many shares m sardi has , and if he here short term to sort disposal and take a bonus on the turnaround.

We should ask specifically about q1 performance and whther there has been an inctease in demand and revenue to meet covid peak 2 ...

Etc....what else people.......
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#9 Investment novice

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 05:21 PM

Rediculous share price droos additional 5 percent by one trade of 36 shares,,,, then again close of day......this must be the most irritating asoect of this share...inxluding the fact that we can simultaneoulsy manipulate the share by buying and selling betwen a hand ful of parties....i will by 50 shares tomorrow at 82 c at beginning of trade and similarly to try drive the price..just not sure how to do that, existing okatform does not allow me..just limits...

Well....absolutely shocker...but an opportunuty to get more shares ...

Jse is hopeless....
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#10 Investment novice

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 02:45 PM

Zanme...think the robust h1 and cash rich may allow a 50% disposal and significamt dent reduction. To your point...but eithwr way dispose completely, dispose 50%, or sell ascendis totality....either way we sitting well in all 3.....but there requires drastic funding and reduction of debt....the odds are stacked for us. Expect some info at agm...or a favouraboe sens updating progress
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#11 Zanme

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 02:05 PM

Not in this case. Debt will come down. If they manage costs and pay down debt in a disciplined manner. They can refinance the debt. The company is coping to pay a 14 percent interest rate. If its reduced there is very little risk.


The cost to dispose of it will be R200 million alone gone into thin air. Head office costs can come down. They can solve this without selling it.
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#12 Zanme

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 02:03 PM

Agreed Remedica is the crowned jewel and will be good for growth if kept. I think shareholders want it gone for 2 reasons.

1. The sale will reduce debt and have an immediate large impact on the share price - Investors hoping for a quick buck are obviously keen on the capital gains here.

2. The large debt creates uncertainty and the possibility of liquidation where shareholders will get nothing. So it’s more risky for them to have Remedica as this will be coupled with the burden of debt. The risk averse would prefer to have no debt and little growth potential as opposed to high debt and large growth potential.


Not in this case. Debt will come down. If they manage costs and pay down debt in a disciplined manner. They can refinance the debt. The company is coping to pay a 14 percent interest rate. If its reduced there is very little risk.
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#13 David-89

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 01:52 PM

I dont understand why you guys support selling of assets that are growing.

I did a calc if they continue growing EBITDA by 20 percent for 5 years. Pay down debt as they go along. Debt should half in 5 years. Earnings should be around R2 billion. On a 10 pe you looking at R20 billion valuation. This CEO has his own agenda. I don't like it. Nothing can justify an asset. Even at the 14 percent interest the business can grow to this. He comes from private equity so he knows about this and yet he is promoting the sale. It questions his intention. Why doesn't he have shares in the company either. I recall that part of this business was sold or going to be sold to Nedbank Capital this guy worked there. No investor in their right mind will sell a growing asset for nothing. He can reduce head office costs as well. They should be able to refinance or even cover the high interest rate. If he cares about shareholders than i cant see why this should not be worth R16 plus in 5 years. Provided that they don't sell Remedica.


Agreed Remedica is the crowned jewel and will be good for growth if kept. I think shareholders want it gone for 2 reasons.

1. The sale will reduce debt and have an immediate large impact on the share price - Investors hoping for a quick buck are obviously keen on the capital gains here.

2. The large debt creates uncertainty and the possibility of liquidation where shareholders will get nothing. So it’s more risky for them to have Remedica as this will be coupled with the burden of debt. The risk averse would prefer to have no debt and little growth potential as opposed to high debt and large growth potential.
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#14 Zanme

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 01:36 PM

https://www.news24.c...growth-20200930

Even with the sale of Remedica there will still be huge growth potential in Africa. The article has some detailed information on this.

Also IN, my valuation has not changed significantly since the last time. It might have even got better.

Last years EBITDA was close to 1.2 billion. Remedica was 0.73 billion. So let's assume an EBITDA of between 500 and 700 Million after the sale of Remedica for 2021. The sale of remedica should eliminate all debt.
So a debt free company producing an EBITDA of 0.5 to 0.7 billion with good growth potential should have an EBITDA multiple of between 6 and 10.
This would give us a value of around 3 and 7 billion.
Assuming the lowest valuation we would have a share price of atleast 6 rands in my opinion.

Again this is just my personal view and the valuation I use is just a high level rule of thumb.
But as previously mentioned I personally still see great value here.


I dont understand why you guys support selling of assets that are growing.

I did a calc if they continue growing EBITDA by 20 percent for 5 years. Pay down debt as they go along. Debt should half in 5 years. Earnings should be around R2 billion. On a 10 pe you looking at R20 billion valuation. This CEO has his own agenda. I don't like it. Nothing can justify an asset. Even at the 14 percent interest the business can grow to this. He comes from private equity so he knows about this and yet he is promoting the sale. It questions his intention. Why doesn't he have shares in the company either. I recall that part of this business was sold or going to be sold to Nedbank Capital this guy worked there. No investor in their right mind will sell a growing asset for nothing. He can reduce head office costs as well. They should be able to refinance or even cover the high interest rate. If he cares about shareholders than i cant see why this should not be worth R16 plus in 5 years. Provided that they don't sell Remedica.
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#15 Investment novice

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 12:19 PM

Interesting to see the rand stregnthening ....be good to see if this imoacts share attractiveness later today and end of day....would expect some positive movement and re trace friday close....
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#16 Investment novice

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Posted 22 November 2020 - 08:09 AM

Very interesting weekend...had a few conversations tryimg to see what the excitement could be...aprt from simple market demand here are some interesting business points which the discussions end on.....rand stregnthening , revenue for h1 will beat previous year and all businesses pumping, operational overheads managed. Cash flow is strong....remedica exit on the cards...many felt feedback on the process itself and the fact that first round duscussions with a few interested parties will commence soon or has commenced and we should expect the sens on just the process. The potential sens update expected soon is going to result in a nice pump....
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#17 Investment novice

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Posted 20 November 2020 - 09:35 AM

Andi. This could be a r1 per year per share or even a 30c to 50c per year dividend paying share. Hence if we forward looking this is a great value share and dividend share potentially at the price we can get in now. And with dividend tax as favourable as it is....makes this attractive for those who believe on the dream.....alterntaively we crash and burn and get liquadated
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#18 Investment novice

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Posted 20 November 2020 - 08:53 AM

Thanks Andi. Great we are aligned.
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#19 andi222

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Posted 20 November 2020 - 07:56 AM

https://www.news24.c...growth-20200930

Even with the sale of Remedica there will still be huge growth potential in Africa. The article has some detailed information on this.

Also IN, my valuation has not changed significantly since the last time. It might have even got better.

Last years EBITDA was close to 1.2 billion. Remedica was 0.73 billion. So let's assume an EBITDA of between 500 and 700 Million after the sale of Remedica for 2021. The sale of remedica should eliminate all debt.
So a debt free company producing an EBITDA of 0.5 to 0.7 billion with good growth potential should have an EBITDA multiple of between 6 and 10.
This would give us a value of around 3 and 7 billion.
Assuming the lowest valuation we would have a share price of atleast 6 rands in my opinion.

Again this is just my personal view and the valuation I use is just a high level rule of thumb.
But as previously mentioned I personally still see great value here.
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#20 Investment novice

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Posted 20 November 2020 - 02:59 AM

Have tried trolling through the various platforms, and available newz


The following may contribute somewhat:

1. Potential transactions of ascendis and remedica. Have not found anything substantive and investor relations have not respinded to some open questions. Nor have they shared their investor roadshow presentation which i requested.

2. Revenue. All units are firing and the covid and non covid revenue we saw in h2 2020 financials will be exceeded double digits by h1 2021. Especially since h1 expenses for building in supply chain resilience has well prepared the destribution of pharmaceuticals , consumables , ppe etc.

3. Operational efficiency in h2 should see improved margins

4. Accounts swept end of h1 2021 and some debt reduction in euros.

5. Rand stregnthening significantly reduces debt exposure. Think this could have been the most significant reason in h1 2021.

6. Other reasons...institutional investors mopping up, or other people in the know mopping up available volume. Shares had dried up and now seem available at the higher pricing and there is a willingness to buy the share at a higher pruce daily due to the renewed confidence. Sepf perpetuating...demand driven also by speculators as this os a cheap share.

7. Not sure if there are international investors buying here due to the renewed confidence.

8. Shorts being closed. Not sure what percentage of shares are shorted. If anyo e has any ideas.

9. Vaccines will require consumables and potentially covid animal vaccines may see ascendis in the vaccine game. Many articled on culling of mink amd other food related security concerns.


Negatives

The negative is the companies ability to service debt and the penalty increases.
Selling off remedica perceived as value destruction but the debt to equity valuation does not support this.
Company still in limbo with the debt overhang and market not seeing other growth initiatives coming through.
Dividend policy
Company share price is vulnerable to a big institutional investor downsizing.


My projections for 2021 full year ebitda now close to r2.0b rand with SA and africa contributing an additional 100m to ebitda, remedica an additional 150m to 200m, and sunwave and farmilider another 50to 70m. No impairments and postive eps for 2021. Hence considering a favourable sale and debt repayment. There is still value for shareholders and dividends already in 2021. This is an extremely high risk share with high returns if the sale is achievable. If the market believes a disposal is achievable then we will already see this share at r1.30 to r2.00 and then depending on disposal and first dividend may see share back at r4 in the next 12 months ......hence if ascendis is up for sale in totality expect the first offer at r4 per share and increased to r6 or even r8 per share.


This speculative dream may be driving excitement as well



Andi looking forward to your valuations...
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