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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#1 Tolly12

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Posted Yesterday, 05:10 PM

By the end of April Ascendis shoud communicate which agreement has been defined with the lenders.

Blantyre and L1 Health should convert part or all their debt into equity.

Ascendis Management then need to obtain shareholders approval.

 

In your opinion what will be offered to current shareholders in terms of equity? Current shareholders value (market capitalization) is 280 Million Rand.

 

Trying to obtain an approval offering current value (280 Million Rand) won't be easy.


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#2 Investment novice

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 12:53 PM

April 1 reg...11m shorted on this share. Not a big amaount. Keem to see if those shorts are closed.
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#3 Investment novice

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 04:47 PM

Hi. I stand for correction. I thought Bharti Harie (50) was their endorsed director...will re check.
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#4 Shi

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 04:28 PM

Wdb exit ..large volume shares mopped up...caused price pressure...cant be that they have inside info through their representative board director....too risky to trade now..so dump motivated by a non loss related factor...maybe a tax benefit. The corollary will hold that it is probable good news but they prefer the benefit of an exit..speculation..no justification...large volume shares and the price is above 50c....someone other thsn retail is mopping up ..hoping f9r the sens on sgb or jpmorgan or meryl lunch hitting 5%........

 

Who is their board member? I don't see it stated here https://ascendisheal.../board-members/ under any of the board members' profiles.


Edited by Shi, 07 April 2021 - 04:29 PM.

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#5 Investment novice

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 02:21 PM

Wdb exit ..large volume shares mopped up...caused price pressure...cant be that they have inside info through their representative board director....too risky to trade now..so dump motivated by a non loss related factor...maybe a tax benefit. The corollary will hold that it is probable good news but they prefer the benefit of an exit..speculation..no justification...large volume shares and the price is above 50c....someone other thsn retail is mopping up ..hoping f9r the sens on sgb or jpmorgan or meryl lunch hitting 5%........
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#6 LarryK

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 10:42 AM

Hello there mr asc
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#7 sommerso

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Posted 06 April 2021 - 04:18 PM

Here's hoping for a mini run :) 


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#8 LarryK

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Posted 06 April 2021 - 01:28 PM

Thanks IN, I was going to ask if anyone had an opinion on the mini pump.

I bought some more this morning at 50c - let's hope we will start a nice run up now
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#9 Investment novice

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Posted 06 April 2021 - 01:21 PM

Nice pump...

SA assets high value. There is a post somewhere that just one product line..brand solal is worth more than r250m...thats the market cap........

Wonder what the individual values of the other brands are and what they would fetch in 2022 once the dust settles....for an exit...


Enjoy. Lets hope this is the beginning of good times and each set of news reinforces positive sentiment
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#10 Investment novice

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Posted 05 April 2021 - 09:11 AM

Cool thanks....any new would be by sens .... 3 weeks and we have the extension of foreberance agreement which is the first hurdle to jump over missing business rescue.
By then we would already get the sens of the proposed structure to vote on. Asc may propose alternatives or one way forward only...

Between now and then or after we may get the sens of the sale of the non core....not sure which is beter to get news before or after...think before as we need good news....and helps better value the business and risk by the time shareholder vote comes in..

By end april we in less risk scenario which would be good for all investors....

Most of the news papers talks about sharehomders not supporting and we end in business rescue...due to the sens closing sentences . ...but that was really to ensure sharehokders vote uninimously in support preventing business rescue.....at current pricing any deal structure will drive multiple of where we currently at.....

Hoping thougg the media now is more though provoking rather than regurgitating...like the snh dooms day polly posts
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#11 Daytrader01

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Posted 05 April 2021 - 07:42 AM

Not that I know of, just like to read what is being said
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#12 Investment novice

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 10:48 PM

Do someone have access to what was said of Sunday mail



Is there further news on ascendis?. I thought we should be upto date with the latest....???
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#13 Daytrader01

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 10:33 AM

Do someone have access to what was said of Sunday mail
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#14 Zanme

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Posted 03 April 2021 - 02:15 PM


Those are similar words you used to describe Louis du Preez when Steinhoff share price was at 80 cent rand. Hope your words will have the same lucky effect on Ascendis share price in the incoming weeks.


Hope so too maybe it gets them to refocus so you should be thanking me
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#15 DeltaHedge

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 09:45 PM


Those are similar words you used to describe Louis du Preez when Steinhoff share price was at 80 cent rand. Hope your words will have the same lucky effect on Ascendis share price in the incoming weeks.


I just doubled my holdings due to her words
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#16 Tolly12

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 08:23 PM

Truly confusing. The guy has achieved nothing concrete. I asked him about why is the head office costs almost in line with the market cap of the company and he couldn't give me a proper answer. He seems like a more down to earth guy. But maybe that is his skill to think that he is helping you but back at the ranch he is helping his buddies out at the banks and setting himself up to sell some of these prized assets and benefit in another way.
Not sure how to read it. I like the fact that he seems to understand the business and is articulate. But the numbers don't say the same thing. The interest cost just doesn't make sense the head office costs as well. Surely you can refinance this there are so many banks in South Africa alone that are hungry for a return. But Ascendis is paying 15 percent in a time when interest rates are at rock bottom. It doesn't add up for me logically. So until I see some better numbers. I don't trust him and question his motives here.



Those are similar words you used to describe Louis du Preez when Steinhoff share price was at 80 cent rand. Hope your words will have the same lucky effect on Ascendis share price in the incoming weeks.
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#17 Zanme

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 08:05 PM



I have immense respect from Mark Sardi. His educated and experienced. He has done an amaxing job to undo the crap by the previous ceos and the board. His hands were tied. To have remedied challenges with disrupted supply chain and respond and exploit opportunities during covid and keeping the lights on has been phenomenal. He is articulate and understands his business and his exposure as head of nedbank investments- private equity exposure and understanding of deals gives me great comfort he is the right person for this job and to salvage value. He earns meagre or relative. His payout comes from getting this share to r6. And sets himself up for a much bigger ceo position. He has alot to lose and alot to gain.

This is my opinion.


Truly confusing. The guy has achieved nothing concrete. I asked him about why is the head office costs almost in line with the market cap of the company and he couldn't give me a proper answer. He seems like a more down to earth guy. But maybe that is his skill to think that he is helping you but back at the ranch he is helping his buddies out at the banks and setting himself up to sell some of these prized assets and benefit in another way.
Not sure how to read it. I like the fact that he seems to understand the business and is articulate. But the numbers don't say the same thing. The interest cost just doesn't make sense the head office costs as well. Surely you can refinance this there are so many banks in South Africa alone that are hungry for a return. But Ascendis is paying 15 percent in a time when interest rates are at rock bottom. It doesn't add up for me logically. So until I see some better numbers. I don't trust him and question his motives here.
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#18 Investment novice

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 02:53 PM

Mark is a con. Why does a company that is earning so much have to pay such high interest rates? His back to getting consultants banks involved to cost us more. Sounds familiar just like Steinhoff. I honestly believe that this stuff is so logical its not funny. The complication is in the operations which seem to be sound. Yet for over 1 and a half years he has achieved nothing. The diluted shareholder base works in his favor as well. Why hasn't he taken any share options. South African management at companies are equivalent to their counterparts in government only there for their own interest.




I have immense respect from Mark Sardi. His educated and experienced. He has done an amaxing job to undo the crap by the previous ceos and the board. His hands were tied. To have remedied challenges with disrupted supply chain and respond and exploit opportunities during covid and keeping the lights on has been phenomenal. He is articulate and understands his business and his exposure as head of nedbank investments- private equity exposure and understanding of deals gives me great comfort he is the right person for this job and to salvage value. He earns meagre or relative. His payout comes from getting this share to r6. And sets himself up for a much bigger ceo position. He has alot to lose and alot to gain.

This is my opinion.
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#19 Investment novice

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 02:53 PM

Mark is a con. Why does a company that is earning so much have to pay such high interest rates? His back to getting consultants banks involved to cost us more. Sounds familiar just like Steinhoff. I honestly believe that this stuff is so logical its not funny. The complication is in the operations which seem to be sound. Yet for over 1 and a half years he has achieved nothing. The diluted shareholder base works in his favor as well. Why hasn't he taken any share options. South African management at companies are equivalent to their counterparts in government only there for their own interest.




I have immense respect from Mark Sardi. His educated and experienced. He has done an amaxing job to undo the crap by the previous ceos and the board. His hands were tied. To have remedied challenges with disrupted supply chain and respond and exploit opportunities during covid and keeping the lights on has been phenomenal. He is articulate and understands his business and his exposure as head of nedbank investments- private equity exposure and understanding of deals gives me great comfort he is the right person for this job and to salvage value. He earns meagre or relative. His payout comes from getting this share to r6. And sets himself up for a much bigger ceo position. He has alot to lose and alot to gain.

This is my opinion.
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#20 Zanme

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 12:13 PM


Based on Marks interviews on media and discussions woth institutions the predominant view to return maximal value to shareholders is to have an entity that is free of debt and where asc has full control. The belief is this structure leads to a better valuation multiple when trading or when acquired.


I am certainly comforted by the SA strategy and growth including the cleanup with opertaions and othe cost cutting initiatives coming through. I was very surprised that both ceo and cfo talked to returning money to shareholders even in the form of dividends and on the other hand concluding saying dont vote and you get zero. Media has been asleep.

Ceo and cfo were calm controled and knowldgeable. They were articulate and decisive in a very vague and difficult position. The body language choice of wording suggests their own anxieties and stresses are controled amd thwre is alot more positive in the background.

With that i have the end of April- announcement may result in a pump due to the most importamt hurdle being crossed...which is agremement between parties on the way forward. I see this as more significant than the june timeline and shareholder vote as this will guide many on the future- release fears and support valuation.


So r1.50 is the resistance for april news and we may get there before as noted with snh 2 weeks before disclosure the pump was on..leaks...
Sens on disposal refucing debt further r500m may also be announced. . This month...supporting r1.50..

Potentially a few days after april announcement we may see a pump to r2 or higher depending on what the predominant model is.

If i hedge on one model....unfortunately dispose all of europe to cover 90% of all debt and other expenses....we own all of SA assets and have debt r500m working capital and full control.if this os signed by june and presented as predominant. We could have deal wrappedup by h2 results.

Whats left would be ASC with continued support from institutions. A growth strategy focussing on additional pharma piprlines that we access from relationships with farmilida and remedica.....

This entity if i link to Andis posts...would definately command a multiple valuation.

This model would be growth and value accretive. And my modest hope is for this to be a r6 share until first dividend declared h1 2022. I initially expected first div by h2 2022- but ceo and cfo have their own share kickers and performance incentives. H1 divided even if just 10c to 30c will create renewed confidence and then r10 realiseable. By end 2022 h2. And 2023 we would see the share breach r10 if the company demsonstartes growth.....

My fear would be a acquisition consideration at r6 by dec or end h1 2022. And institutions accept that.


Share currently trading at 48c. None of our posts are buy instructions. Its an expression of my owm delusional views. And as you can see very far from 48c hence nonsensical.


Mark is a con. Why does a company that is earning so much have to pay such high interest rates? His back to getting consultants banks involved to cost us more. Sounds familiar just like Steinhoff. I honestly believe that this stuff is so logical its not funny. The complication is in the operations which seem to be sound. Yet for over 1 and a half years he has achieved nothing. The diluted shareholder base works in his favor as well. Why hasn't he taken any share options. South African management at companies are equivalent to their counterparts in government only there for their own interest.
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