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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#1 Investment novice

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Posted Today, 08:08 AM

Asc has lots of legroom and we going to see vultures come in to take the company in totality as there is lots of lockef in value. There are potentially a few more competing bids to come...r2. Is the target for the next 2 weeks. Thats another 100% premium where we currently at.
50 million shares traded last week. Potentially a hostile takeover on the cards...so may be a positive uowards trend and still to ride this boat. Really a hot share currently with risk off the table and no litigation pending.
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#2 David-89

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Posted 14 October 2021 - 10:05 AM

For the last year I've said as soon as I break-even I'm going to sell out but now with all the excitement I'm considering freeing up cash to increase my ASC holding. So much for me sticking to my strategy :D


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#3 Tolly12

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Posted 14 October 2021 - 10:01 AM

So with yesterday's update Ascendis 2.0 won't be a company with 12 Million € as EBITDA and about 30 Million € as debt.

 

 

Ascendis 2.0 will be a company with 13-14 Million € as EBITDA and about zero debt.

 

 

Normally company with zero debt (very rare cases) trade at 10 times the EBITDA, minumum.

 

Now Ascendis is trading at 1.8 times that potential EBITDA.

 

Now let's wait for Pharma division sales info.

 

A new company is going to born.


Edited by Tolly12, 14 October 2021 - 10:06 AM.

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#4 LarryK

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Posted 14 October 2021 - 03:36 AM

Ps one more thing - if this company is sorted out I will probably hang on until end 2022 earliest. Same as with Snh
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#5 LarryK

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Posted 14 October 2021 - 03:35 AM

Looking at 18 million shares traded yesterday, very positive

There were some big offers of 1 million shares so yes whales are jumping in.

If we can get to around R1 I think next resistance is around R1,20 and then should be possible to get to R2

Anyway, I’m just an idiot that took a risk so don’t take my words very seriously
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#6 Investment novice

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 09:16 PM

Pharma valued on its assets rather than ebitda. Massive pipeline and big money. Unlikely asc can exploit this amd hemve we sitting on assets r500 to 700m genrating minimal positive ebitda. The roe is rediculous. The unlock flips this company. Now you have absolute zero debt- positive vash for special dividend perhaps 30c to 50c and 2 solid entities which can generate r150 to 200 m or more...in the right hands.. . The qiagen lab business and a number of the lines are under peforming.....8x multiple....r2 for remainder or r3....i think the market will realise this and to your point dont exit because of fatigue....we in for a bidding war.......should see a number of sens coming through now .....and even more likely a potential hostile takeover with majority shareholder aligning and taking control wanting all the value. We may see some ups and downs woth profit taking but r2 is my target too short term...
Big whales buying the shares mopping up.retailers.....this is not a pump.and dump....
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#7 Billions

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 08:28 PM

If i recal pharma had a great q4 aswell as there was another loss making divission that was sold off, i cant recal full details. thus farma should be viewed as profitable going forward... i think the sale will cover all remaining debt.. pharma has some key lines and certain dossiers if i read correctly all of which are above my pay grade to understand evaluations on ... so sell the future not the past and we will be good as a debt free compnay imho... after 19 months i am in the green.... so beginning to trust the process much more now
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#8 Daytrader01

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 04:41 PM

What will the business be worth in share price after the sale
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#9 David-89

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 04:12 PM

https://www.sharenet...eq=16&scode=ASC

 

So had a look. Ascendis Pharma is part of the 3 units we were left with after recap.

 

Ascendis Pharma has a portfolio of well-known brands and a simple business model. The top 10 brands
account for approximately 85% of sales. All brands are owned 100% and operate under an outsourced
supply chain. The product pipeline comprises over 300 dossiers of which less than 50 are currently marketed.
The majority of Pharma’s sales are in the gastrointestinal tract and cough and cold therapeutic categories.

 

Hopefully they sold this for a couple of BILLION - One can dream

 

Pharma had a negative EBITDA if I'm not mistaken so I suppose this is good from a valuation perspective


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#10 JR7800

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 04:09 PM

Sale of Ascendis Pharma

 

https://www.moneyweb...dium=Indicators

 

Was this part of the Recap or is this part of the assets we were suppose to keep in the new company?

 

At this point I don't really care as long as they pay me my money......

 

https://www.sharenet...eq=16&scode=ASC

 

So had a look. Ascendis Pharma is part of the 3 units we were left with after recap.

 

Ascendis Pharma has a portfolio of well-known brands and a simple business model. The top 10 brands
account for approximately 85% of sales. All brands are owned 100% and operate under an outsourced
supply chain. The product pipeline comprises over 300 dossiers of which less than 50 are currently marketed.
The majority of Pharma’s sales are in the gastrointestinal tract and cough and cold therapeutic categories.

 

Hopefully they sold this for a couple of BILLION - One can dream


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#11 JR7800

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 03:45 PM

Sale of Ascendis Pharma

 

https://www.moneyweb...dium=Indicators

 

Was this part of the Recap or is this part of the assets we were suppose to keep in the new company?

 

At this point I don't really care as long as they pay me my money......


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#12 JR7800

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 03:45 PM

Sale of Ascendis Pharma

 

https://www.moneyweb...dium=Indicators

 

Was this part of the Recap or is this part of the assets we were suppose to keep in the new company?

 

At this point I don't really care as long as they pay me my money......


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#13 Poor Dad

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 03:17 PM

Keep holding this share, good things to come...
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#14 David-89

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 02:25 PM

Seems market excitement has dissipated and volumes dwindled. Hopefully a little more of a run up tomorrow though. 

Nice to be wrong :lol:


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#15 David-89

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 11:43 AM

Good volumes today

 

Seems market excitement has dissipated and volumes dwindled. Hopefully a little more of a run up tomorrow though. 


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#16 LarryK

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 10:06 AM

Good volumes today
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#17 David-89

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 09:55 AM

Yeah I’m holding to R2 then decide.
R2.80 would be great!

Just got back into the green.

 

Also just went green...I wonder what is causing this surge today, hopefully due to a leak and not a pump and dump.


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#18 LarryK

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 09:54 AM

Yeah I’m holding to R2 then decide.
R2.80 would be great!

Just got back into the green.
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#19 Africa1962

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 09:35 AM

Quite a significant run up in the past 2 or so weeks. I'm breaking even very soon if the momentum continues, to be honest I might just sell when I break even. This share has been a bit too volatile for even my "risk-loving" appetite.

 

I am going to hold on...read somewhere that a common "mistake" by investors that are tired of a low performing share is to sell as soon as it starts turning green.....it could be a long term growth...who knows....I am hoping it is a sustained growth and not a pump and dump

I unfortunately work on gut more than anything else.....


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#20 David-89

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Posted 13 October 2021 - 09:15 AM

Quite a significant run up in the past 2 or so weeks. I'm breaking even very soon if the momentum continues, to be honest I might just sell when I break even. This share has been a bit too volatile for even my "risk-loving" appetite.


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