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#1 soutie

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Posted Yesterday, 01:02 PM

R35 level breached...Keeping my cash....


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#2 Spell Jammer

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 10:07 AM

The hedge is a good thing me thinks even if slightly loss making me thinks....Efficiencies can be found to reduce the loss...

The big financiers that are into Sasol for Billions want some certainty & this gives them some...A small step in the right direction.

Going long on a re-test & STRONG HOLD of the R35 level...Fingers X'sd

All depends on how long there is an oversupply of cheap oil with low demand as a result of prolonged lock downs and geopolitics. 


Edited by Spell Jammer, 31 March 2020 - 10:08 AM.

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#3 soutie

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 10:00 AM

The hedge is a good thing me thinks even if slightly loss making me thinks....Efficiencies can be found to reduce the loss...

The big financiers that are into Sasol for Billions want some certainty & this gives them some...A small step in the right direction.

Going long on a re-test & STRONG HOLD of the R35 level...Fingers X'sd


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#4 Spell Jammer

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 09:18 AM

Not looking good. If they are hedging at $32 a barrel and we see $10-$18 oil, does this mean we could see this share potentially hitting R10-R15 come April? Sasol breaks even at $35 a barrel, and oil is now at $26,82 a barrel.

 

SASOL LIMITED: Credit Rating and Oil Hedging Update, and Cautionary Statement *SEES $10M A YR INCREASE ON FINANCE COSTS AFTER RATINGS *PUTS OIL HEDGES IN PLACE FOR 80% OF Q4 SYNFUELS PRODUCTIONat approximately US$32 per barrel. Crude oil hedging execution will continue for the next 12 months, while US$/ZAR and ethane hedging programmes have been

executed for the next twelve month period  *SHAREHOLDERS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION (Also see SENS for details)


Edited by Spell Jammer, 31 March 2020 - 09:27 AM.

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#5 soutie

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Posted 27 March 2020 - 10:33 AM

Global storage soon to be maxed out....!


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#6 Investment novice

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 09:14 PM

Hopefully but don't be surprised massive stockpiles from lock downs and oil price goes the other way.....we still in for a few bounces....

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#7 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 03:00 PM

$23-50 Crude Oil support held and tested 3 times today on 5 min intervals.

 

Sasol broke short term resistance as well today, and everything is looking promising for a recovery to R65-00.


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#8 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 08:32 AM

$24-08 for Crude Oil Futures is a real significant support level today on the hourly.

 

If this level holds throughout today, we should see Sasol rally in the days to come.


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#9 Pilotpilot

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 01:23 PM

 Hi Pilot, has your program factored in slowing economic demand which will drive down oil demand and thus prices and the fact that countries will literally run out of storage space to store Oil reserves that they are procuring at these low prices?

 

Hi Spell Jammer

 

Ye.. I hear you about the storage and the low oil price. At the moment it is not looking good, but the market is always looking ahead and that is what the program does. It does not factor in slowing economic demand, but rather takes an individual look at each share and its projected future price.  

 

I posted on the 10th of March (@R69) that there was still no support for Sasol and that the trading range was huge between R26 - R208. It did get to the R26 and even below.

 

http://www.sharechat...e-4#entry291183

 

The program picks up where there is support and resistance, and where buyers are willing to buy and sellers think it is overpriced. This has been the first real support since it fell from R318/share at the beginning of the year (6Jan). It has been a tremendous drop to say the least, and there has to be some point where the big boys say, "Ok, this is where we get in".

 

Looking forward to 1 year from now. The world economy might have gone through 2-3 quarters of recession and dealing with the aftermath of Covid-19. Several oil producers might have closed their least profitable mines to stay ahead of the low oil price. Some producers might even go into lock-down, and not produce any oil, which should see oil prices recover.

 

Sasol has around R340/share in nett asset value. (I stand to be corrected). It is trading at nearly a 95% discount to their NAV. That is crazy in itself.

 

With lock-downs announced all over the world, we might not see the amounts of oil produced as before. 

With the South African lock-down, we are one of the largest producers of Gold and Platinum, and I know for sure that after 21 days of non-mining, the Gold and Platinum prices will be in rocket mode. I can now understand why the Platinum price has gained so much momentum after Ramaphosa made the announcement 2 days ago.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 25 March 2020 - 01:27 PM.

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#10 Spell Jammer

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 11:23 AM

More detailed analysis in this column. If we do see $10 to a barrel oil, and with producers scaling down production due to storage psace issues, would this mean that we could expect the SOL share price to touch R10-R18 should this happen?

 

 


Oil Majors Are Preparing For $10 Oil

By Nick Cunningham - Mar 23, 2020, 8:00 PM CDT

 

The wave of oil industry spending cuts continues, with the majors now announcing significant reductions to spending as oil remains stuck in the $20s.  Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday that it would cut spending by 20 percent, or about $5 billion, and also suspend its share buyback plan. French oil giant Total SA and Norway’s Equinor announced similar moves.

ExxonMobil and Chevron have suggested they too would be axing their budgets, with Exxon under particular pressure. Goldman Sachs estimates that Chevron needs $50 per barrel in order to cover spending and its dividend. ExxonMobil, on the other hand, needs something like $70. 

The majors are relatively more insulated from the downturn than small and medium-sized shale drillers because they have downstream refining and petrochemical assets that have typically performed somewhat better than upstream units when prices fall. Refineries, for instance, spend less on oil during the downturn, and low prices also translate into a boost in sales of refined products. 

But the majors do not have that cushion this time around. We are in the midst of a historic meltdown – a supply crisis and a demand event with no precedent. Estimates vary, but oil consumption could be off by 10 million barrels per day (mb/d), or more. It doesn’t matter how cheap crude is, if people are not driving, flying or consuming anything aside from the bare essentials, there is no demand boost from low prices. 

 

On Monday, Exxon announced that it was cutting production at its Baton Rouge refinery, the company’s second largest in the U.S., because poor demand has filled up storage tanks. Exxon also cut 1,800 contractors from the site. In another example, a major closely-watched petrochemical project in Appalachia may not go forward as the market sours.

The first round of spending cuts from the oil industry is now visible, but a second round is beginning, according to a report from Goldman Sachs. 

Related: Canada Braces For Oil Cuts As Storage Nears Limit

“We see US oil production falling almost 1.4 mn bpd over five quarters post 2Q20 based on reduced drilling (i.e., before considering shut-ins of existing wells that are likely to be needed) with covered company capex down 35% [year-on-year] in 2020,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. 

 

However, budget revisions are not over. The slide in spending, drilling and ultimately in output could deepen as capex cuts grow more pronounced. “There is no sugar coating it, U.S. oilfield activity will collapse with oil prices well below $30 WTI,” Raymond James said on Monday. The initial round of cuts put spending at about 45 percent below 2019 levels, the bank said. “However, the declines will be far more dramatic than these initial cuts and we stress that these announcements skew towards larger cap, better hedged and capitalized operators.” 

“Total U.S. capex is likely to fall in excess of 65% with a WTI price persisting in the $20s,” the investment bank concluded. 

Rystad Energy put out a similar estimate on Monday. E&Ps are likely to cut project sanctioning by up to $131 billion, or about 68% year-on-year, according to the Oslo-based firm. “Upstream players will have to take a close look at their cost levels and investment plans to counter the financial impact of lower prices and demand. Companies have already started reducing their annual capital spending for 2020,” says Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Energy Service Research.

It's anybody’s guess how low WTI and Brent go. But more than a few analysts have pointed to the potential for storage to max out as a reason why prices have more room to fall. “[N]o one can exactly be sure that production will be shut-in fast enough to not overwhelm our ability to store oil,” JBC Energy said in a note. The firm pointed to refineries cutting processing because they are running out of storage, such as Exxon’s Baton Rouge. “In such an environment, it is as possible for Brent prices to briefly go to $10 per barrel as it was back in 1986 or 1998,” JBC concluded. 

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

 

https://oilprice.com...For-10-Oil.html

 

If we do see $10 to a barrel oil, would this mean that we could expect the SOL share price to touch R12-R18 should this happen?If we do see $10 to a barrel oil, would this mean that we could expect the SOL share price to touch R12-R18 should this happen?


Edited by Spell Jammer, 25 March 2020 - 11:27 AM.

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#11 Spell Jammer

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 11:16 AM

 

Sasol has started showing signs of a bottom. 

 

Sasol was hard hit by the oil price over the past 2 months. They have lost more than 90% of their share price from R260-00 to R24-26 after yesterdays close. Other Oil producers lost 50-65% of their value over the last 2 months. SOL had a 20% exchange rate benefit over the past 2 months.

 

My program has Sasol on a trading range of R20-R120, with R75 being the average price within the next year. It had a R50-R55 projected price until a couple of days ago, but has now increased to R75 for the 12 month projection. The risk/reward is now favourable and it is the best value buy suggested by the program. With any recovery in the Oil price and the weakening of the Rand, Sasol should get to these levels again.

 
R20-R26 seems like a good entry-level. We could re-test these levels, but for now this looks like a support level that's forming. It has broken a short term resistance level too, that shows some positive momentum.
 
The Oil price is also showing a slight recovery, which would support the SOL projection.  

 

 Hi Pilot, has your program factored in slowing economic demand which will drive down oil demand and thus prices and the fact that countries will literally run out of storage space to store Oil reserves that they are procuring at these low prices?

 


Oil price may fall to $10 a barrel as world runs out of storage space

Facilities thought to be 75% full with Saudi Arabia due to ramp up output as demand falters amid coronavirus shutdowns

Jillian Ambrose

 

Wed 25 Mar 2020 06.00 GMT Last modified on Wed 25 Mar 2020 06.03 GMT

 

 Crude oil storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma. Photograph: Nick Oxford/Reuters

 

The world may soon run out of space to store its extra oil as Saudi Arabia prepares to increase its fossil fuel production even as global demand for energy continues to fall due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

Oil storage levels across the world’s storage facilities have climbed to about three-quarters full on average since the January shutdown of major refineries in China’s industrial heartlands to stem the outbreak of the coronavirus.

The oil industry is expected to keep filling oil storage with crude in the weeks and months ahead as the pandemic’s economic contagion spreads through the rest of the world, cutting demand for natural resources including oil.

Canada may be days away from running out of storage for its domestic oil production, according to analysts at Rystad Energy, and the rest of the world may follow suit in a few months.

 
 

The analysts expect that oil-rich regions in Western Canada will need to rein in production by about 400,000 barrels of oil a day by the end of the month.

 

“Compounding the situation is the near-certainty of a steep reduction in crude-by-rail exports this year,” said Thomas Liles, an analyst at Rystad, “As well as deferral of spring maintenance at several key oil sands mining projects.”

The global oil industry may increasingly look to offshore oil tankers to store their extra crude oil, but for this to be economic it would require oil prices to fall further.

The global oil price fell to lows of $25 a barrel a last week, from more than $65 at the start of the year, and remains below $30 a barrel. Credit ratings agency S&P has warned the industry that the oil price may fall to $10 a barrel this year.

The hunt for affordable oil storage will be made more difficult after Saudi Arabia’s “vessel booking spree”, which has pushed freight rates “through the roof” in the past three weeks, the analysts said.

The world’s oversupply of oil is expected to balloon next month when an agreement between the Opec oil cartel and Russia to hold back oil production is due to end. The collapse of the deal allows Saudi Arabia, Opec’s de facto leader, to race Russia to increase oil production in a bid to grab a greater share of the market.

 

https://www.theguard...f-storage-space

 


Edited by Spell Jammer, 25 March 2020 - 11:24 AM.

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#12 soutie

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 11:07 AM

Thanks for your input mucho mucho appreciated.


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#13 Pilotpilot

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 10:27 AM

Sasol has started showing signs of a bottom. 

 

Sasol was hard hit by the oil price over the past 2 months. They have lost more than 90% of their share price from R260-00 to R24-26 after yesterdays close. Other Oil producers lost 50-65% of their value over the last 2 months. SOL had a 20% exchange rate benefit over the past 2 months.

 

My program has Sasol on a trading range of R20-R120, with R75 being the average price within the next year. It had a R50-R55 projected price until a couple of days ago, but has now increased to R75 for the 12 month projection. The risk/reward is now favourable and it is the best value buy suggested by the program. With any recovery in the Oil price and the weakening of the Rand, Sasol should get to these levels again.

 
R20-R26 seems like a good entry-level. We could re-test these levels, but for now this looks like a support level that's forming. It has broken a short term resistance level too, that shows some positive momentum.
 
The Oil price is also showing a slight recovery, which would support the SOL projection.  
 

 

 


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#14 soutie

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 09:31 AM

Reads how it is unfortunate series of events compounded by an accident & lower oil pricing....There's no mention of David Constable though just the previous joint CEO's who accepted a hospital pass...

 

The next Hollywood lawyer family maybe....The bit on the end emphasizing as such "in some instances this could be viewed as lawyer advertising"

Let's see how it play's out.


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#15 Spell Jammer

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 08:39 AM


Press Release: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Reminds Investors of Looming Deadline in the Class Action Lawsuit Against Sasol Limited (SSL)
Details   Category: Globe NewsWire News Distribution Service
24 Mar 2020
Last Updated: 24 March 2020 Published: 24 March 2020 Written by Globe NewsWire Press Releases

LOS ANGELES, March 23, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz reminds investors of the upcoming April 6, 2020 deadline to file a lead plaintiff motion in the class action filed on behalf of investors who acquired of Sasol Limited (“Sasol” or the Company”) (NYSE: SSL) securities between March 10, 2015 and January 13, 2020 inclusive (the “Class Period”).

If you are a shareholder who suffered a loss, click here to participate.

On October 27, 2014, Sasol announced the construction of an $8.1 billion ethane cracker and derivatives complex called the Lake Charles Chemicals Project (“LCCP”).

 

On June 6, 2016, Sasol reported “that the expected total capital expenditure for the [LCCP] could increase up to US $11 billion, including site infrastructure and utility improvements.” Moreover, the Company disclosed that “the estimated LCCP capital cost and extended schedule will reduce the expected project returns by approximately the same amount as the Company’s lower long-term price assumptions.”

On this news, Sasol’s American depositary receipt (“ADR”) price fell $3.53 per share, or approximately 11%, to close at $28.60 per share on June 6, 2016, thereby injuring investors.

 

On May 22, 2019, during pre-market hours, Sasol revealed that “the cost estimate for the LCCP has been revised to a range of $12.6 to $12,9 billion which includes a contingency of $300 million.”

On this news, Sasol’s ADR price fell $4.50 per share, or nearly 15%, to close at $25.64 per share on May 22, 2019, thereby injuring investors further.

On August 16, 2019, during pre-market hours, Sasol postponed its full year 2019 financial results because of “possible LCCP control weaknesses.”

On this news, Sasol’s ADR price fell $0.74 per share, or over 4%, to close at $17.67 per share on August 16, 2019, thereby injuring investors further.

On October 28, 2019, Sasol disclosed that there were “errors, omissions, and inaccuracies in the [LCCP] cost estimate” and that the highest level of management had engaged in a number of unethical and improper reporting activities.  Sasol also announced the resignation of, inter alia, its Joint Presidents and Chief Executive Officers (“CEOs”) and Senior Vice Presidents and others previously in charge of the LCCP.

 

On January 14, 2020, Sasol confirmed “an explosion and fire at its LCCP low-density polyethylene (LDPE) unit.”  Sasol stated that “[t]he unit was in the final stages of commissioning and startup when the incident occurred.”

On this news, Sasol’s ADR price fell $1.70 per share, or nearly 8%, over the following two trading days to close at $19.99 per share on January 15, 2020, thereby injuring investors further.

 

The complaint filed in this class action alleges that throughout the Class Period, Defendants made materially false and/or misleading statements, as well as failed to disclose material adverse facts about the Company’s business, operations, and prospects.  Specifically, Defendants failed to disclose to investors: (1) that Sasol had conducted insufficient due diligence into, and failed to account for multiple issues with, the LCCP, as well as the true cost of the project; (2) that construction and operation of the LCCP was consequently plagued by control weaknesses, delays, rising costs, and technical issues; (3) that these issues were exacerbated by Sasol’s top-level management, who engaged in improper and unethical behavior with respect to financial reporting for the LCCP and the project’s oversight; (4) that all of the foregoing was reasonably likely to render the LCCP significantly more expensive than disclosed and negatively impact the Company’s financial results; and (5) that as a result, the Company’s public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times.

Follow us for updates on Twitter: twitter.com/FRC_LAW.

 

If you purchased or otherwise acquired Sasol securities during the Class Period, you may move the Court no later than April 6, 2020 to request appointment as lead plaintiff in this putative class action lawsuit.  To be a member of the class action you need not take any action at this time; you may retain counsel of your choice or take no action and remain an absent member of the class action.  If you wish to learn more about this class action, or if you have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to the pending class action lawsuit, please contact Frank R. Cruz, of The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz, 1999 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1100, Los Angeles, California 90067 at 310-914-5007, by email to info@frankcruzlaw.com, or visit our website at www.frankcruzlaw.com.  If you inquire by email please include your mailing address, telephone number, and number of shares purchased.

 

This press release may be considered Attorney Advertising in some jurisdictions under the applicable law and ethical rules.

https://www.robinspo...imited-ssl.html

 


Edited by Spell Jammer, 24 March 2020 - 08:40 AM.

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#16 Spell Jammer

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 08:39 AM


Press Release: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Reminds Investors of Looming Deadline in the Class Action Lawsuit Against Sasol Limited (SSL)
Details   Category: Globe NewsWire News Distribution Service
24 Mar 2020
Last Updated: 24 March 2020 Published: 24 March 2020 Written by Globe NewsWire Press Releases

LOS ANGELES, March 23, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz reminds investors of the upcoming April 6, 2020 deadline to file a lead plaintiff motion in the class action filed on behalf of investors who acquired of Sasol Limited (“Sasol” or the Company”) (NYSE: SSL) securities between March 10, 2015 and January 13, 2020 inclusive (the “Class Period”).

If you are a shareholder who suffered a loss, click here to participate.

On October 27, 2014, Sasol announced the construction of an $8.1 billion ethane cracker and derivatives complex called the Lake Charles Chemicals Project (“LCCP”).

On June 6, 2016, Sasol reported “that the expected total capital expenditure for the [LCCP] could increase up to US $11 billion, including site infrastructure and utility improvements.” Moreover, the Company disclosed that “the estimated LCCP capital cost and extended schedule will reduce the expected project returns by approximately the same amount as the Company’s lower long-term price assumptions.”

On this news, Sasol’s American depositary receipt (“ADR”) price fell $3.53 per share, or approximately 11%, to close at $28.60 per share on June 6, 2016, thereby injuring investors.

On May 22, 2019, during pre-market hours, Sasol revealed that “the cost estimate for the LCCP has been revised to a range of $12.6 to $12,9 billion which includes a contingency of $300 million.”

On this news, Sasol’s ADR price fell $4.50 per share, or nearly 15%, to close at $25.64 per share on May 22, 2019, thereby injuring investors further.

On August 16, 2019, during pre-market hours, Sasol postponed its full year 2019 financial results because of “possible LCCP control weaknesses.”

On this news, Sasol’s ADR price fell $0.74 per share, or over 4%, to close at $17.67 per share on August 16, 2019, thereby injuring investors further.

On October 28, 2019, Sasol disclosed that there were “errors, omissions, and inaccuracies in the [LCCP] cost estimate” and that the highest level of management had engaged in a number of unethical and improper reporting activities.  Sasol also announced the resignation of, inter alia, its Joint Presidents and Chief Executive Officers (“CEOs”) and Senior Vice Presidents and others previously in charge of the LCCP.

On January 14, 2020, Sasol confirmed “an explosion and fire at its LCCP low-density polyethylene (LDPE) unit.”  Sasol stated that “[t]he unit was in the final stages of commissioning and startup when the incident occurred.”

On this news, Sasol’s ADR price fell $1.70 per share, or nearly 8%, over the following two trading days to close at $19.99 per share on January 15, 2020, thereby injuring investors further.

The complaint filed in this class action alleges that throughout the Class Period, Defendants made materially false and/or misleading statements, as well as failed to disclose material adverse facts about the Company’s business, operations, and prospects.  Specifically, Defendants failed to disclose to investors: (1) that Sasol had conducted insufficient due diligence into, and failed to account for multiple issues with, the LCCP, as well as the true cost of the project; (2) that construction and operation of the LCCP was consequently plagued by control weaknesses, delays, rising costs, and technical issues; (3) that these issues were exacerbated by Sasol’s top-level management, who engaged in improper and unethical behavior with respect to financial reporting for the LCCP and the project’s oversight; (4) that all of the foregoing was reasonably likely to render the LCCP significantly more expensive than disclosed and negatively impact the Company’s financial results; and (5) that as a result, the Company’s public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times.

Follow us for updates on Twitter: twitter.com/FRC_LAW.

If you purchased or otherwise acquired Sasol securities during the Class Period, you may move the Court no later than April 6, 2020 to request appointment as lead plaintiff in this putative class action lawsuit.  To be a member of the class action you need not take any action at this time; you may retain counsel of your choice or take no action and remain an absent member of the class action.  If you wish to learn more about this class action, or if you have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to the pending class action lawsuit, please contact Frank R. Cruz, of The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz, 1999 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1100, Los Angeles, California 90067 at 310-914-5007, by email to info@frankcruzlaw.com, or visit our website at www.frankcruzlaw.com.  If you inquire by email please include your mailing address, telephone number, and number of shares purchased.

This press release may be considered Attorney Advertising in some jurisdictions under the applicable law and ethical rules.

https://www.robinspo...imited-ssl.html

If successful, what will this do to the SOL share price?

 


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#17 Spell Jammer

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 02:18 PM

R10/share a good buy? How low will this share go?

Goldman sachs has changed its outlook from buy to hold. So who knows? Guess its better than sell.


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#18 Lionelza1

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 12:24 PM

SOL being hammered again today.


R10/share a good buy? How low will this share go?
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#19 Spell Jammer

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 11:43 AM

SOL being hammered again today. 


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#20 skeez

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 10:17 AM

The US government has imposed antidumping duties on acetone from SA, adding to the already extensive woes of oil and chemicals group Sasol.
After an investigation into dumping, the US imposed a 414% duty on SA’s acetone exports. Acetone is used as a solvent in the manufacturing of plastics and synthetic fibres. It thins polyester resin, and is an ingredient in cleaning tools, paints and varnishes.


Taken from Business Day...Said earlier the Yanks are gunning for Sasol......

So long as people like Jooste are walking freely acts like this will continue. What is the point of paying these "directors" and "execs" their huge salaries when no one ever takes responsibility for anything. Similarly with accounting firms.
This Sasol fall just looks engineered.
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