1114 replies to this topic

[alkadush]

Has to be Sacoil its flying 

[michaessers]

so keith...has this thread achieved its objective of identifying (what in your opinion) is the next 10 bagger?

[Queen B]

SCL has gone crazy the past few weeks

Has literally doubled in value in a very short time frame

[edmario]

Jubilee currently trading at 48c time to buy again

[jim]

Does anyone have any comments on MORVEST whose dividend yield is higher than its PE?

Jim Laing

[Sugafoot]

Wescoal has had quite a pull back from the 240c or so of a month ago... At about 210-215 range now

Is it a good time to add to existing?
Or can we expect some more drop to below 210c?

[Trader1]

Bauba Platinum (BAU). It went up 42% in the past 2 weeks and I think has some great upside potential pending on final negotiations.

"Final negotiations remain in progress which, if successfully concluded may have a material effect on the
price of the Company?s securities. Accordingly, shareholders are advised to continue exercising caution
when dealing in the Company's securities, until a further announcement is made."

[HendrikB]

 

_Stock name: Hulamin

- Stock code:HLM

- Business model: fabricates aluminium and export it to over 50 countries around the world.

- Downside Risks: South Africa's labour landscape and electricity prices.

- Investment case: Aluminium prices are going through the roof and the rand is running towards R12.50

- Valuation:  Its bouncing of three year lows.  P/E attractive at 6.1.Company has little debt and well-placed to benefit from a weak rand and record aluminium prices.

 

 

This is a no-brainer folks!

 

 

Yesterday it was announced that Billiton and Hulamin is under negotiations over Billition's smelter in the Bayport area which Hulamin is using.  This could have a potential negative affect on the share price in the short term.

[HendrikB]

_Stock name: Hulamin

- Stock code:HLM

- Business model: fabricates aluminium and export it to over 50 countries around the world.

- Downside Risks: South Africa's labour landscape and electricity prices.

- Investment case: Aluminium prices are going through the roof and the rand is running towards R12.50

- Valuation:  Its bouncing of three year lows.  P/E attractive at 6.1.Company has little debt and well-placed to benefit from a weak rand and record aluminium prices.

 

 

This is a no-brainer folks!

Edited by HendrikB, 14 January 2014 - 04:57 PM.

[flexbender]

I've added Santova to my long-term portfolio.  In at R1.11.

 

So did I.

[gamma]

Crazy financial engineering. Matter of time before something blows up! Gotta hand it to them tho. Clever

Check out this article:

The evolution of small company finance
Finding money for Alternative Investment Market-listed (Aim) natural resources ventures is a very tough game these days. In fact, during 2012, the sector collectively raised the smallest amount of money via new equity since 2003 - even though the number of listed companies has tripled since then.
So it piqued our interest when a little-known, London-based financing group called Darwin Strategic kept popping up as a major new investor in Aim penny stocks.
During the past three months, Darwin has committed to a combined £33.6m in new financing deals with five Aim companies. And in 2012, it agreed to invest a total of over £100m in close to a dozen companies that otherwise might have struggled to raise money.
Notably, all Darwin's deals are structured as complicated, multi-year drawdown agreements called 'equity finance facilities', or EFFs - and if the financial crisis has taught us anything, it's that we should pay especially close attention to unusual financial arrangements.
Given their regular use (see table) it's surprisingly hard to find information on how these products work, although the team behind Darwin were very open when we asked them. So what exactly are they?
EFFs essentially work like a line of credit, repayable in shares instead of cash. Darwin and other EFF providers agree to supply a listed company with an amount of cash they can draw down in small tranches at their discretion over a period of a few years. So, rather than trying to raise, say, £5m or £10m from hard-to-tap capital markets all in one go, companies can drip-feed themselves money from an EFF. They don't have to repay the line of credit using shares priced at a large discount, either - instead, whenever they draw down, the company issues new shares at or near the prevailing market price. They also don't have to use the facility if they don't need it - usually no fees are attached.
The catch is that Darwin typically short-sells shares of the listed company in the open market just before a draw down occurs. It then gives the short-selling proceeds to the listed company in return for shares, and then closes out its short position with the new shares issued by the company. The end result is often something what Darwin’s chief executive, Anand Sambasivan, calls "risk neutral", whereby Darwin has limited or no exposure to shares in the listed company despite just giving them hundreds of thousands of pounds in exchange for an equivalent amount in shares.
Darwin profits by taking a percentage cut of the transaction, plus whatever it can make from the spread between the short-selling price and the issued price of the new shares. In addition, Darwin is usually issued warrants when signing the EFF, so if the listed company’s share price were to rise afterwards, then it could make money on those, too.
We've got no problem with this - and Darwin are justifiably proud to have developed a vehicle that allows them to provide much-needed financing to small companies in a mutually beneficial way. But the companies using them should take greater care not to position them as strategic investments by a large and well-respected investor - in this case Henderson Global Investors, Darwin's majority shareholder.
Mr Sambasivan told the Investors Chronicle that Darwin’s facilities are designed to be "net neutral" and that they are "never net short". Sometimes, however, he says they go "net long" or get an institutional investor, such as Henderson, to take up a portion of the shares in a long position.
One Aim executive, who wished to remain anonymous, claims to have received and declined several EFF offers lately - albeit from parties other than Darwin. He described them as "a necessary evil" but said he was "very concerned about the lack of disclosure to shareholders".
Darwin's chief executive nevertheless argues his equity finance facilities allow companies to raise money at better prices than if they had to raise it all in one go. "Companies are no longer held hostage when they want to raise money," Mr Sambasivan says, pointing out that EFFs bring "a sort of institutional flavour back to the Aim market" at a time when institutional investors have largely abandoned the natural resource sector.
As for creating pressure on share prices: "We look at it very carefully. We have someone, an ex-market maker for the Aim market, who really knows what he's doing with this and he's able to do it with absolutely minimal impact to the share price." Nevertheless, we'd still suggest that investors don't take such fundraisings as a vote of confidence in the prospects of any companies using them.


EFF AGREEMENTS SIGNED BY DARWIN AIM COMPANY Amount (£) Date NOVENTA 5m Mar 13 OXUS GOLD 3.6m Mar 13 ASCENT RESOURCES 10m Feb 13 FORTE ENERGY 10m Feb 13 VERONA PHARMA 5m Jan 13 OROGEN GOLD 5m Nov 12 DIAMONDCORP 10m Oct 12 SUNRISE RESOURCES 3m Oct 12 SILENCE THERAPEUTICS 10m Jul 12 FASTJET 5m Jul 12 MAGNOLIA PETROLEUM 10m Jul 12 TERTIARY RESOURCES 10m Jun 12 ORTAC RESOURCES 20m May 12 SEFTON RESOURCES 15m May 12 TOWER RESOURCES 20m Mar 12 PROVEXIS 25m Nov 11 SARANTEL 5m Jun 11 VSA CAPITAL 5m Mar 11 NIGHTHAWK ENERGY 25m Oct 10 GEONG 5m Jul 10

Remember JBL is dual listed in SA and London....This type of finance is obviously legal in UK.... In SA i dont think they will allow it!!
JBL continues to tank in UK so 40c may be a reality here!! This companies one subsidiary actually produces it own electricity and sells it to Eskom.

[HDB]

Gee...that even legal?

 

 

Check out this article:

 

The evolution of small company finance

Finding money for Alternative Investment Market-listed (Aim) natural resources ventures is a very tough game these days. In fact, during 2012, the sector collectively raised the smallest amount of money via new equity since 2003 - even though the number of listed companies has tripled since then.

So it piqued our interest when a little-known, London-based financing group called Darwin Strategic kept popping up as a major new investor in Aim penny stocks.

During the past three months, Darwin has committed to a combined £33.6m in new financing deals with five Aim companies. And in 2012, it agreed to invest a total of over £100m in close to a dozen companies that otherwise might have struggled to raise money.

Notably, all Darwin's deals are structured as complicated, multi-year drawdown agreements called 'equity finance facilities', or EFFs - and if the financial crisis has taught us anything, it's that we should pay especially close attention to unusual financial arrangements.

Given their regular use (see table) it's surprisingly hard to find information on how these products work, although the team behind Darwin were very open when we asked them. So what exactly are they?

EFFs essentially work like a line of credit, repayable in shares instead of cash. Darwin and other EFF providers agree to supply a listed company with an amount of cash they can draw down in small tranches at their discretion over a period of a few years. So, rather than trying to raise, say, £5m or £10m from hard-to-tap capital markets all in one go, companies can drip-feed themselves money from an EFF. They don't have to repay the line of credit using shares priced at a large discount, either - instead, whenever they draw down, the company issues new shares at or near the prevailing market price. They also don't have to use the facility if they don't need it - usually no fees are attached.

The catch is that Darwin typically short-sells shares of the listed company in the open market just before a draw down occurs. It then gives the short-selling proceeds to the listed company in return for shares, and then closes out its short position with the new shares issued by the company. The end result is often something what Darwin’s chief executive, Anand Sambasivan, calls "risk neutral", whereby Darwin has limited or no exposure to shares in the listed company despite just giving them hundreds of thousands of pounds in exchange for an equivalent amount in shares.

Darwin profits by taking a percentage cut of the transaction, plus whatever it can make from the spread between the short-selling price and the issued price of the new shares. In addition, Darwin is usually issued warrants when signing the EFF, so if the listed company’s share price were to rise afterwards, then it could make money on those, too.

We've got no problem with this - and Darwin are justifiably proud to have developed a vehicle that allows them to provide much-needed financing to small companies in a mutually beneficial way. But the companies using them should take greater care not to position them as strategic investments by a large and well-respected investor - in this case Henderson Global Investors, Darwin's majority shareholder.

Mr Sambasivan told the Investors Chronicle that Darwin’s facilities are designed to be "net neutral" and that they are "never net short". Sometimes, however, he says they go "net long" or get an institutional investor, such as Henderson, to take up a portion of the shares in a long position.

One Aim executive, who wished to remain anonymous, claims to have received and declined several EFF offers lately - albeit from parties other than Darwin. He described them as "a necessary evil" but said he was "very concerned about the lack of disclosure to shareholders".

Darwin's chief executive nevertheless argues his equity finance facilities allow companies to raise money at better prices than if they had to raise it all in one go. "Companies are no longer held hostage when they want to raise money," Mr Sambasivan says, pointing out that EFFs bring "a sort of institutional flavour back to the Aim market" at a time when institutional investors have largely abandoned the natural resource sector.

As for creating pressure on share prices: "We look at it very carefully. We have someone, an ex-market maker for the Aim market, who really knows what he's doing with this and he's able to do it with absolutely minimal impact to the share price." Nevertheless, we'd still suggest that investors don't take such fundraisings as a vote of confidence in the prospects of any companies using them.

 

 

EFF AGREEMENTS SIGNED BY DARWIN AIM COMPANY Amount (£) Date NOVENTA 5m Mar 13 OXUS GOLD 3.6m Mar 13 ASCENT RESOURCES 10m Feb 13 FORTE ENERGY 10m Feb 13 VERONA PHARMA 5m Jan 13 OROGEN GOLD 5m Nov 12 DIAMONDCORP 10m Oct 12 SUNRISE RESOURCES 3m Oct 12 SILENCE THERAPEUTICS 10m Jul 12 FASTJET 5m Jul 12 MAGNOLIA PETROLEUM 10m Jul 12 TERTIARY RESOURCES 10m Jun 12 ORTAC RESOURCES 20m May 12 SEFTON RESOURCES 15m May 12 TOWER RESOURCES 20m Mar 12 PROVEXIS 25m Nov 11 SARANTEL 5m Jun 11 VSA CAPITAL 5m Mar 11 NIGHTHAWK ENERGY 25m Oct 10 GEONG 5m Jul 10

 

Remember JBL is dual listed in SA and London....This type of finance is obviously legal in UK.... In SA i dont think they will allow it!!

JBL continues to tank in UK so 40c may be a reality here!! This companies one subsidiary actually produces it own electricity and sells it to Eskom. 

Edited by HDB, 13 January 2014 - 09:41 PM.

[HendrikB]

1) COH if you got in early and have a volume-weighted average price holding below R10

 

 

I made my money from Curro but I do think the share is overpriced and I'd be wary from buying in at current levels.

[Saints]

Thanks Keith for starting this topic. As a long term investor I spend much of my time looking for potential 10-baggers and my risk appetite currently allows this. I am going to put my money where my mouth is and put some suggestions on the table for comment.

 

1) COH if you got in early and have a volume-weighted average price holding below R10

2) POY - rumours of a Nasdaq listing, dramatically increased earnings and PSG as a shareholder put this one on my list. Wished I bought earlier as at current prices 10-bagger status may be dwindling

3) UBU - I am watching this one very carefully and waiting patiently for the time to buy when this share will bounce back. Currently this company is in a bit of a mess but a new shareholder is trying to turn things around and with their business in the potentially future exciting agricultural sector this one could fly from the current 40c or thereabouts.

4) WEZ - let's forget about the hype and drama around this share a few years back. This share doubled in price last year and now has the funding in place to build the mine which is now expected to run ahead of schedule thanks to the Chinese! Once platinum makes a comeback and first world economies shake off the recession blues this mine could be at the right place at the right time. Still years away but if you are looking for a potential 10-bagger on current prices put this one on your watch list. 

  

[soutie]

Ref: JBL check the sell volume now @ 2mins to close

[HendrikB]

I've added Santova to my long-term portfolio.  In at R1.11.

[ThatBlackGuy]

Jubilee at 50c could be a 20 bagger or could go down to Zero... Worth a punt as risk reward is very very high!! Fantastic assets but just poor management similiar to Village. All talk and window dressing but no action. If they get there act together or get new management, this one could make you a packet in the next 3 to 5 years!! I sold my holdings when it dropped below R1.00 at a considerable loss at but considering getting backing in at 50c!! Please do your own research and also do some homework on a financing company called Darwin which Jubilee has just used! These guys set up a scheme where they loan your funds in exchange for shares. Before the borrowing company does a drawdown of funds, these guy short the hell out of the company shares. Once drawdown is done they are reimbursed with shares at current drawdown date share price, making a killing while in the meantime shareholders just see the share price going down and down due to the shorting. They say its not naked shorting as they will have the share script once drawdown is made. Also borrowing company pays no interest as Darwin gets interest from shorting the shares. Complicated transaction but very messy for shareholders!!

 

Structures like these are unnecessary when one has a good business with solid fundamentals.

 

Given that you said management are shady ... I wouldn't touch this one to be honest.

 

Interesting to note is whether tangible NAV supports the current price or not. There may be some downside protection if the assets are as good as you say.

[gamma]

Gee...that even legal?

Jubilee at 50c could be a 20 bagger or could go down to Zero... Worth a punt as risk reward is very very high!! Fantastic assets but just poor management similiar to Village. All talk and window dressing but no action. If they get there act together or get new management, this one could make you a packet in the next 3 to 5 years!! I sold my holdings when it dropped below R1.00 at a considerable loss at but considering getting backing in at 50c!! Please do your own research and also do some homework on a financing company called Darwin which Jubilee has just used! These guys set up a scheme where they loan your funds in exchange for shares. Before the borrowing company does a drawdown of funds, these guy short the hell out of the company shares. Once drawdown is done they are reimbursed with shares at current drawdown date share price, making a killing while in the meantime shareholders just see the share price going down and down due to the shorting. They say its not naked shorting as they will have the share script once drawdown is made. Also borrowing company pays no interest as Darwin gets interest from shorting the shares. Complicated transaction but very messy for shareholders!!

[HDB]

Jubilee at 50c could be a 20 bagger or could go down to Zero... Worth a punt as risk reward is very very high!! Fantastic assets but just poor management similiar to Village. All talk and window dressing but no action. If they get there act together or get new management, this one could make you a packet in the next 3 to 5 years!! I sold my holdings when it dropped below R1.00 at a considerable loss at but considering getting backing in at 50c!! Please do your own research and also do some homework on a financing company called Darwin which Jubilee has just used! These guys set up a scheme where they loan your funds in exchange for shares. Before the borrowing company does a drawdown of funds, these guy short the hell out of the company shares. Once drawdown is done they are reimbursed with shares at current drawdown date share price, making a killing while in the meantime shareholders just see the share price going down and down due to the shorting. They say its not naked shorting as they will have the share script once drawdown is made. Also borrowing company pays no interest as Darwin gets interest from shorting the shares. Complicated transaction but very messy for shareholders!!

[Trader1]

BAU and MRI