35854 replies to this topic

[Hedge]

Yes or No

Watching this thread is very interesting. the Wave theory thing is something I have never looked at before, and I am struggling to get my head around it and trust the predictions it makes. As a relatively small trader I need a more direct Yes or NO type of analysis. I have been using one system for about 6 months and have decided to ask if the group thinks this is a good method to trade on or not, it has worked very well for me so far. 

 

I use Bollinger bands but alter the settings to, 10 and 0.1. for a long trade I wait for the candle to cross the bands and then wait for one full candle to occur above the band. I stay in the trade as long as the candles remain above the bands, the exit is the same as the entry but I wait for one full candle to happen below the band (not touch the band).

 

If the candles start to look like they are going to cross the bands I confirm with MACD and look at how close the histogram is to the zero point, if it is well above the zero I continue the trade.  

 

works best on a 10 minute chart but I enter a trade on the 5 minute chart and then watch the 10 for the exit. Works Wonderfully for day trades and short (3 or 4 day trades)

 

Has anyone tried this before and are there any comments on how I could improve it.

 

Grant

Sounds like a good system and if it works stick with it. Wont always win but as long as the winners exceed the losers you will end up tops. A system is the only way really. If you can stick to it!.

[Argento]

Calc for top should be corrected to 46490. Thanks

The wave is still going up - and that is my target.

I would like to see gap close, but this will eventually happen anyway.

The trip down from the top is with target 38274 ish.

Don't just follow me like a sheep!

DIY assist: forex-indicators.net/cycle-indicators/elliott-waves

If she reaches 45800 by end of this week and correct into the 13th June for only to get back up very possible 46490 can be reached (should mark the top of the bullish channel)!

 

When do you see it getting there? See Caldaro says major top should come around July with the presidential cycle down starting into October!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 26 May 2014 - 11:18 AM.

[grantmu]

Yes or No

Watching this thread is very interesting. the Wave theory thing is something I have never looked at before, and I am struggling to get my head around it and trust the predictions it makes. As a relatively small trader I need a more direct Yes or NO type of analysis. I have been using one system for about 6 months and have decided to ask if the group thinks this is a good method to trade on or not, it has worked very well for me so far. 

 

I use Bollinger bands but alter the settings to, 10 and 0.1. for a long trade I wait for the candle to cross the bands and then wait for one full candle to occur above the band. I stay in the trade as long as the candles remain above the bands, the exit is the same as the entry but I wait for one full candle to happen below the band (not touch the band).

 

If the candles start to look like they are going to cross the bands I confirm with MACD and look at how close the histogram is to the zero point, if it is well above the zero I continue the trade.  

 

works best on a 10 minute chart but I enter a trade on the 5 minute chart and then watch the 10 for the exit. Works Wonderfully for day trades and short (3 or 4 day trades)

 

Has anyone tried this before and are there any comments on how I could improve it.

 

Grant

 

[AJS]

Calc for top should be corrected to 46490. Thanks

The wave is still going up - and that is my target.

I would like to see gap close, but this will eventually happen anyway.

The trip down from the top is with target 38274 ish.

Don't just follow me like a sheep!

DIY assist: forex-indicators.net/cycle-indicators/elliott-waves

 

Thanks for your input, it is appreciated.

[Vertebrae]

Do you know where your going to?....

 

 

 

Calc for top should be corrected to 46490. Thanks

The wave is still going up - and that is my target.

I would like to see gap close, but this will eventually happen anyway.

The trip down from the top is with target 38274 ish.

Don't just follow me like a sheep!

DIY assist: forex-indicators.net/cycle-indicators/elliott-waves

[Argento]

Although I said it may go down I am still in Long on everything. I will not change to down until I see the trend turning, for me a trend change needs to show up on the daily charts before I will change my mind.

 

Grant 

Good stuff!

 

A

[grantmu]

Markets rarely start correcting due to news like our new finance minister, still see good upside (45800 TOP40F?) this week and she should only then start correcting in June as per seasonal trend and futures close-out.

 

My wrong short call last week was based on the weekly reversal candle we saw but it should be part of a topformation, there is none as of yet and why she is grinding higher. IMO the first leg down in June should kick it off, should then see the major top latter July when she should touch the upperline of the major bull channel posted last week and create that negative divergence.

 

Interesting how January's trade predicts the year's trend, this time around first half of 2014 is strong and second half the big bear should finally arrive with QE3 to end!

 

Lot of top analysts had this US formation wrong and called it the top....note to myself...trade your charts and always view the bigger picture/channels!

 

A

Although I said it may go down I am still in Long on everything. I will not change to down until I see the trend turning, for me a trend change needs to show up on the daily charts before I will change my mind.

 

Grant 

[Argento]

Agreed but this may be the trigger the market is looking for to do a correction, although the correction would work better if it it originated in one of the first world markets. It may also be a general thing if the market does not like any of the appointments, we will see in the morning.

 

Grant 

Markets rarely start correcting due to news like our new finance minister, still see good upside (45800 TOP40F?) this week and she should only then start correcting in June as per seasonal trend and futures close-out.

 

My wrong short call last week was based on the weekly reversal candle we saw but it should be part of a topformation, there is none as of yet and why she is grinding higher. IMO the first leg down in June should kick it off, should then see the major top latter July when she should touch the upperline of the major bull channel posted last week and create that negative divergence.

 

Interesting how January's trade predicts the year's trend, this time around first half of 2014 is strong and second half the big bear should finally arrive with QE3 to end!

 

Lot of top analysts had this US formation wrong and called it the top....note to myself...trade your charts and always view the bigger picture/channels!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 26 May 2014 - 09:30 AM.

[Gorrat]

Now the floodgates are going to open......

[farouk]

Looks like he got rid of the small chor's.

Now he brought in the really big chori's.

Its sad.

[HDB]

Looks like it is going to be the Rand pushing Alsi up today.

With you on that...but I really think that will happen tomorrow!!! when us opens ...big boys FX players

[Beorn]

Looks like it is going to be the Rand pushing Alsi up today.

[grantmu]

He was the deputy since 2008. So he was around for some time though...

Agreed but this may be the trigger the market is looking for to do a correction, although the correction would work better if it it originated in one of the first world markets. It may also be a general thing if the market does not like any of the appointments, we will see in the morning.

 

Grant 

[AJS]

probably down, new finance minister announced today. We will see if the market likes the decision. 

 

Grant 

 

He was the deputy since 2008. So he was around for some time though...

[grantmu]

probably down, new finance minister announced today. We will see if the market likes the decision. 

 

Grant 

 

[Vertebrae]

Do you know where your going to?....

 

[M I D A S]

Unrelated to the general drift, but pertinent to one share Tiger Brands mentioned by Shortboy, which is rated 4th amongst the least favoured stocks on the JSE, as per trailing link, which is unrelated to their intrinsic value but merely market perceptions.

 

http://www.moneyweb....d-top-40-stocks

[Shortboy]

still not convinced..absolutely no coverage on Ukraine elections?????? U have to be kidding me..what are they hiding? 45220 is where i will have to draw the line..Market still way OB even more so now..It will just take 2 days to return to normality

Don't do it at 45220 GymBaby. Remember Mhlato's Rule - The market always prove you wrong...just before it proves you right.

 

Youv'e seen this movie before, at least a dozen times in the past few weeks. Granted, we are on the wrong side of the trend at the moment. Sentiment changes overnight and leaves us breathless about thinking...had I just held on for 1 more session......you know that feeling.

 

Thats why I reduced the size of my bets and increased, significantly, the range of what I can carry. We know 3 things for sure. ALSI40 will continue up, down or sideways. It depends on what BIL, CFR, NPN, SAB,  MTN and British American wants to do, and our Rand and etc etc.

 

Just like late 2008, the rand hedges propped up what little was still there and then imploded leaving shares like Tiger Brands at a PE of 6, MTN at not much more etc etc.

 

Weekly trend is still up. Stay short, buy the dips.

 

Just my view, 1 of millions out there and cetainly not advice, just another view..

[Shortboy]

still not convinced..absolutely no coverage on Ukraine elections?????? U have to be kidding me..what are they hiding? 45220 is where i will have to draw the line..Market still way OB even more so now..It will just take 2 days to return to normality

Still holding short positions and no counter long as that was sold (at not much profit I must add). There are lots of people making a lot of unexpectedly high profits on their recent longs. It wont be long before they start getting jittery too. Plan to offload my worst performng short when the next opportunity comes along and re-enter a contra long....buy the ?%@!! dip. 

[Vertebrae]

Check Elliott rules for failed diagonal triangle

(should have seen this before now)

Then the same target movement takes place in the opposite direction.

The original correction target movement was 5113 points. The range becomes from end of 5th wave to fail point.

And so the new target for T40(F) became between 46610 and 48500

see chart