35854 replies to this topic

[strydomk]

Very weak opening. Maybe a little reality setting in?

[delta66]

guys, would appreciate your views on SA T40..with weaker ZAR would index not be driven higher even when taking into account some of the constituents high valuations.  we will only see correction on SA T40 if it's triggered by international market event/s

[BBW]

ANOTHER short order waiting at 45100. Surely if SA's moving into a recession, all shorts taken now, should be seen as "investment"?  (Actually, I think we already are in the dumps)

 

Changed that to 45050. HDB, what do your calculations show should fair value actually be this morning?

Edited by BBW, 28 May 2014 - 09:02 AM.

[TradeBit]

I've seen quite a few traders on twitter complain about the small daily range. 200 points for 4 days. Generally, what does a small range imply? Consolidation or investors not comfortable with this level?

Peace before storm.

[K~~]

So what happens if we get shocking GDP numbers? Mr market ignores the fact that SA is borderline reccession and makes a new high??

 

Your prediction is about to get fulfilled!

 

K

[Shortboy]

Two weeks ago Argento posted something in the effect US would grind higher and we will start going lower,well it looks like this is what we starting to see.Really think a lot of guys is going to be caught with their longs.The market has to correct and someone has to pay.Greedy longs must be worried by now as i dont see us reaching 45000 again for some time.Just my bear hopes

Up down, up down. Staying short. Not looking for a correction per se, but a decent pull back would be appreciated to allow me to take out a contra long and simultaneously settle my worst performing short. I don't think there is much fundamental substance under ALSI40 at the moment. You are right BC, that squeezed feeling is quite addictive, hee hee!  

[K~~]

Two weeks ago Argento posted something in the effect US would grind higher and we will start going lower,well it looks like this is what we starting to see.Really think a lot of guys is going to be caught with their longs.The market has to correct and someone has to pay.Greedy longs must be worried by now as i dont see us reaching 45000 again for some time.Just my bear hopes

Agree, BC. It is the end of May and we are still flying. Momentum is slowing, however, and it will not be long before the gap @44800 is closed. My short target is uptrend support @42500-ish. (Futures)

K

[bear catcher]

Two weeks ago Argento posted something in the effect US would grind higher and we will start going lower,well it looks like this is what we starting to see.Really think a lot of guys is going to be caught with their longs.The market has to correct and someone has to pay.Greedy longs must be worried by now as i dont see us reaching 45000 again for some time.Just my bear hopes

[Vertebrae]

Waves within waves. Bears gotta hibernate some more? Yup

 

[strydomk]

I've seen quite a few traders on twitter complain about the small daily range. 200 points for 4 days. Generally, what does a small range imply? Consolidation or investors not comfortable with this level?

[grantmu]

Isn't this the same as just using a 10 MA?

More like 3 MA lines one at 8 one at 10 and one at 12. the reason I went for this is using what is essentially a wider line eliminates some of the false  buy and sell signals. Just seems to take out more of the bumps and improves my profit. 

 

Grant 

[gringots]

Yes or No

Watching this thread is very interesting. the Wave theory thing is something I have never looked at before, and I am struggling to get my head around it and trust the predictions it makes. As a relatively small trader I need a more direct Yes or NO type of analysis. I have been using one system for about 6 months and have decided to ask if the group thinks this is a good method to trade on or not, it has worked very well for me so far. 

 

I use Bollinger bands but alter the settings to, 10 and 0.1. for a long trade I wait for the candle to cross the bands and then wait for one full candle to occur above the band. I stay in the trade as long as the candles remain above the bands, the exit is the same as the entry but I wait for one full candle to happen below the band (not touch the band).

 

If the candles start to look like they are going to cross the bands I confirm with MACD and look at how close the histogram is to the zero point, if it is well above the zero I continue the trade.  

 

works best on a 10 minute chart but I enter a trade on the 5 minute chart and then watch the 10 for the exit. Works Wonderfully for day trades and short (3 or 4 day trades)

 

Has anyone tried this before and are there any comments on how I could improve it.

 

Grant

 

Isn't this the same as just using a 10 MA?

[Argento]

And still she grinds and consolidate to only push higher...bulls got the bears at the throat, but for how long....should see some decent action in June (futures close-out month)!

 

Can't remember the last time I saw 'Sell in May..and go away'!

 

A

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[BBW]

Why was there a 38 point jump on the SA40(cash) IG at 11:54? It's not on the Futures...

[HDB]

So what happens if we get shocking GDP numbers? Mr market ignores the fact that SA is borderline reccession and makes a new high??

Our economy has been in a mess from last 5 years.

Bad number actually will take market higher via weakening pound!!

[strydomk]

So what happens if we get shocking GDP numbers? Mr market ignores the fact that SA is borderline reccession and makes a new high??

[farouk]

Morning all..Everyone too busy watching their screens atm? 

No they all gone to the bank.

Maybe  margin calls.

[strydomk]

Bit of a crazy open.

[Argento]

 

If she reaches 45800 by end of this week (That would breach the convergence and present a more dynamic positive).and correct into the 13th June for only to get back up very possible 46490 can be reached (should mark the top of the bullish channel)!

 

 

When do you see it getting there? (mid to end of July) See Caldaro says major top should come around July with the presidential cycle down starting into October!

 

Going against Caldaro is seldom a winner

 

A

PS

I was seeing this converging of the extension of the 5th as a prospective 2nd diagonal triangle. But the required divergence on macd histogram has not materialised.

Taking the SPX as a guide this move can still be in 3rd and right now a short sharp corrective 4th to 44600 will not suprise and will add some zest.

 

Thanks V

 

Ye, that Caldaro is a legend!

 

A

[Vertebrae]

If she reaches 45800 by end of this week (That would breach the convergence and present a more dynamic positive).and correct into the 13th June for only to get back up very possible 46490 can be reached (should mark the top of the bullish channel)!

 

 

When do you see it getting there? (mid to end of July) See Caldaro says major top should come around July with the presidential cycle down starting into October!

 

Going against Caldaro is seldom a winner

 

A

PS

I was seeing this converging of the extension of the 5th as a prospective 2nd diagonal triangle. But the required divergence on macd histogram has not materialised.

Taking the SPX as a guide this move can still be in 3rd and right now a short sharp corrective 4th to 44600 will not suprise and will add some zest.