35854 replies to this topic

[ZoomZ]

argento ..thanks

 

but how do you explain the falling MACD in the below section of your chart??

 

on my charts market breadth...rsi and macd's are falling with new highs...this illustrates exhaustion.

 

just saying

 

it's what makes markets. all good

[Argento]

That is why sculping can be dangerous...few saw this drop coming but with bullish crosses all around and the weeklies intact I am not concerned, if you want the roadmap into next week go back and see what happend on the 16th Jan...I say again, earning season will keep this baby up but after then time to short (no top formation yet)!

 

A

Bullish!!

 

A

[ZoomZ]

i wanna challenge anyone...on the bulls side that is....to show the forum..illustrate what they mean by no evidence of a confirming short trade...and to illustrate where they see market strength in charts?

 

show us positive divergences etc..or whatever they wish to to show the novices including me where they see the strength using charts?

 

use anything you want preferably a chart showing this

 

yes ..show a diagram of this..any time frame preferably daily?

 

anyone 

[ZoomZ]

top bollinger 10 minute has not turned down after initial spike up...market strong here..kinda

[ZoomZ]

2 gaps now ..44070 10 points and 43786 (13 points normally close)..and over shoot..may retest low

 

gold and commods holding us strong...but only by a strand of chewing gum

 

which first..methinks down

 

this info is for scalpers not trend traders

[ZoomZ]

roundtree you are an excellent trader squire...i dont know what model you use but it works...

are you in finance....trading a prop desk?...or are you a bricklayer

i only see this as shorts covering due to their shock of seeing the alsi go to new highs (and rand bounce)... but I dont think it has legs... we cannot expect to breach 44000 by 280 points and feel this is simply a back test...i would be short at 44067 and higher

 

ultimate target 42500...longer term 39900..with ups and downs along the way.

[Argento]

This could work out very profitable for you, this drop very fishy and should recover...it normally signals a huge move coming..in this case up!

 

A

That is why sculping can be dangerous...few saw this drop coming but with bullish crosses all around and the weeklies intact I am not concerned, if you want the roadmap into next week go back and see what happend on the 16th Jan...I say again, earning season will keep this baby up but after then time to short (no top formation yet)!

 

A

[Roundtree]

roundtree...you got balls bro.. i always wait for the second wave down to test and hold 43725..but great luck to you....there is a gap at 44067 to close 1 minute chart....I would short above there...but man it would be great if you pick up 250 points here.i do worry there is no support until 43600/43567 though.

You're right, Z; I see support at 43649. Anything below that signals a bearish market.

[ZoomZ]

bear those bear shaped wedges are all over world indices /markets... longer time frames that is, the wedges are the play here...so I see this as another ambush...and I felt something wrong 6 minutes before we mini crashed... the shorter time frames show bullish positions like tea cups but the dailies are horribalus alsi quite strong here...but if the dow keeps squelching towards 16330 it's tickets mon

[bear catcher]

WTF caused this drop?

[Roundtree]

This could work out very profitable for you, this drop very fishy and should recover...it normally signals a huge move coming..in this case up!

 

A

Thanks, A. Hope it does. Good day, brother.

[ZoomZ]

roundtree...you got balls bro.. i always wait for the second wave down to test and hold 43725..but great luck to you....there is a gap at 44067 to close 1 minute chart....I would short above there...but man it would be great if you pick up 250 points here.i do worry there is no support until 43600/43567 though.

[Argento]

Long 6 @ 43725. 

This could work out very profitable for you, this drop very fishy and should recover...it normally signals a huge move coming..in this case up!

 

A

[Sunesis]

 

No one will ring the bell at the top or blow a whistle

 

This is not soccer or rugby, this is poker and chess mixed with Russian roullete

 

I'm just sh8t scared of a correction, that's why i am not going long anytime soon. Until we get this 10% correction or more, i am riding on the bear.

 

The higher it goes the riskier it becomes.

 

I don't want all my hard earned cash from last year to evaporate. Best to play defense.

 

Advisors are still bullish (Bull and Bear) best to stay short

 

 

 

 

 

 

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself..."

 

However, when it comes to the stock market it is the "lack of fear" that we should be most fearful of.

 

Throughout human history, the emotions of "fear" and "greed" have influenced market dynamics.  From soaring bull markets to crashing bear markets, tulip bubbles to the South Sea, railroads to technology; the emotions of greed, fear, panic, hope and despair have remained a constant driver of investor behavior. 

 

 

The chart below, shows the investor psychology cycle overlaid against the S&P 500 and the 3-month average of net equity fund inflows by investors. The longer that an advance occurs in the market, the more complacent that investors tend to become.

 

 

 

Complacency is like a "warm blanket on a freezing day."  No matter how badly you want something, you are likely to defer action because it will require leaving the "cozy comfort" the blanket affords you. When it comes to the markets, that complacency can be detrimental to your long term financial health.

 

 

The chart below shows the 6-month average of the volatility index (VIX) which represents the level of "fear" by investors of a potential market correction.

 

The current levels of investor complacency are more usually associated with late stage bull markets rather than the beginning of new ones.

 

The point here is simple. The combined levels of bullish optimism, lack of concern about a possible market correction (don't worry the Fed has the markets back), and rising levels of leverage in markets provide the"ingredients" for a more severe market correction.

 

 

 

As you can see, during the initial phases of a topping process complacency as shown by the 3-month volatility index at the bottom remains low. As the markets rise, investor confidence builds leading to a"willful" blindness of the inherent risks. This confidence remains during the topping process which can take months to complete. With individuals focused on the extremely short term market movements (the tree) they miss the fact that the forest is on fire around them. However, as shown, by the time investors realize the markets have broken it is generally too late.

 

 

 

 

"The survivors pledged to themselves that they would forever be more careful, less greedy, less short-term oriented.

 

But here we are again, mired in a euphoric environment in which some securities have risen in price beyond all reason, where leverage is returning to rainy markets and asset classes, and where caution seems radical and risk-taking the prudent course. Not surprisingly, lessons learned in 2008 were only learned temporarily. These are the inevitable cycles of greed and fear, of peaks and troughs.

 

Can we say when it will end? No. Can we say that it will end? Yes. And when it ends and the trend reverses, here is what we can say for sure. Few will be ready. Few will be prepared."

 

 

It is in that statement that we find the unfortunate truth. Individuals are once again told that this time will be different. Anyone who dares speak against the clergy of bullishness is immediately chastised for heresy. Yet, in the end, no one will ring the bell at the top and ask everyone to please exit the building in an orderly fashion. Rather, it will be "Constanza moment" as the adults (professionals) trample the children (retail) to flee the building in a moment of panic.

 

 

 

The Bulls climb the stairs and bears jump out the window

 

LOL

LOL LOL LOL LOL

 

LOLEST        

[Roundtree]

Today's price action looks bullish to me. Here's how I see it.

 

Yesterday the professionals were waiting to proxy trade 43719 up to 44079. But yesterday afternoon the market turned around before reaching their target; naturally they had gone short at 44044 thereabout. This morning, despite the huge move in the DOW, the ALSI is up just a few points; that tells me the professionals had gone short.  

 

I therefore expect the market to come 43842 for them to get out of their trades and possibly all the way down to 43719 to buy from the guys who went short at that level. Those are the ones who are itching to get out and the market can smell it. Let's see.

Long 6 @ 43725. 

[ZoomZ]

zing zing zing lovely action man....cant see anything but smoke on my screen here..what's up alsi puking 43638??

[Sunesis]

and anyway Sunesis if you believe rand weakness coming from a 200ma bounce you should be long alsi mate not short..yeah? it's all good.

We will see what happens when the rand gets weak. i still say markets will come down and rand will go back to 10.80

[Roundtree]

roundtree the guru...i love you man snap.

It's a beautiful morning, ZoomZ. Happy trading, brother.

[ZoomZ]

i have a felling though 90% on this forum went long above 44000 today. oops. hope it works out the way roundtree called. alsi will defintely bounce at 43830 but I woould be short from 44000 again if it does? my onion

[ZoomZ]

roundtree the guru...i love you man snap.