35854 replies to this topic

[ZoomZ]

my wild card call for today...alsi closes 43750...goes to 43639. just a hunch honey bunch

[Roundtree]

Today's price action looks bullish to me. Here's how I see it.

 

Yesterday the professionals were waiting to proxy trade 43719 up to 44079. But yesterday afternoon the market turned around before reaching their target; naturally they had gone short at 44044 thereabout. This morning, despite the huge move in the DOW, the ALSI is up just a few points; that tells me the professionals had gone short.  

 

I therefore expect the market to come 43842 for them to get out of their trades and possibly all the way down to 43719 to buy from the guys who went short at that level. Those are the ones who are itching to get out and the market can smell it. Let's see.

[ZoomZ]

sunesis great to have your experience..but you forget most traders started on forex trading...and we have plenty of experience and in charts.. a chart is a chart is a chart...forex trades precisely the same way especially if one has longer time frames..we use the same indicators and pivot models to say stock /indices traders don't understand forex is slightly duplicitous...we have the knowledge of both tied up in our strategies. good luck as always --------------------------------- alsi on her knees..sweet as honey.

[Argento]

aah argento...yes indeed but does the rand breach the 200 ma?? and shock, dismay and surprise everyone to go higher(stronger) that is the question?

Guess it can happen but normally she bounces..will see!

 

That diamond formation I called still got higher counts into next week and no weekly reversal candle yet on TOP40!

 

A

[Sunesis]

and anyway Sunesis if you believe rand weakness coming from a 200ma bounce you should be long alsi mate not short..yeah? it's all good.

I trade nearly 12 forex pairs everyday. i see markets differently, and how they effect the stock market.

 

When traders are long the rand vs the dollar it's called a carry trade. They make more money by just having the position open everyday.

 

That's why when the peso,lira and rand were tanking in January, the central banks had to increase interest rates even thought the economies are doing bad. They were trying to stop dollar positions against the rand. the higher the interest rate the more banks would loose holding a long USD/ZAR position. hence the bleeding stopped. A higher interest rate country has an advantage vs a lower one, when it comes to currencies. I trade forex everyday. what happens in the forex market is way to complex for stock traders to understand. The forex market is the biggest market in the world. The stock market fits 4 times into the forex market daily revenue. It's a 5 trillion dollar a day market.

[ZoomZ]

hoo hoo nice weak action man...this is not good for the bulls in my opinion alsi may bounce off 55ma ..try to go higher...but dow weakness cannot be a good thing... and does the dow go to 16330?? or 16600 first?

[ZoomZ]

beautiful retest of 44000 like i called it....(remember although I called for a possible 44236/368 odd spike ).... I said its banging up against that channel and acually failed the channel break out...and I question the gap....something is not right and again anglos and bill faked out (strange they also have tea cup formations) i shorted the alsi at the channel fail for a 44000 retest and got it. covered for now...but will hammer shorts hartd if we break 43977. for a gap close. lets see

[ZoomZ]

aah argento...yes indeed but does the rand breach the 200 ma?? and shock, dismay and surprise everyone to go higher(stronger) that is the question?

[farouk]

I have bailed out on half my longs going to wait for another high in the next hour to cash in the balance.

Tonight move in the US will be very important.

If S&P breaks above 1875 then the Alsi will continue its upward march.

If the S&P cannot break this level then expect a pullback in our markets.

Whats important for our markets will be the ftse.

If ftse breaks 6500 then all hell will break loose on our markets.

On the Gold front i expect a big push upside above 1400 to 1500 before it crashes below $1000.

My bottom target of $700 from last year still holds.

My 2 cents.

[Argento]

and anyway Sunesis if you believe rand weakness coming from a 200ma bounce you should be long alsi mate not short..yeah? it's all good.

Agreed, rand weakness will push the resources up, that is why they have been struggling as of late and should resume their march north soon!

A

[ZoomZ]

dow tea cup... this is basis 15 minute chart...test 16600 but basis daily chart...inside three (fractal) for a down to 16000.

[ZoomZ]

and anyway Sunesis if you believe rand weakness coming from a 200ma bounce you should be long alsi mate not short..yeah? it's all good.

[bear catcher]

A strong rand means risk on mode. Traders start buying risk currencies which give higher rates everyday they hold them. AUD,GBP,NZD are risk currencies (high yield) . The rand is part of the fragile five currencies. They offer higher rates for investors because of their high interest rates.

 

When the market is risk off, it buys safe heaven currencies like the yen (JPY) and swiss franc (CHF)

 

When people pile into the yen, the stock market goes down. Vise versa

 

So a strong rand means markets go up, because traders or investors are feeling risky. When they start dumping Rands, just know there is a rat in the kitchen.

 

The alsi is at the highs and USD/ZAR is at 200DMA something will break soon.

Thank you S

[ZoomZ]

S I dont beleive ..'markets go up with strong rand..'which markets..alsi? I doubt it..bond markets maybe the rand is not a target currency for buying of course...but it can strengthen as a result of Brics strengthening and indeed if we witness a paradigm shift...not because people want to invest in it..and if they want higher rates they dont buy alsi they buy SA bonds. the rand is very thinly traded hence the mega moves we witness...for the rand to strengthen it does not mean people are buying or piling into rand...it just means the sellers back off, and traders/institutions are not be selling it hand over fist..there is a difference in this. anyway all good trade one's view..and one's charts. alsi..nice drop on alsi...now close the gap you monster.

[Sunesis]

Ok Zoomz please help a novice, so if rand is stronger our market has to go down or what?

A strong rand means risk on mode. Traders start buying risk currencies which give higher rates everyday they hold them. AUD,GBP,NZD are risk currencies (high yield) . The rand is part of the fragile five currencies. They offer higher rates for investors because of their high interest rates.

 

When the market is risk off, it buys safe heaven currencies like the yen (JPY) and swiss franc (CHF)

 

When people pile into the yen, the stock market goes down. Vise versa

 

So a strong rand means markets go up, because traders or investors are feeling risky. When they start dumping Rands, just know there is a rat in the kitchen.

 

The alsi is at the highs and USD/ZAR is at 200DMA something will break soon.

[ZoomZ]

bear this is an alsi thread..but the rand does effect alsi substantially the commodity complex is what is relevant in the discussion...strong rand implies weaker profits translation on balance sheets..so technically commoodities would pull the alsi down yes. but as the dollar weakens...commodities go up in price normally...but as the world switches into non USD based trading we could actually witness deflationary commodity prices when one check Rand against aussi/yen/yuan/braz real etc..so again alsi could go down not up. and if china stops growing demand for commods would also decline putting pressure on commod price further coupled with stronger relative rand..alsi down i believe the world sits on excess capacity and am in the price deflation camp but monetary inflation camp...the dollar is hyper inflating. macro economics is difficult for traders to factor...just trade the charts. (My comments are for paradigms shifts in USD being the king...it stopped being king in 2007/8 already) ... what we are seeing is a hot-air balloon with a family of albatross's beaks stuck in the side of it..... and a hiss getting louder and louder. can you hear it?

[Sunesis]

Mr S,

Checked out the 200MA on R/$ and it bounces on it nicely. My model should give a long on R/$ by next week 16th or 17th. This coincides with the correction due pre/post easter weekend.

Thumbs crossed :unsure:

Some would say go big or go home on this trade.

 

With markets at highs, any risk off mode will get ZAR back to at least R10.80

 

[bear catcher]

guys i know we are traders but my rand strength call is a call against a collapsing USD. all currencies will devalue...but the dollar will lose reserve status..asia is already changing their tune to trade locally (inter-asian markets in their own currencies) the days of a world power demanding all trade internationally in USD is over. there never was any reason for this...is was a setup...the east is waking up to this and making substantial changes...all I ask is do not trade with yesterday's old thinking paradigms of dollar strength in your strategies this will prove patently wrong.. only western press advocates a strong dollar...and check the charts to see how the world has been had by this naravtive.. the dollar euro launched at 1..euro fell to 82 cents..then rallied to 135 /155...but bloomberg et al constantly chanted the precise opposite - i.e. ...'the dollar is king..dollar is king dollar is king..'' really..charts dont lie. it fell 50% and never recovered...it is just beginning it's fall against BRICs majors now..check the BZL real for the past 4 years...went from 4 to 1 USD to what 1,5 to 1 USD. bloomberg shcmoomberg. caveat emptor USD

Ok Zoomz please help a novice, so if rand is stronger our market has to go down or what?

[ZoomZ]

guys i know we are traders but my rand strength call is a call against a collapsing USD. all currencies will devalue...but the dollar will lose reserve status..asia is already changing their tune to trade locally (inter-asian markets in their own currencies) the days of a world power demanding all trade internationally in USD is over. there never was any reason for this...is was a setup...the east is waking up to this and making substantial changes...all I ask is do not trade with yesterday's old thinking paradigms of dollar strength in your strategies this will prove patently wrong.. only western press advocates a strong dollar...and check the charts to see how the world has been had by this naravtive.. the dollar euro launched at 1..euro fell to 82 cents..then rallied to 135 /155...but bloomberg et al constantly chanted the precise opposite - i.e. ...'the dollar is king..dollar is king dollar is king..'' really..charts dont lie. it fell 50% and never recovered...it is just beginning it's fall against BRICs majors now..check the BZL real for the past 4 years...went from 4 to 1 USD to what 1,5 to 1 USD. bloomberg shcmoomberg. caveat emptor USD

[Gorrat]

Mr S,

Checked out the 200MA on R/$ and it bounces on it nicely. My model should give a long on R/$ by next week 16th or 17th. This coincides with the correction due pre/post easter weekend.

Thumbs crossed :unsure: