35854 replies to this topic

[Mostlya]

long off this morning..closing now for a few bob.

 

and reverse trade short at 47670

target about 47400/450

I like the sound of that

[Scalptrader]

Tencent up another 2% today. ALSI should be up another 500 points with relative ease. Personally I'm getting crushed here. Worst case scenario is playing out.

long off this morning..closing now for a few bob.

 

and reverse trade short at 47670

target about 47400/450

[Mostlya]

Tencent up another 2% today. ALSI should be up another 500 points with relative ease. Personally I'm getting crushed here. Worst case scenario is playing out.

[Mostlya]

Yes!!! probably higher for S+P500 tonight in that case...

Top 40 will probably gap up overnight too...

Complacency rules for now...

That's the thinking isn't it. Obvious a trap mentality but the Algos buy it based on that.

[Halfday]

The vix future though. Rough calculation puts the Vix open at about 9.35. That's close to record lows.  

Yes!!! probably higher for S+P500 tonight in that case...

Top 40 will probably gap up overnight too...

Complacency rules for now...

[Mostlya]

The vix future though. Rough calculation puts the Vix open at about 9.35. That's close to record lows.  

[Halfday]

Someone once said there's a time to buy and a time to sell...(Buffet maybe)

Naspers etc were cheap to buy a good few years ago... but now!!!!

If you  buy it today ...

What kind of risk is that???

All you have is the weaker ZAR helping you 

 

See the volume dropping off!!!

[Ninja]

Adding to shorts

Naspers daily and weekly oscillators heavily overbought

Trade the chart not the sentiment

Edited by Ninja, 09 May 2017 - 12:19 PM.

[Mostlya]

Naspers is valued on the investment in Tencent. So not to look at Naspers PE but rather Tencent's and its growth potential.

I understand the flow of earnings and the reporting but it's PE is double that of Tencent. There aren't too many companies in history who have sustained a PE over 20 let alone 90. To buy a share that has that kind of PE absolute madness. Amazon for example is at 190 and doesn't make money. It's the tech bubble all over again except this time they are established companies who have large operations that burn cash. Look at Apple for example. The biggest company in the world with a PE of 18. The reason it's so 'low' is simply because they actually sell something and have predictable operating profit. No share should every be a buy until the basic operating margin of a company is known.

 

Naspers has the potential to take out 10% of the top 40 just on its own if this tech euphoria turns even slightly sour.

[Rulz3]

Just not sure any of that matters anymore. Equities are going up on the notion that it's a good time to buy stocks. There isn't a valuation model in this known universe that would tell you to buy Naspers today but yet people are buying it at any level without any consideration whatsoever. The trap is being set on all equity markets but it might just be impossible to profit from it unless something market moving happens. It can melt up for indefinitely until that time. 

Naspers is valued on the investment in Tencent. So not to look at Naspers PE but rather Tencent's and its growth potential.

[Halfday]

Watching the USD index @ 99.26 and climbing now which is making our ZAR weaker and TOP 40 stronger...

Yanks and all obviously expecting  another rate hike soon...

[Mostlya]

Rand need to strengthen and oil has to go down. Can anyone share some technical on these 2? (oil and rand/usd)

Just not sure any of that matters anymore. Equities are going up on the notion that it's a good time to buy stocks. There isn't a valuation model in this known universe that would tell you to buy Naspers today but yet people are buying it at any level without any consideration whatsoever. The trap is being set on all equity markets but it might just be impossible to profit from it unless something market moving happens. It can melt up for indefinitely until that time. 

[Rulz3]

Rand need to strengthen and oil has to go down. Can anyone share some technical on these 2? (oil and rand/usd)

[Rulz3]

Unbelievable is all I can say.

[Mostlya]

Is the top in here? Despite being short for such a long time today is the first time I really have a feeling that this could actually be the blow-off rally we've been looking for. Obviously the idea is if this isn't a top and markets don't sell it's going to be hard to stop the ALSI from going to 50 000.  

 

Essentially what I'm feeling is we're at a cross-roads right now here. The point on the weekly charts where all shorts start to fold or the point where top-buyers get trapped. Seems to be unstoppable but as we know that's exactly how it moves just before it enters the start of a bear market. Virtually impossible to know with any degree of uncertainty and my own mental biases are pulling me all over the place.

 

47 900 is the line in the sand level for me.

 

The market is showing the blind optimism necessary to take it to the start of the denial process of the bear market as far as I can tell. Vix suppression and exceedingly high consumer confidence are a few signs. How can one really tell though when were dealing with mass Psychology. As far as I can tell we can't. We can only take a few and establish a strategy and hope it works out.

 

Seems to be holding 47 900 now so I guess 50 000 is a real possibility now. 

[Scalptrader]

Hi ..busy elsewhere but here is one for today

 

Long 5 c @ 47070

closed for 800p

[Mostlya]

Bears in huge trouble today by the looks of it. Might get up towards 48K on Naspers buying.

[Scalptrader]

Scalp you back for good? Missed you.

Hi ..busy elsewhere but here is one for today

 

Long 5 c @ 47070

[Rulz3]

so has lunatic MR V gone for good?

 

not before he f*c%ed this forum up for good...

 

Wonder if he ran short of pills and finally kicked the bucket?

 

or lost all his money?

 

or could not attract any clients from here?

 

or maybe joined HDBs forum....hehehehe

Scalp you back for good? Missed you.

[Scalptrader]

so has lunatic MR V gone for good?

 

not before he f*c%ed this forum up for good...

 

Wonder if he ran short of pills and finally kicked the bucket?

 

or lost all his money?

 

or could not attract any clients from here?

 

or maybe joined HDBs forum....hehehehe