35854 replies to this topic

[Mostlya]

Today action amazing as always. Full morning to sell off. 10 minutes to buy it all back. 48k in sight now. Nothing can stop this market. The optimism surrounding stocks and passive investment strategies can keep it going indefinitely. Well at least until it cant anymore.

 

Vix would be well under 10 now if it opened at these levels. A sign of extreme optimism and extreme complacency. Now all we need is something to push this over the edge. Just feels like no risk could be great enough to actually cause panic.

[Ninja]

Has anyone heard of sandy jadeja... go Google him, has predicted that 11 May is a key date... for all it counts lol

They say he got a couple if calls right☺

Don't know if it's just me... but recently finding way too many experts calling top??

Edited by Ninja, 08 May 2017 - 09:59 AM.

[Mostlya]

Nothing wrong in the world today. Seems like Alsi ready for new highs in the next few weeks.

I can't even tell anymore if it's a up or down day. I guess by default it's an up day until somebody says otherwise. Weak import and export data out of China but obviously the French elections are very exciting even though the result is 100% priced in. I'm sure there's some illogical train of thought that can help people become biased towards the upside going forward.

 

We're watching the final stages of the bull market in the US but I guess it's entirely possible it pushes a bit higher as the final retail investors buy the top and find themselves becoming unwilling sellers further down the road. Not sure what that would mean for those of us shorting the ALSI but we can only hope we'll continue to move sideways due to the Rand and commodities etc.

 

Still seeing an almost endless stream of market top indicators so sticking by my believe that we're in a distribution phase and a big sell-off will come within a reasonable timeframe.  

[Rulz3]

Nothing wrong in the world today. Seems like Alsi ready for new highs in the next few weeks.

Although is totally against all of my expectations. Seems like I must trade (if I ever trade again) the opposite of my own logic.

[Rulz3]

Nothing wrong in the world today. Seems like Alsi ready for new highs in the next few weeks.

[Halfday]

Naspers at R2600

On a 90 P/E but with a forward estimated P/E of 44...

That must be a joke if they believe it...

Can someone please tell us how Naspers is going to DOUBLE earnings...

Especially when dear old China's growth is slowing and we are very shakey...

 

Perhaps the ZAR going to hell against the Yuan is one of their devilish scenarios to grow earnings...

This the same story for probably most of TOP40 companies with 70% of earnings in foreign currency...

But with most of our TOP40 their share prices may have risen..

but VOLUME has been FALLING for last 3/4 months...

 

Have a look at the charts on a weekly candlestick...

To me thats a bearish story...

If theYankee BULLS get a bit bearish....

We will see!!!

 

Also if Zuma gets secretly voted out...

The ZAR will strengthen so much that the TOP40 will go close to zero...

You never know!!!

 

Bulls are probably still laughing about catching us with our shorts down yesterday...

This happened a few weeks ago on a Friday...

Same thingy..stop running /gunning all hell out of it..

Damn!!!

[Ninja]

Naspers at R2600

[Rulz3]

I quit! The alsi is going to have its best day in weeks!!

Goodluck to the guys still fighting. Want to go on but I have lost enough now.

 

Will continue to comment here, but will be come a fan/spectator and not a player.

[Rulz3]

I quit! The alsi is going to have its best day in weeks!!

[Mostlya]

N

 

Hi everone,

 

I hope your shorts were in oil sliding like bananas

 

Not in this market. Everything is a buy

[pointbreak]

Hi everone,

 

I hope your shorts were in oil sliding like bananas

[Dust]

If naspers and rand hedges can only pull back nicely tomorrow.... hopefully can be final nail in the coffin... any counting how many nails left

 

Not if the rand continues dropping like this.... 

 

I don't always understand carry trade... at some point its just not worth the risk... always ends badly on the unwind.

[Ninja]

If naspers and rand hedges can only pull back nicely tomorrow.... hopefully can be final nail in the coffin... any counting how many nails left

[Rulz3]

Neutral day today? Resources gold plat going to keep alsi back from running.

[Rulz3]

Feels like this thing is going to drop hard!!??

[Mostlya]

As if its making new levels and just want to go higher. Worrying.

I believe it's fairly irrelevant. In a normal bull a high is established after which the markets pull back from previous highs and find a bottom at which point a wall of money comes in pushing it back to that previous high. This level is tested where the bulls and bears battle to determine whether it's an ascending triangle or a double top. Once it's breached another wall of money comes in taking it to some kind of new high. The current market isn't reflecting these basic market characteristic. Rather it's reflecting a different psychology as there is a flow of money coming in at any level. While I can't say for sure if it's retail investors you can be sure that this kind of buying is lacking the slim line of logic that experienced investment professionals use to try achieve returns.

 

As Ninja said yesterday this is distribution. Certainly not saying it can't move somewhat higher as those less experienced investors buy tops and create some liquidity but those are the same investors who find themselves on the wrong side of the liquidity trap. The US and Chinese credit markets showing no further rate of change and while they can still turn the tops on they've both become exceedingly concerned about asset bubbles. When the money runs out the buyers at any levels dry up to and the moves down shall begin. 

 

It's just a question of how much pain you're prepared to take and how long you can wait.

[Rulz3]

A new level of absurdity has been reached today. Squeezing away

As if its making new levels and just want to go higher. Worrying.

[Mostlya]

A new level of absurdity has been reached today. Squeezing away

[pointbreak]

i believe ,in the current circumstances, that at 48000 area our market is very much over bough. to wait it out to this point every time, is rather tedious. the alternative is to carry shorts over long periods and holding relatively big capital.... the only other alternative is to take profit regularly - but this always remains a difficult choice.